Tag: stockmarket

Wry & Dry #36 FY-24 From the Murray to… “That would be the Euphrates”. Rats.

In the most flagrant breach of responsible government since that which caused then PM Whitlam to give Federal Treasurer Jim Cairns the DCM in 1975, Victorian Premier Allen has not given state Treasurer Tim Pallas the DCM.

And in abject bovine indifference, the financial media chewed the cud spewed out by the government’s PR machine and effectively said “Tut, tut. Must do better.”

Even the state opposition leader (err, bowler’s name?) couldn’t bring himself to ask for the head of Pallas to be impaled on a spike at the city gates.

Unemployment rate & Emeco deep dive

This week, a new set of ABS Labour Force data was added to the plethora of economic data released in recent weeks. Once again, the impact on RBA interest rate decisions was to the fore. 

This month, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, but the number of people working fell by 21,000.  

So what happened?  

Recovering markets and updates on Aquirian Limited, Emeco, Matrix Composites & Engineering and Dirty Clean Food

First Samuel portfolios have outperformed through deliberate sector positioning—more exposure to small and mid-caps, less weight in the major banks—and strong contributions from technology and gold holdings. To further test portfolio assumptions, we completed an extensive visit to Perth and regional WA, meeting with management teams across key investments.

Our discussions highlighted the strategic progress underway at Aquirian, operational and technological improvements at Emeco, growing diversification and optionality at Matrix Composites & Engineering, and the profitability and distribution expansion of Dirty Clean Food. These company-level insights continue to reinforce our long-term investment positioning.

Rates, Inflation and Retail: Reading the Signals Behind the RBA’s Cup Day Hold

At Investment Matters, we try to avoid focusing on the minutiae of economic and interest-rate policy. Consuming seemingly endless writing on perceptions of the Reserve Bank (RBA) and changes in the underlying data may be a staple for the investment team, but not necessarily critical to Readers.  

But there are exceptions, and the changes over the last week, including the RBA’s decision to hold the cash rate at 3.6% on Melbourne Cup Day, as widely expected, deserve attention due to their impact on markets and the Australian economy.

Reporting Season: Life360, Seven Group Holdings, QBE Insurance Group

Deeper into Profit Reporting Season this week, with several portfolio companies reporting results. We flagged in recent weeks that we expect significant volatility in share prices associated with this year’s results. Twenty years ago, share price changes were more muted, but several issues have arisen that increase the volatility of results in ASX’s two reporting seasons in February and August. 

Steady start to reporting season: Beach Energy and Garda Property Group

An uneventful first week of Profit Reporting Season with only Beach Energy bringing forward its results to Monday. We also caught up with the management team of our strong-performing Garda Property Group this week. 

In this edition of Investment Matters, we update clients on the Beach Energy and Garda results. 

FY-25 in Review: Navigating Markets with Discipline, Diversification and Perspective 

Post it with 'year end review' text

The 2025 financial year has been shaped by a dynamic mix of economic shifts, policy recalibration, and geopolitical developments that continue to test established market assumptions. 

Looking more broadly, the global economic and political landscape in FY25 has been shaped by significant challenges and unexpected developments. Arguably, the greatest single source of volatility has been the election and early presidency of Donald Trump, whose return to office has unsettled markets and policy norms alike. Many established pillars of economic thinking have been tested, sparking renewed debates over the roles of tariffs, protectionism, and central bank independence. These tensions have played out within an increasingly bipolar geopolitical context, heightening uncertainty and underscoring the value of a resilient, diversified investment approach to navigate the years ahead.

Is the ASX shrinking? 

ASIC, the corporate regulator is taking the first step to make it easier for companies to join the ASX and bolster a dwindling market for floats. This move is considered by some to be the most significant change to listings for almost a decade.
In this week’s Investment Matters, Craig Shepherd explains why the ASX is failing to attract new companies and how we manage this decline in listed companies while positioning clients’ portfolios for growth.

Your Investments and the National Accounts 

The latest ‘National Accounts’ (i.e. GDP and how its constituents contributed) released (this week) give cause to reflect on how your investments consider trends in the data. 

The National Accounts is the scorecard for the RBA, politicians and policymakers alike. 

It is useful to be reminded that the RBA and the US Fed have roughly similar aims. 

“The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is maximum employment and price stability. In its simplest terms, we want everyone who wants a job to be able to find one and for inflation to average 2 per cent per year.” John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (March 2016) 

In Australia, the Reserve Bank Act 1959 notes the Board’s duty to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. 

Similar goals often inform politicians, although it can reasonably be said that pure power and politics also play a part in their motivations.

Lynas and Develop Global: Rare Earths, Critical Minerals, and Geopolitical Tailwinds Driving Mining Stocks in 2025

During May there are many opportunities for companies to update the market. These include investor conferences such as Macquarie Bank in early May and dedicated Investor Day’s that individual companies provided to analysts and the broader investment community. 

In addition, some companies with different financial year reporting timetables update the market. Companies such as Macquarie Bank and Nufarm are examples from this month. 

Clients may have noticed the sharp rebound in the share market in recent weeks, and we would note that the opportunity the sell-off in April provided proved beneficial to returns. We were net buyers, reducing our cash holdings in April, and the sell provides opportunities to add to Oil / Energy and Technology companies. A number of these positions have been handsomely rewarded. 

The Macquarie Bank update pointed to long-run value creation. 

This week’s Investment Matters will focus on the Nufarm result, Investor Day presentations from Seek Limited and Worley Limited, and a quick note on the rare earth miner / industrial processing company Lynas Corporation.

Portfolio Update – May  – the “mini” reporting season 

During May there are many opportunities for companies to update the market. These include investor conferences such as Macquarie Bank in early May and dedicated Investor Day’s that individual companies provided to analysts and the broader investment community. 

In addition, some companies with different financial year reporting timetables update the market. Companies such as Macquarie Bank and Nufarm are examples from this month. 

Clients may have noticed the sharp rebound in the share market in recent weeks, and we would note that the opportunity the sell-off in April provided proved beneficial to returns. We were net buyers, reducing our cash holdings in April, and the sell provides opportunities to add to Oil / Energy and Technology companies. A number of these positions have been handsomely rewarded. 

The Macquarie Bank update pointed to long-run value creation. 

This week’s Investment Matters will focus on the Nufarm result, Investor Day presentations from Seek Limited and Worley Limited, and a quick note on the rare earth miner / industrial processing company Lynas Corporation.

ParagonCare – the virtue of new management and new business lines 

In this week’s update, we delve into insights regarding ParagonCare’s recent strategic movements. Read the previous week’s Investment Matters. Photo © Bambambu   from Via Canva.com` Copyright 2025 First Samuel Limited ParagonCare (PGC) has been a long-held position in clients’ Australian equities sub-portfolios. First Samuel clients are collectively one of the largest institutional shareholders of the […]

2024: The year in review and looking ahead

© 2025 First Samuel Limited Photo ©pixelshot from Via Canva.com The Market The week: ASX and Wall Street FYTD: ASX and Wall Street Strong year – soft ending As we expected at the beginning of the year 2024, it has been a good year for investing in markets around the world. Global equities, especially in […]

Winding down the year, with a bit of RBA Christmas cheer

© 2025 First Samuel Limited Read the previous Investment matters. Photo ©pixelshot from Via Canva.com The Market The week: ASX and Wall Street FYTD: ASX and Wall Street RBA’s Bullock delivers a hint of good news for households in 2025 Investment Matters has noted over the years that markets for the past two decades have […]

Opportunities for reflection, celebration, caution and patience

Read the previous Investment matters. Photo © Fatih Kaya from Via Canva.com © 2025 First Samuel Limited Following a week’s hiatus, this week’s Investment Matters is chock full of topics relating to portfolio positions, the market overall and updates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.  Each topic highlights opportunities for reflection, celebration, caution and patience.  […]

Nufarm – investment update

Read the previous week’s Investment matters. Photo © Fatih Kaya from Via Canva.com The Market Nufarm – A good result The FY-24 results for Nufarm, the global crop protection and seeds business, and Top 10 position in clients’ Australian shares sub-portfolios, were released last week. The results were good and by yesterday the stock’s price […]

NIB and the Health Insurance Sector

Read the previous week’s Investment matters. Photo © Fatih Kaya from Via Canva.com The Market NIB Holdings   In recent missives, we have discussed our portfolio investments in businesses which have leveraged to the rising influence of Government spending. In part, this spending by Government reflects a need to support the infrastructure requirements of a rising […]

US election – What to expect from the market

© 2025 First Samuel Limited Read the previous week’s Investment matters. Photo © Sora Shimazakifrom Via Canva.com At recent First Samuel CIO Dinner events, the question of the US election was regularly raised. We responded that the market had built in the expectation of a Trump victory, with the downside risks relating to a combination […]

Portfolio holdings – HMC Capital and Imdex

© 2025 First Samuel Limited Read the previous week’s Investment matters. Photo © Fatih Kaya from Via Canva.com This week we provide an update on two portfolio holdings. Each listed, one, was a dominant performer on the ASX REIT index in the past 12 months and sits in the Property sub-portfolio, the other forms part […]

Critical CPI print reduces risks of policy error 

this week’s fascinating Investment Matters as Craig explains the trepidations surrounding Wednesday’s release of the estimate for the Q2 Consumer Price Index.

The market responded positively this week to an encouraging reduction in inflation in Australia. The direction and scale of the response can be readily understood – moving from the risk of higher interest rates to the opportunity of lower rates is a positive for Australian companies.

New Financial Year, New Opportunities Part II – Energy sector

Beach Energy, is a leading Australian independent oil and gas exploration and production company. While the energy sector is subject to volatility given underlying commodity prices, Beach Energy’s strategic positioning, future cashflow outlook and growth prospects make it an attractive investment within the sector.
Read this week’s Investment Matters as Craig explains why we think Beach Energy presents a prospective investment opportunity. Many investment banks’ Energy-sector experts see excellent value in Beach Energy at current prices.
Read why we are predominantly interested in owning exposure to movements in the price of gold, both as an insurance policy against global uncertainty or conflict and as a hedge against inflation. Plus, Craig explains why we suspect that the Mining Services and Industrials sector is likely to continue to outperform despite tough conditions.

New Financial Year, New Opportunities – Pathology and Healthcare

Part four of the year-end stocktake will outline our exposure to a final basket of stocks, the gold basket, our mining services exposure, three large industrial companies and two long-held smaller companies.
Read why we are predominantly interested in owning exposure to movements in the price of gold, both as an insurance policy against global uncertainty or conflict and as a hedge against inflation. Plus, Craig explains why we suspect that the Mining Services and Industrials sector is likely to continue to outperform despite tough conditions.

Year-end stocktake part 4: Gold, Mining and Industrial companies

Part four of the year-end stocktake will outline our exposure to a final basket of stocks, the gold basket, our mining services exposure, three large industrial companies and two long-held smaller companies.
Read why we are predominantly interested in owning exposure to movements in the price of gold, both as an insurance policy against global uncertainty or conflict and as a hedge against inflation. Plus, Craig explains why we suspect that the Mining Services and Industrials sector is likely to continue to outperform despite tough conditions.

Year-end stocktake part 3: Non-bank financials and technology  

Part Three of the year-end stocktake will outline our exposure to non-bank financial stocks and several technology and medical device companies our clients own.
Discover why we have chosen to invest in areas of the non-bank financial sector, including business banking, global and domestic insurance, invoice financing, and insurance.

Year-end stocktake part 2: Lithium and Domestic economy

House connected to lithium battery

This week’s investment sought to highlight the logic and investment fundamentals we are creating in our lithium basket. Once again, the impact of baskets is to increase the number of stocks clients see in their portfolio, from a purely numeric perspective, but not from a thematic perspective.
The stocktake also highlights the economic outlook for our domestic economy exposure by referencing how current conditions mix with the type of management and asset features we are looking for to create an overall exposure.

Understanding Portfolio Diversification: a year-end stocktake 

wooden block representing portfolio diversification

Each week in Investment Matters, we discuss the types of thematics that are crucial in building portfolios. We aim to combine these thematics with thorough bottom-up company research to create a well-diversified portfolio that can outperform in the medium term.
Over the next four weeks, leading into the end of the financial year, we will go towards a more detailed level, looking at individual positions. We will present an update on the portfolio companies, a year-end stocktake.

Is gold the new haven? The mystery behind the price surge

Pile of gold

This week’s Investment Matters will shed light on the surge in the price of gold and gold stocks in the past few months. 

We hold gold stocks in our clients’ sub-portfolios for several reasons. It is therefore useful to understand why increases in the gold price warrant special attention. 

The task for First Samuel is to profit from such price increases. 

In discussing this, I have split this week’s Investment Matters into two lengthy sections. I urge you not to skip straight to the second section (on how we profit from gold prices increases).

Optimistic optimism: strong returns to both Australian and global equities

This week’s Investment Matters will focus on different asset classes, their relative performance, and our broad thoughts on the implications of tactical asset allocation decisions. 

When we survey benchmark performance, we see that Australian and Global equities portfolios have delivered returns well above expected long-term returns for those asset classes this financial year. 

Revisiting takeovers

we’ve maintained higher weights in cash holdings within property sub-portfolios with an expectation that a significant rises in interest rates would necessitate an increase in cap rates (implied returns on property values), a resultant reduction in property book valuations and trigger a resultant slew of equity capital raises at discounted share prices in order to restore balance sheets to within bank funding covenants.

While the dull shine of copper comes in focus, we shed little light on BHP. Similarly, our focus this week on financial services dives deeper than the four major banks.

Profit Reporting Season – Stockland, Mirvac, Garda and Lendlease

laptop with the words property on it with small colourful illustrated houses

we’ve maintained higher weights in cash holdings within property sub-portfolios with an expectation that a significant rises in interest rates would necessitate an increase in cap rates (implied returns on property values), a resultant reduction in property book valuations and trigger a resultant slew of equity capital raises at discounted share prices in order to restore balance sheets to within bank funding covenants.

While the dull shine of copper comes in focus, we shed little light on BHP. Similarly, our focus this week on financial services dives deeper than the four major banks.

Profit Reporting Season – Sandfire, Perpetual and Judo Bank

This week’s Investment Matters will continue to focus on the recent reporting season.

While the dull shine of copper comes in focus, we shed little light on BHP. Similarly, our focus this week on financial services dives deeper than the four major banks.

Profit Reporting Season – Cleanaway, Emeco, ParagonCare and Worley

This week’s Investment Matters will concentrate on key company results as the reporting season winds down. On balance, market strategists have noted that earnings revisions have been neutral across the board, which is better than historical outcomes of net negative earnings revisions by optimistic investment banking equity analysts. 

Profit Reporting Season – Ventia, Johns Lyng, Earlypay and Nanosonics

Read key company results as the reporting season winds down. On balance, market strategists have noted that earnings revisions have been neutral across the board, which is a better than historic outcomes of net negative earnings revisions by optimistic investment banking equity analysts.

Early profit reporting season and news update

In last week’s Investment Matters we concentrated on the confession season, the period in which companies make early announcements to the market surrounding material changes to upcoming earnings.

This week’s Investment Matters will also concentrate on news flow and early reporting season results.

Confessions of a corporate earnings season

Most ASX-listed companies in Australia have a June fiscal/financial year-end. Accordingly, those with June and December balance days will tend to present their (half-year/annual) financial results to the market in each of the months of February and August.

Perpetual – finding a way to unlock value

In the past year, we have often commented that we’ll exhibit due patience as part of our investment approach. This is required as we often seek to invest in businesses that are significantly unloved and misunderstood and where assets may, therefore be mispriced.

Premier Investments – A deep dive into a new opportunity

Premier Investments brand portfolio diagram showing key brands including Smiggle and Peter Alexander

In recent weeks, clients will have seen the addition of Premier Investments to their Australian equity sub-portfolios. Famously partly owned and operated (whether formally or informally) by Solomon Lew, Premier Investments is amongst the most successful discretionary retailers in Australian history.

Steadfast in its approach

© 2024 First Samuel Limited The Markets This week: ASX v Wall Street FYTD: ASX v Wall Street Steadfast Group Limited is an Australian insurance broking network that provides insurance broking services to businesses and individuals across Australia and New Zealand. The company was founded in 1991 and has become one of Australia’s largest insurance […]

Growing – in two very different ways

In recent weeks, we heard the mildly alarming statistics that the ASX had fallen to a low in October 2023 of 6703.2, lower than the levels seen in the broad market index at the close of October in 2007 (6770).

Inghams: laying golden eggs

Inghams is the dominant supplier of chicken products in Australia. It is also amongst the largest positions in client portfolios. In the past week, it delivered an update on progress within the business across the first half of the fiscal year.

Understanding the rise in mergers and acquisitions

Two people shaking hands with a light blue background

When the share-market does not see value or investment merit in a particular stock the stock’s share price will recede. This could be because the company’s earnings (i.e. profit) outlook is poor (e.g. Bega Cheese Ltd) or perhaps the industry in the which the company operates is struggling (e.g. ARN Media Limited).
But often someone or a company will see value where the share-market does not. The logical outcome of this is one of the more interesting aspects of investment: the merger or the acquisition. Or, in jargon: M&A.