Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig takes a deep look at:
- the investment consequences of the Iran-US ‘understanding’
- what it means for portfolio construction
- RBA’s difficult task
Read this week’s Investment Matters here.
1. Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
Trumpster has been weighed, and found wanting. Mono Princess Pauline. Uncle Albo’s taxation scales fall from his eyes. Starmer’s DCM in sight. G-7 ducks in a row: the lame and the dead. Swiss split.
2. An inconvenient truce – Part I
Trumpster always wanted to be in the pantheon of great historical figures. And he is now worthy of such an accolade. His statue will rest alongside such delusional, unqualified, bumbling and incompetent failures as Hitler (invading Russia), Mussolini (overreach in the Mediterranean in 1940), and Tsar Nicholas II (taking command of the Russian forces on the Eastern Front in the First World War).
Like some of his historical counterparts, Trumpster had worthy objectives: no Iranian nuclear bomb capability; no funding or support of proxies in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen; no missiles; no navy.
But Iran didn’t instantly collapse. Energy prices spiked. Trumpster lost his bottle and then effectively abandoned the war he had started. His risible succession of military threats and last-minute climb-downs signalled indecision and weakness to an enemy well practiced in the study of weakness.
Tehran weighed Trump’s courage on the scales and found it wanting (see later for a spooky historical augury). And it waited until his pain was greater than Iran’s. The came the deal. Or the deal to make a deal. Is a deal that is nothing more than a deal to keep talking about a deal really a deal?
If Tehran had been given the chance to devise its own survival plan, it could not have done much better than Trumpster’s 14-point deal-to-make-a-deal. A deal that rests on a somewhat naïve faith in Iran’s trustworthiness.
And two immediate Trumpster concessions – lifting the naval blockade and waiving the oil sanctions – mean that he has binned his bargaining power before any negotiations on a final deal even begin.
Trumpster worthily joins the pantheon of catastrophically inept wartime leaders.
3. An inconvenient truce – Part II
Former US statesman Henry Kissinger once opined, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy but to be America’s friend is fatal.”1 Consider the Iranian people, Israelis and the Gulf states.2
The Iranian people took to the streets in response to Trumpster’s encouragement (“your hour of freedom is at hand”) and pledge of support (“help is on its way”.) Over 6,500 were arrested, hundreds killed and more than 39 were executed.3 Go figure how they now feel.
The Israelis now have no scope to effectively prevent Hezbollah firing rockets at will at northern Israel. Trumpster has asked that Syria will combat Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is hard to get Israel, Syria and the competing factions and sects of Lebanon to agree on anything, but Trumpster may just have achieved it. Almost no one, in the entire Levant, can think of a worse idea.
And what about Iran’s funding for Hamas and Houtis? Didn’t even make the fine print.
The Gulf states did not advocate for this war, but they are now forced to confront the fallout from it. Iran will not hesitate to use its ability to close the Straits as an economic and political lever of all sorts against UAE, Bahrain, etc.
Trumpster and his backers want the Republicans to win November’s mid-term elections. And will not allow ‘allies’ to get in the way.
1 Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State to Richard Nixon. Between them, they traded away Taiwan’s sovereignty to save America’s pride in the shambles of the Vietnam War.
2 For the avoidance of doubt for American Readers, ‘Gulf states’ does not mean American states that border the Gulf of Mexico. It means countries that border the Persian Gulf.
3 Being 16 protesters, nine dissidents, 10 individuals accused of espionage, and four accused of “armed rebellion against the state.” In May, two women were sentenced to 26 and 27 years in prison, respectively, for “establishing contact with hostile networks and sending visual content and information needed by the enemy… Source: Amnesty International.
4. Mono Princess Pauline
Pauline Hanson’s address to the National Press Club on Wednesday was to a packed house. She came loaded for bear, as it were.
And it showed to Wry & Dry that she is a grossly over-rated weathervane of the fears of one third of Australia’s voters. That is not to say that those fears are not well founded. Those voters are not far-right extremists, they are ordinary people who are just fed-up with the condescension by the political and bureaucratic elite.
They feel they have been shepherded and taught like kindergarten children what their views should be. Views on immigration, climate-change, renewable energy, what Australian flags should be flown, who gets welfare, etc. They hate identity politics, without knowing what that means. They hate people who ‘identify’ as something they are not. To push-back is seen to be racist, sexist, deniers of this and that, elitist, uncaring, xenophobic, etc.
They are not interested in details of, well, anything. Tax rates, number of immigrants, how much funding the ABC gets, etc do not matter. They want someone who speaks plainly. It doesn’t matter if there are contradictions. Or if the sums don’t add up. Or the words get wrangled.
That’s how Wry & Dry sees Princess Pauline’s popularity.
The trouble is not the detail vacuity. It is what Princess Pauline’s role will be if she does get to choose the curtains in The Lodge. Will she be the broad-based mouthpiece and let others manage concepts and details that contain more than one syllable? If so, importantly, who are the ‘others’?
At the moment it’s a one-person band: Mono Pauline.
5. Uncle Albo’s road to Damascus
Like Saul on the road to Damascus, the scales have fallen from Uncle Albo’s eyes. Well, partly.
Yesterday, he effectively admitted that he and Grim Jim had been too hasty/arrogant/dismissive about the significant changes they had made to Australia’s tax regime.
And so he made changes to their proposals about CGT for small and start-up businesses, tax on testamentary discretionary trusts and wide taxation discretion given to Grim Jim. At the media conference yesterday it was clear that neither knew what they were talking about. The detail, such as it was, was in the media releases.
Wry & Dry won’t be tempted to drill down on the changes, not least because they are not yet law. Except to say that aside from the testamentary discretionary trust changes, the backdown package is a PR exercise as appearing to ‘listen’.
However, Wry & Dry will note that it is entirely possible that Uncle Albo might be getting fed up with Grim Jim’s lack of attention to detail and policy reversals. Grim Jim is a smooth, toothsome salesman, who has never worked outside of the cocooned embrace of politics. The federal treasurer should be made of sterner stuff.
Uncle Albo has two well qualified economic people on hand; Andrew Charlton and Daniel Mulino; who might give him pause. Both very smart, successful before entering parliament and articulate. Charlton is charismatic and a mover and shaker. Merlino more reflective and ‘solid’.
Grim Jim will need to lift his game.
6. Starmer’s DCM is within sight
Brace yourselves. Yesterday (this morning Melbourne time), a leftist, former mayor of Greater Manchester (is there a Lesser Manchester?) comfortably won a contrived by-election for a seat in the Commons. He has made it clear he will immediately challenge for the keys to 10 Downing Street SW1A 2AA.
Wry & Dry has read the tea leaves: Starmer has a favourability rating of -48% and only 13% of voters are satisfied with his leadership, while 79% are dissatisfied, marking a historic low in UK polling history. Starmer’s DCM is within sight.
If ex-mayor Andy Burnham succeeds, 10 Downing Street will have its seventh tenant in 10 years,4 a sad rental record unmatched by surrounding homes.
The trouble for the UK is that Andy Burnham will drag the Labour Party from the left-centre position held by Starmer to the socialist-left. He said he will nationalise essential services, and end austerity and deregulation.
The trouble for Andy Burham is that he will theoretically be bound by Labour’s 2024 ‘manifesto’. So, for example, rejoining the EU, imposing a 50% top tax rate, or a death tax on all assets would not be possible. He would not be able to cut welfare to raise funds for defence.
Consequently, he would become a Potemkin prime minister, as one pundit put it. Unless, of course, he calls a general election and can fashion the ‘manifesto’ to his terms. He is in a hurry.
4 Not since the 1700s has there been a period of seven prime ministers in a 10-year period: Pelham-Holles, Stuart, Grenville, Watson-Wentworth, Pitt (the Elder), Fitzroy, North.
7. G-7 ducks in a row
After the intellectual stimulation of the UFC fight on his front lawn, Trumpster looked around the G-7 table in France, and saw a dead duck (Starmer), lame ducks (Macron and maybe even Merz), a political foe (Carney) and a disappointment to him (Meloni). Others (Takaichi, Costa and von der Leyen) added some useful political ballast.
Trumpster didn’t care. All he wanted in France was to have the photo of him signing the MoU with Iran. Which he got for his scrap book.
All the G-6 and the EU-2 wanted was to talk Ukraine. Trumpster was clearly tired from hosting the UFC fight. And readily agreed to meet with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy, who just happened to be walking by.
Trumpster went as far as to say that “Russia should make a deal.” For a successful outcome, it’s better if Trumpster is on the dark side of the moon when that is negotiated.
Trumpster closed the G-7 proceedings with a rambling one hour 50-minute speech.
8. Swiss split
Readers will remember some weeks ago that Wry & Dry reported that the Swiss were going to vote on whether or not to cap the country’s population at 10 million.
On Sunday, the referendum came up with a 54% non, nein, no and nein.5 The government welcomed the no vote, as it would have caused all sorts of problems with freedom of movement in so-called Schengen countries.6 Business leaders also did not want a cap on foreign workers.
However, the other side of the centime is that 45% of Swiss voters have sent a very clear message of bifurcation on immigration policy. The Swiss vote is not as broad-based as the Brexit outcome or the current One Policy One Nation (Australia) or Reform (UK) Parties’ popularity.
Whilst the referendum question was prima facie about a population cap, everyone knew it was less about population and more about significant immigration from countries that have very different cultural traditions to the Swiss.
5 Switzerland has four official languages: respectively French, German, Italian and Romansh.
6 EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland, and minus Ireland and Cyprus.
9. Trumpster welcomes Vegas vulgarity
Readers will be searching long and hard to find a better epitome of the decline of the moral character of the Yoo Ess Aye than Trumpster’s Ultimate Fighting Championship spectacle on the lawns of the White House. This to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the country’s independence.
The transplanting of Vegas vulgarity to the grounds of the seat of presidential power is based on UFC being amazingly popular. Well, so is pornography; will Trumpster next present an OnlyFans stage show in the Oval Office? Actually, he might, if he can get a slice of the profits.
The Roman emperor Caligula had a great deal in common with Trumpster, including pretensions of divinity and a fondness for grandiose, costly building projects,7 many of which were intended to benefit or entertain the plebeians.
But Caligula at least had the sense to provide them both bread and circuses. Trumpster, as a part owner of the company staging the spectacle, provided the circus. But kept the bread.
7Thus squandering the vast sums left in the state treasury by Tiberius.
10. Angus finds a popular policy
Amid the winter gloom of polling numbers, Wry & Dry’s research has found one sunbeam for Liberal federal leader Angus Taylor. Almost half of voters polled supported the statement:8
“Restricting welfare payments, including pensions and unemployment to Australian citizens and current permanent residents.”
He will still be sad that only 16% of voters have him as preferred prime minister.
8 The date was Support: 48%, Oppose: 25%, Undecided: 27%. Source Resolve Political Monitor, published in The Age 16 June 2026.
11. Kennedy Centre now… the Kennedy Centre
Much like an African tinpot dictator, Trumpster has been erecting monuments or re-naming existing buildings after himself. Some examples include:
Trump Accounts: savings and investment accounts for children; Trump-class Battleships: a new fleet of US Navy vessels; Donald J. Trump and the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts; Donald J. Trump United States Institute of Peace; President Donald J. Trump International Airport, Palm Beach; Donald J. Trump State Park, New York; Trump Drive, Montana; President Donald J. Trump Highway, Oklahoma; The Donald J. Trump Justice Complex, Nevada; President Donald J. Trump Highway, Florida; President Donald J. Trump Boulevard, Florida; President Donald J. Trump Avenue, Florida; President Donald J. Trump Ballroom, White House, under construction; Arc de Trump, planned triumphal arch in Washington, D.C, planned; President Donald J. Trump Bridge, near Douglas Lake, Tennessee, planned; eight Trump Towers, four Trump Towers under development; 15 Trump Towers cancelled or never completed; three Trump Plaza cancelled or never completed; 12 Trump-named buildings; 14 Trump-named buildings cancelled or never completed; 16 Trump National Golf Clubs; four Trump International Resorts and Golf Clubs; four cancelled or never completed Trump International Resorts and Golf Clubs; one Trump Casinos; seven Trump Casinos demolished, closed or sold; and four Trump Casinos four cancelled or never completed.
But last weekend, the list was shorter by one: Donald J. Trump and the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts. A judge ordered that as Congress named the building, only Congress could rename it. The words ‘Donald J. Trump’ were erased.
Trumpster was heard to be sobbing.
12. SpaceX fees
The whole world, well, maybe only those interested in money, was interested in how rich investors in SpaceX would become. And that includes SpaceX employees. Aside from the trillion and then some by which Elon Musk’s balance sheet will now be weighed.
Wry & Dry wants to shed a tear for the investment bankers who arranged the deal. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each trousered $100m, and Bank of America, JPMorgan and Citigroup $77m each. The fees will total over $500m.
And that doesn’t include the lawyers.
13. Trumpster weighed and found wanting – an historical musing
Trumpster’s failed Iranian adventure might be viewed as an augury. Readers should remember that Iran was once called Persia.
And should also consider Babylonian King Belshazzar (died 539 BC). Belshazzar was a proud, spendthrift and corrupt king. According to the Book of Daniel (5:26-28) Belshazzar hosted a massive feast, when a supernatural hand appeared and wrote the inscription “mene, mene, tekel, parsin” on the palace wall.
This event is interpreted as a divine judgment against Belshazzar, marking the end of the Babylonian Empire. Daniel interpretated the message: ‘Mene’ means that God has numbered the days of your reign and brought it to an end. ‘Tekel’ means that you have been weighed on the scales and found wanting. ‘Peres’ means that your kingdom has been divided and given over to the Medes and Persians.”
Whilst the origin of the terms ‘the writing is on the wall’, ‘your days are numbered’, and ‘you have been weighed and found wanting’ is interesting, it is also curious than Belshazzar soon died, when Babylon fell to the Persians, as predicted. The Persians were led by Cyrus II, in 539 BC.9
Is Trumpster a modern-day Belshazzar, who has also lost to the Persians (Iranians). He has been weighed and found wanting. Are Trumpster’s days numbered?
Just askin’. Image Trumpster instead of King Belshazzar in Rembrandt’s famous painting:
Belshazzar’s Feast, by Rembrandt. National Gallery London. Source: Wikiart.org. Public domain.
9 Cyrus II was the founder of the Achaemenid Empire, which covered most of West and Central Asia. He is exalted in Judaism for his role in freeing the Jewish people from the Babylonian captivity following the Persian conquest of Babylon. This event is described in the Bible as the return to Zion, whereby displaced Jews were repatriated to what had been the Kingdom of Judah, thus enabling the resurgence of Jewish sovereignty in Israel.
Cyrus’s reign played a crucial role in defining the history of Iran for well over a millennium, as future Persian empires often viewed the Achaemenid era with deference and as the ideal example to emulate. He remains a cult figure in modern Iran, with his Pasargadae tomb serving as a spot of reverence for millions of Iranians.
Snippets from all over
France closes Chinese ‘police stations’
Since early 2026, French counterintelligence services have dismantled nine clandestine structures operating in France under the direction of China’s Ministry of Public Security. The sites were notably used to track down dissidents. (Le Monde 18 June)
Wry & Dry comments: “The AFP does not believe there is an active Chinese police presence in Australia.”.
Trumpster’s anti-wind spend
The Trump administration will pay almost $800mn to withdraw from offshore wind leases with power producer Invenergy, in exchange for investments in fossil fuel and geothermal projects in the US instead. (Financial Times 18 June)
Wry & Dry comments: Interesting, paying companies not to uninvest.
Germany’s far-right party set to win state election
The AfD looks set to take power in a German state for the first time. (Deutsche Welle18 June)
Wry & Dry comments: AfD is a far-right party. The election is in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September.
English council bans Union jacks
Oxfordshire county council has launched a legal battle to ban raising Union Flags in the street. The Liberal Democrat-led authority has applied for a High Court injunction to stop people placing the flags on or near public highways. (UK Telegraph 18 June)
Wry & Dry comments: St George’s Crosses and Union Flags have become a regular sight on England’s lamp posts across the country since the Raise the Colours campaign took off on social media last summer.
Ukraine: Inside Russia Today
Ukraine attacked Moscow with nearly 200 drones, in its largest strike on the city of the war so far, and another demonstration of its ability to reach deep into Russia. (Economist 19 June)
Wry & Dry comments: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said it was in response to Russia’s attack on Kyiv earlier this week, which set an 11th-century monastery ablaze.
It figures
- -7.6%: BMW share price on a profit warning, the shares fell to a 6-year low. Blame Chinese cars.
- 0.0%: Australia. Change in official interest rates. For now.
- 0.0%: USA. Change in official interest rates. For now.
- 2.8%: UK. Inflation, unchanged.
- 48.9: USA. Consumer-sentiment in June, up from a record low of 44.8 in May.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“These fools, who think I haven’t been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are ‘tumbling’ down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
Trumpster, writing on Truth Social, responding to criticism of his Iran deal.
Wry & Dry comments: Such a clever man. Responsible for the stock market record high. Whose fault will it be if the market crashes?
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!