Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig takes a deep dive into four companies:
- Reliance Worldwide: a useful, if uncomfortable, case study in why manufacturing capacity moves to the US
- Emeco: focus on cash flow, balance sheet strength, and the path to higher utilisation.
- Judo Capital: an unfortunate profit update
- Metcash: navigating a very complex consumer environment
Read this week’s Investment Matters here.
Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
Australia now has its own Strait of Hormuz. Garbage and potholes one month, PM the next? Which country has negative trust? Changing a political party’s name invites cynicism. Home auction ‘clearances’ collapse – now there’s a surprise. Teals bid for Senate.
1. Australia’s Strait of Hormuz
Australia has its own Strait of Hormuz, that can also be closed at a whim: the Greens. Y’see, the Greens didn’t like Uncle Albo/Grim Jim’s tax changes. And like Iran with Trumpster, the Greens have its own Strait of Hormuz: the balance of power in the Senate.
Uncle Albo/Grim Jim were amazingly keen to pass the first part of the tax legislation before parliament rose for the winter recess. The plan was to avoid scrutiny and forensic revelation of errors, contradictions and just plain stupid ideas. Yesterday’s backdown on the ‘widow’s tax’ followed those on the ‘death tax’, and the many CGT ‘carve-outs’.
All examples of the haste with which the tax changes were decided. The ‘community consultation’ was farcical, a two-day talk-fest of mostly sympathetic people and daily responses in the media to each new irregularity.
So, with Uncle Albo’s watch ticking, there was urgency for a deal to open the Senate’s Strait of Hormuz. The Greens demanded their 30 pieces of silver. “You: ban SMSFs from borrowing to buy residential property and delay the NDIS reform legislation. We: will wave through your legislation.”
Just before midnight, Uncle Albo caved. The Greens waved.
The Senate’s Strait of Hormuz opened yesterday afternoon. Uncle Albo/Grim Jim achieved their objective with only minimal pain, which will effectively be palliated by the time parliament resumes.
2. Managing a different sort of garbage
There is a man who a month ago was worrying about garbage collection and potholes in Greater Manchester. In three weeks, he might be leading the sixth largest economy in the world. Really?
Yes, really! Wannabe UK PM Andy Burnham (“call me Andy”) has to confront the simple maths of being the leader of not only a nation, but also a parlous economy.
He must make tough choices that will upset many: borrow more (cue bond market sadness, Sterling even greater sadness), increase taxes (already 36% of UK’s GDP is tax revenue), or cut public spending (political suicide for a party that won the election with only 33% of the vote – hence 200 very marginal seats of Labour’s 403).
Of course it will be a blend of sadnesses: markets’, taxpayers’ or Labour MPs’ employment in three years. Who will be most sad will depend on whom he appoints as Chancellor of the Exchequer (i.e. Treasurer). The incumbent, the self-identified glass-ceiling-breaker1 but hopeless, Rachel Reeves will get the DCM. Her sobriquet ‘Rachel from accounts’ said it all.
Prior to the last election, the now DCM’d Starmer saw the political and marketing advantages of Ms. Reeves. The disadvantages were not ignored by Starmer, he just didn’t see them: no hard business experience. She spent six years working at the Bank of England and then three years for a bank, running a customer relations department. Really?
On Monday, Andy left Manchester station wearing a T-shirt, jeans and Adidas trainers. He arrived at London Euston station wearing a smart business suit, crisp white shirt and neutral tie. Not knowingly, his chameleon rail-journey-transformation is the epitome of his political career: changing to suit whatever is required at the time.
1 She was the first woman at No 11, the home/office of the Chancellor of the Exchequer and next to No 10 Downing Street.
3. US: negative trust?
The Trumpster’s caprices have put the US into negative trust. The 2026 Lowy Institute Survey was released on Monday. It is a survey of 2,117 Australians, taken in early/mid-March. It is worth have a squiz at Lowy Institute Poll | Lowy Institute to explore some most interesting results.
For Wry & Dry, the chart below provided food for thought. Or rather, confirmed what might be obvious: the US now partners the despots.
Coincidently, the Pew Research Centre surveyed more than 42,000 people across 36 countries. And, not surprisingly, found that most had an unfavourable view of the US.
Wry & Dry just cannot understand it all…
4. What’s in a name?
Readers will be aware of the rise to prominence of the UK right-wing Reform Party. It’s sort-of equivalent to Princess Pauline’s Mono Nation Party. Reform is now leading the UK polls.
Source: UK PollCheck, 19-22 June, survey of 2,993 voters.
But, Readers may not be aware of an advertisement that appeared in various Australian newspapers on Tuesday. This was placed by the Australian Electoral Commission, giving notice of an application to the change the name of a registered political party.
The Australian Federation Party (AFP) now wishes to be known as Reform Australia.2
Thereby hoping to give a sense of somehow being aligned with Reform UK. Another headache for the Libs and Gnats. And see later article on the Teals’ Senate bid.
2 AFP was formerly the Trumpet of Patriots Party, which in turn had its origins in the Country Alliance. It currently has about 2,600 members. Trumpet of Patriots won 2.6% of the first preference votes in 2025’s Senate election.
5. Auction clearances
Wry & Dry will not be tempted to draw conclusions from one weekend’s home auction results. Or suggest that Readers might join the dots between Uncle Albo/Grim Jim’s budget and subsequent auction clearance rates.
Only to say that 12 months ago, the combined capital cities’ average auction clearance rate was 65.3%. Last weekend it was 47.4%.3
Just sayin’.
3 Source: Coality, cited in The Australian Mon-22-Jun.
6. Teals bid for the Senate
Governments are made in the House, but legislation requires the Senate. Which is why a pair of Teals (Zali Steggal and Allegra Spender) will form a political party: Community Strong Australia. The party will not have a leader, but its candidates will be chosen by the two founders.
Good luck with both the name and the empty structure.
But hats off for finally understanding that in the House the Teals haven’t moved the needle on any dial. And with a registered party, it can be placed ‘above the line’ on the Senate ballot paper, meaning more votes and the ability to trade preferences.
Steggal and Spender have respectively voted with the Greens 79% and 71% of the time, compared to 19% and 26% for the Coalition. Wry & Dry will not guess where their Senate preferences might go.
That’s another headache for the Coalition. But wait, there’s more pain. Mono Nation party already has four Senators. On current polling it will pick up another five at the next election, mostly all at the Coalition’s cost. The Greens currently have 10 Senators, and might lose two.
Before the next election, each of Uncle Albo and whoever leads the Coalition will being doing their best to destroy Princess Pauline and her Mono Nation party. For Uncle Albo, it will be to manage legislation. For the Coalition, it’s for survival.
7. Anatomy of an accounting scandal
Wry & Dry was this week reminded of a line in that compelling Netflix series “Anatomy of a Scandal.” There, the rising star of the UK government was told that he was about to be exposed as having had an affair with a junior colleague. The PM sent around Downing Street’s communications chief to explain how to deal with the media.
“Limit your comments to this: admit to the affair, regret it and apologise to your family and constituents,” he said. “Do not deny. Denials have a habit of coming around and biting you on the a***.”
Clearly, the KPMG chairman, CEO, Head of Audit and two senior KPMG audit partners missed the Netflix series. Had they seen it, they might not have covered-up KPMG’s misuse of confidential client information to assist in it obtaining new clients for their audit practice. And avoided the resulting defenestration of the Big Four accounting firm’s reputation over the past week before a Senate Standing Committee.
Readers will know that there is much more to this scandal, brought to light by a disregarded whistleblower. There will be fewer first-class overseas vacations for KPMG partners this year.
The CEO and Head of Audit had already given themselves the DCM. The duo became a quintet on Tuesday when the chairman and the two senior audit partners were abruptly given the DCM. They will now have more time to reflect on their sins. And watch the fictional Anatomy of a Scandal.
8. Le Creuset clues
Peter Murrell, the former CEO of the Scottish National Party and former husband of the former First Minister of Scotland was sentenced to five years and three months in the slammer. He had embezzled £400,000 from those generous Scots.
It has now been revealed that the clue that led the police to charge Murrell was the SNP credit card statements. Why was a political party with so little money in the bank buying high-end cookware from Le Creuset?
Then, as they say, one thing led to another. Investigation led to charges, which led to a trial, which led to sentencing. And on Tuesday he was led away to a venue where a Le Creuset is unlikely to be found in the kitchen.
9. Vance’s run has begun
The next US presidential election isn’t until 2028. Which means that the ‘primaries’ commence in February that year. Which means that more obvious canvassing/jockeying/lobbying/influencing will start in the middle of 2027.
Good grief that’s just 12 months away. But wait, the news gets even worse: one of the two leading Republican contenders has begun campaigning.
J.D. Vance, the robotic, intelligent and earnest vice president, has spent the Trumpster presidency trying to curry favour with Tucker Carlson, the very conservative and very influential political commentator. Vance has also been eager to take credit with Carlson and his acolytes for bringing the Iran war to an end. He has kept quiet about Trumpster’s foreign policy. The key reason is that he disagrees with it.
Equally, he recently published another book, “Communion.” The book chronicles his conversion to Catholicism (from lapsed evangelical Christian). He is a staunch opponent of childlessness, gun control, abortion, and same-sex marriage. Readers will remember that his first book, Hillbilly Elegy, was a forerunner to his successful Senate campaign in 2022.
Now that the war is over (well, sort of) Vance will become more prominent. And be seen to differentiate himself from the other front runner: Marco Rubio, the charismatic, hawkish and colour-blind Secretary of State. Like Vance, he is a Catholic and very socially conservative.
11. Childcare – unaffordable in Australia
The Economist has analysed childcare costs in 36 OECD countries, and compared them to the average household wage in those countries. The ranking below is by the ratio of cost to household wages.
Only eight countries were assessed as having unaffordable childcare. Australia is one of the eight.
Current $ at PPP; two working adults, both earning the country’s average wage. Source: The Economist.
Snippets from all over
Apple: product prices up, share price down
Apple has increased the price of MacBooks and iPads by about 20 per cent, one of the broadest price rises in its history, as the iPhone maker blamed memory chip shortages caused by the AI infrastructure boom. (Financial Times 26 June)
Wry & Dry comments: Its share price fell 6.1% in response.
All German trains grind to IT caused halt
German rail company Deutsche Bahn (DB) resumed train services after a tech outage halted all trains nationwide for a little more than two hours late Tuesday night. (Deutsche Welle 25 June)
Wry & Dry comments: And Melbournians complain…
Tsar Vlad unhappy with Trumpster
Russia has accused the US of abandoning efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine after Donald Trump appeared to be shifting again in favour of Kyiv. (Financial Times 24 June)
Wry & Dry comments: Expect Tsar Vlad to phone Trumpster, and the despot bromance will then resume.
Trumpster’s ‘war powers’ restricted; in theory
America’s Senate voted 50-48 to pass a war powers resolution that seeks to limit Donald Trump from taking further military action against Iran without congressional approval, after multiple attempts by Democrats. (Economist 24 June)
Wry & Dry comments: The resolution does not carry the force of law.
SpaceX: rated CCC
SpaceX was awarded the lowest possible environmental, social and governance rating by index provider MSCI ahead of the company’s record $75bn public float this month. (Financial Times 22 June)
Wry & Dry comments: The CCC assessment means SpaceX has the same score as that awarded to Tsar Vlad’s empire on MSCI’s ESG government rating scale in the wake of his invasion of Ukraine.
It figures
- 4.2%: US: Inflation to May, up from 3.8%. Not good news for interest rates. Trumpster grumpy.
- 4.4%: Australia. Unemployment rate in May, down from 4.5%. Not good news for interest rates.
- 3.6%: Australia. Inflation (‘trimmed mean” – RBA’s preferred measure) to May, up from 3.4%.
- 47: US. Purchasing Manager’s Index in June, falling from 51.6 in May. Not good news.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“My popularity depends on my ability to defend Italy’s national interest. In any case my popularity is none of your concern. I suggest you focus on yours.”
Georgia Meloni, Italian Prime Minister responding to Trumpster’s criticism of her popularity. He was responding to her comment she had not “begged” to have her photo taken with him.
Wry & Dry comments: Meloni’s net approval rating is -9%, Trumpster’s is -20%.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!