Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig defers comments on the CPI spike until after the RBA meeting on Tuesday. And instead focuses on a most interesting critical minerals company: WA1 Resources.
Read this week’s Investment Matters.
1. Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
Charles gives a masterclass in understatement; Trumpster didn’t notice. Melbourne loses seven places in global rankings of what? Snowy Hydro renewable magic pudding battery generates even more costs. UAE gives itself the DCM from Opec.
2. George III’s descendent goes to Washington
On 4 July, it will be 250 years since a rebellion by colonialists against the North American tax policies of King George III became a declaration of independence, which became a war. And with the home ground advantage, the colonialists won, but it took them six years before the Brits raised the white flag and lowered the Union flag. 1, 2
And to celebrate that independence, on Monday, George III’s great-great-great-great-grandson journeyed to Washington. He was also tasked with pouring oil on troubled waters caused by Trumpster stopping oil from reaching friendly waters and making very nasty comments about the King’s PM, the hapless Sir Keir Starmer.
Which is why HM Charles III gave speeches to the boys and girls of Congress and then to a modest dinner party of well-dressed hangers-on at Trumpster’s modest home.
Readers should not assume, as the UK media have portrayed to their royalist readers, that HM wrote the speeches. Nuh. Both were masterpieces of UK civil service wordsmithing; blending some slightly camouflaged barbs at Trumpster, HM’s personal observations and some gentle wit. The subtlety of which would have gone over the heads of the assembled Senators and Representatives and Trumpster’s dinner guests.
The only problem in the House was the address to Congress. The countenance of Vice President Vance (who sat behind HM with the House Speaker) betrayed either severe constipation or gross unhappiness with HM’s speech. Or perhaps both.
Trumpster loved the pomp, was delighted with the gift, enjoyed the photo opp and will ignore the rest.
Wry & Dry is still wondering why the State Dinner wasn’t held at Trumpster’s Mar-a-Lago home in Florida. It would have been a nice little earner for him.
1 The irony is that the Declaration declares that all people are created equal and have unalienable rights to liberty. But it wasn’t until 1865 that slavery in the US was abolished (so much for liberty), women didn’t get the vote until 1920 (so much for equality) and blacks were not fully enfranchised until 1965 (so much for both ideals).
2 The next country to make a unilateral declaration of independence from the UK was the Irish Republic in 1919, and then Rhodesia in 1965. The former has prospered, the latter not.
3. Melbourne: financial capital of…
Perhaps the image of government incompetence has pushed Melbourne’s ranking as a global finance centre down 7 places since last year to 31st. Of the top 50 cities, only Glasgow (-9), Chicago (-8), and Toronto (-8) had larger falls.
Of course, in view of Melbourne paying Glasgow A$830m to hold the Commonwealth Games, Glasgow might now take Melbourne’s place as a global sporting centre.
The annual Global Financial Centre’s report, just released, has few surprises. The top five remain unchanged, but Shanghai, Dubai, Seoul, Tokyo and Zurich all advanced their ranking.
The top 11 centres are:
Source: The Global Financial Centres Index 39, March 2026. Published by Z/Yen.
Almost alarmingly, Sydney’s ranking rose one place to #24, just behind Busan.
Melbourne: financial capital of… Victoria.
4. Snowy Hydro – subterranean fiasco
When Croesus Turnbull in 2016 proudly launched the Snowy Hydro renewable battery, his excitement at the headlines erased the thought that something might go wrong deep underground in them there hills.
The scheme was supposed to be the Magic Pudding3 of renewable energy: use excess wind/ solar power (which there is at certain times of the day) to pump water up a mountain to a holding reservoir. When the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine, pull out the plug and let the downhill momentum of the water generate electricity. Rinse and repeat.
What could possibly go wrong?
Plenty. Consider the usual suspects: wishful budgeting, inadequate interrogation of the possible problems, taxpayer funding, government management, and a plethora of rent seekers.
The original cost was $2 billion. And expected completion was 2021. The total cost is now forecast to be $42 billion with expected completion in 2029.4 It’s not just that the massive tunnelling machines have twice got bogged 800 metres underground, or the management incompetence, it’s the number of workers (50% more than planned) and their compensation (average $250,000).
Sigh.
3 The Magic Pudding is story by Norman Lindsay, which tells of a magic talking pudding named Albert, which, no matter how often it is eaten, continually reforms to be eaten again.
4 Source: Macrobusiness Monday 27 April 2026.
5. OPEC loses key member
OPEC is probably best known for the photos of its Arab members entering glamorous hotels in Vienna (where it is based), each wearing an elegant thobe (a usually white, ankle-length robe) and a ghutra (head scarf) secured with an agal. It is also the world’s largest cartel, with an objective of determining the price of oil by allocating production quotas among its members; and objective that it regularly fails to meet. But it accounts for some 38% global oil production, so it is important.
But on Tuesday it lost a vital member. United Arab Emirates (geographers should think of a federation of seven emirates, travelers should think Emirates and Etihad, tourists Dubai and Abu Dhabi)5 gave itself the DCM. This is quite significant. For two reasons.
Firstly, UAE is the fourth largest OPEC producer of oil (after Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran). OPEC’s influence will be even weaker for its departure. UAE’s daily output is capped at 3.4 million barrels per day. It wants that increased to 5 million.
It is not as concerned with the price; its budget breakeven oil price is about $49, compared to Saudi Arabia’s $81. Once Trumpster’s Gulf adventure is over, UAE’s move is expected to cause oil prices to be lower than would otherwise be the case.
Secondly, the action is a kick in the shins to Saudi Arabia’s prestige. That is not just about Arabia’s perceived leadership of OPEC, but also that a smaller Gulf state is demonstrating its unhappiness with Arabia’s effective neutrality in the current war. The UAE is the closest Gulf state to Israel and the US, and the most hostile to Tehran.
There is a lot more to see.
5 Cricket followers also know that the UAE national cricket team has qualified for the Cricket World Cup on two occasions and the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup on two occasions. The headquarters of the International Cricket Council have been located in the Dubai Sports City complex since 2005.
6. Cut debt by spending more
As the destiny date for Victoria’s embattled premier draws near (November), evermore data arises portraying the fiscal idiocy of both her and her predecessor.
Yesterday, it came from a somewhat authoritative source: the Parliamentary Budget Office. The PBO data drily showed that had the state’s wages bill grown in line with the wage price index and population growth, instead of the actual 7.2% p.a, the annual employee expenses would be $8.5 billion p.a. less than currently.
And Premier Allan’s upcoming budget will show an ‘operating surplus’. Err, nuh. The Victorian government includes revenue from the federal government for capital purposes, but excludes capital expenditure.
Just sayin’.
7. One Policy One Nation’s first test
A coodabeen litmus test of the Victorian government’s unpopularity will now not occur. There is a state by-election in the seat of Nepean (essentially the Mornington Peninsula) tomorrow and Premier Allan has courageously decided not to field a candidate. Nepean is held by the Liberals by a comfortable 6%.
There are three serious candidates (Liberal, One Policy One Nation and Independent) and five optimists seeking a sinecure at the taxpayers’ expense. All eyes will be on the performance of the One Policy One Nation candidate, who has drawn #1 position on the ballot paper.
Given the conservative nature of the seat (the oldest electorate in Australia) and some weird preference arrangements (e.g. a former Liberal Party candidate preferencing One Policy One Nation), Wry & Dry expects One Policy One Nation to win, comfortably.
Which will cause its leader to be even more, err, prominent. Gloom.
8. Speaking of elections
In the UK, local elections are run on a party-political basis. So next Thursday’s nation-wide local elections are a litmus test (there’s those words, again) of the unpopularity of PM Starmer. Some 5,000 seats are up for grabs.
Results will be known at about noon, Wry & Dry time on Friday.
Wry & Dry’s spies in London say that the self-move Budget rental trucks are on standby.
9. Trumpster’s crypto failure
Readers will remember that just before being inaugurated (January 2025), Trumpster issued his own cryptocurrency: modestly called $TRUMP. It was issued at $1.21. For reasons lost in the mists of time, it quickly rose to $45.47. By April that year, for those same reasons, it had fallen to $8.33.
Something had to be done. And it was. Holders of the largest holdings of $TRUMP were invited to a special event with Trumpster (dinner, speeches, etc). The price leapt to $14.66. Trumpster event over, it slumped, and by March this year had fallen to $2.94.
Something had to be done #2. And so, another contest was held last weekend (but for lunch, not dinner), for the 297 largest holders of the crypto. The price leapt to… $4.05. It’s now back to… $2.49.
Source: CoinMarketCap
That’s a fall of 95% from its peak. But, make no mistake, the real churn and burn was over in January 2025. Did the perps pay CGT?
10. “Reporting from under a table…”
It took a nano-second before the first media person at the Annual Correspondent’s Dinner in Washington took to the airwaves to be the first to breathlessly say “I was there. I saw it all.” The there was, of course, the assassination attempt on Trumpster et al last weekend.
The commentary was all about the panic in the room, the rush of secret service folk volunteering to take a bullet for someone else and who of the famous people was first out.
What was not then apparent were two curious actions, both shown by the somewhat weak video coverage of what was a media event.
Firstly, that Vice-President JD Vance bested Trumpster to the exits by a good 30 seconds. Did the secret service consider that JD was more valuable than Trumpster?
Secondly, many correspondents, seemingly prostrate on the floor, raised their mobile phones like periscopes to capture images of the drama to confirm that they were there and to emphasise their vulnerability to death. And to distribute to all of their social media followers.
11. Jewish hate crimes continue
On Wednesday, two more Jewish men were stabbed in London. An Iranian-linked Islamist group (Ashab-al-Yamin) has claimed responsibility. UK PM Starmer condemned the terrorist incidents (as they have been labelled by police).
Perhaps the Jewish community is getting tired of words of condemnation. And they might ask him, “Whose war is this, after all?”6
The leader of the UK Greens hasn’t helped the situation by condemning the way the stabber was arrested. He had zero words of sympathy for the victims nor empathy for the Jewish community.
By the way, people of all faiths in the UK are subject to religious hate crimes. Jews suffered almost 10 times as many hate crimes as Muslims, the second most attacked faith:
- Jew: 106 per 10,000 of that faith
- Muslim: 12
- Sikh: 5
- Hindu: 2
- Buddhist: 1
Source: UK Home Office, published 1 May in The Times
Now the UK government (actually, a division of MI5) has raised the terrorism threat level to “severe”, the second highest level. And the government’s counterterrorism adviser has requested a temporary ban on pro-Palestinian protest. He said the right to life was more important than the right to protest.
This will get sadder.
6 “It’s been absolutely clear. This is not our war.” Starmer, on 1 April, speaking of the Iranian war.
Snippets from all over
Trump brothers in critical minerals deal
A shell company backed by Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump has agreed to merge with a critical minerals group that last year secured up to $1.6bn in US government support to mine tungsten in Kazakhstan. (Financial Times 1 May)
Wry & Dry comments: Err, it may only be coincidence, but Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump are sons of the president of the United States.
UK Greens becoming anti-Semitic
Two Green Party candidates [in upcoming local council elections] have been arrested on suspicion of stirring up racial hatred for allegedly posting anti-Semitic comments online. (UK Telegraph 1 May)
Wry & Dry comments: Someone is making lots of dosh.
Trumpster’s face goes global
The US will begin issuing passports featuring Donald Trump’s face, as the president continues to put his image and name on America’s institutions of state and national symbols. (Financial Times 23 April)
Wry & Dry comments: Sadly for Trumpster, so few Americans travel outside those united states that those unique passports will be rarely be seen.
Tsar Vlad’s African adventure failing
Russian forces have withdrawn from a stronghold in northern Mali as the country’s Moscow-backed regime reels from a series of co-ordinated assaults by extreme Islamists that killed the defence minister and left the ruling military junta shaken. Mali, which turned to Russia for military assistance after a coup five years. (Financial Times 28 April)
Wry & Dry comments: The amazingly corrupt Malian military dictatorship turned to Tsar Vlad for military assistance in 2021 to fight a powerful al-Qaeda affiliate. Epic fail: the jihadists are on the verge of swallowing the entire country. Perhaps the junta should have remained on good terms with their former colonialists: France.
Netanyahu’s political enemies unite
The centrist leader of Israel’s opposition, Yair Lapid, and a right-wing former prime minister, Naftali Bennett, announced on Sunday that they would combine forces in elections later this year. (New York Times 27 April)
Wry & Dry comments: Netanyahu has been in office for most of the past 17 years as the head of the conservative Likud party. After the last election, in 2022, he formed the most right-wing and religiously conservative governing coalition in Israel’s history, made up of far-right and strictly Orthodox coalition partners.
It figures
- 4.6%: Australia. Inflation in the year to March. Expect interest rates to rise next week.
- 0.0%: USA. Percentage point change in US interest rates.
- 2.0%: USA. GDP growth in the year to March, slightly below expectations.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“The United States is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership.”
Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany, speaking on Monday on a school visit in western Germany.
Wry & Dry comments: Trumpster, of course, reacted calmly: “The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of troops in Germany…” There are 36,500 American troops stationed in Germany, plus all the attendant cooks.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!