Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig undertakes a very deep dive on CSL, and why it now is a good investment.
Read this week’s edition of Investment Matters.
1. Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
Wry & Dry returns from his travels to an unchanged world. Consider: Trumpster is still trying to work out how Iran had the temerity to close the Straits of Hormuz when he expressly told them not to. The UK’s fabric is still being washed away by political incompetence not seen since George III & PM Lord North thought to tax the colonialists in North America but not give them the vote.
Victoria’s premier still thinks that massive debt is the stairway to heaven. But Uncle Albo has found a minister who understands that it is not.
Bonus: there’s extra cartoons from Patrick Cook. The world needs a laugh at the minute.
2. Uncle Albo shows a hairy chest, at last
It had to happen. Uncle Albo finally showed his hitherto well-hidden reformist hairy chest, and made a significant economic decision. He, and Health Minister Butler, took the Gillette razor to the well-intentioned, poorly designed and misleadingly named National Disability Insurance Scheme. And shaved $15 billion per annum from the budget. Uncle Albo’s reforms are sensible, measured and fair. And some of the more, err, interesting NDIS services will be slashed.
Wry & Dry writes from a position of considerable knowledge of the good work of the NDIS, but also of the extraordinary abuses. And continues to wonder why it took so long for the government to act to address the latter.
One of the hesitation-reasons to reform has become obvious: fear of a massive backlash. Which is exactly what is now happening. Expect the weekend newspapers to be full of the advocacy groups’ responses. But with commendable foresight about the likely backlash, Health Minister Butler admitted on Wednesday that the root cause of the NDIS shambles was in its design. That is, the original objectives and intent were fine. So, he was saying, let’s redesign it to meet the original objectives and intent. Get over it.
Of course, it would be nice to start all over again. But that ain’t going to happen. The problem will now be trying to change quite a few planks in a wooden boat, and the boat not fiscally sinking.
To be clear (to quote this month’s most used political phrase) the NDIS changes are not comprehensive economic or tax reforms. They amount to sensible expense management. Economic and tax reforms await. Will Grim Jim deliver in his upcoming budget?
3. Trumpster: the 25th Amendment and May Day
Trumpster still hasn’t worked out that members of Iran’s Iranian-War-Negotiating-Team are not property developers. Hence, they do not react to Trumpster’s bulldozer tactics.
Had Trumpster done his homework, he would have known that property-developer-deal-making threats don’t work when the threatened party holds the only negotiating card that matters. That is, one that hold the world to ransom.
The ruling regime in Tehran and the IRGC are laughing at Trumpster each time he ratchets up the threats, now knowing that each threat will be followed by a Taco moment. They don’t have to worry about the welfare of the average Iranian in the street, as they don’t care. All they want is to keep their regime in power.
Knowing that Trumpster doesn’t give a hoot about anything or anybody outside the USA, the question becomes, for how long can he ignore the rising tide of domestic unpopularity? He said yesterday that he has “no time frame” for ending the war. Nuh.
Which brings Wry & Dry to the 25th Amendment to the Constitoosh’n of those United States. Y’see, it is clear that Trumpster is more-or-less insane. And the 25th is the only legal way to oust a sitting president.
Consider his increasingly irrational comments in just the last 10 days: he had threatened to wipe out the Iranian/Persian civilisation and posted an image of himself healing the sick as Jesus Christ. Really? Are these the action of a sane person?
However, it would take a two thirds majority of both the Senate and the House to give him the DCM. Which makes forcing him out a virtual impossibility. Still, that has not stopped prominent figures from floating the possibility. Wry & Dry is not alone.
But wait, there’s more. Next Friday, 1 May, is 60 days after Trumpster formally notified Congress of the first US airstrikes against Iran. Under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, Trumpster must seek Congressional approval to continue military action (although he can take a once-only 30 day extension to facilitate the safe withdrawal of US forces).
Will Republicans in Congress give Trumpsters what he wishes? If it doesn’t, will he revert to Plan B?2
2A plan he himself doesn’t know.
4. The poisoned chalice3 that is UK’s PM-ship
The UK is in a shambles. As is its leadership. The incumbent, the hapless former human rights lawyer, Sir Keir Starmer, has fallen at every hurdle but somehow managed to get back on his horse every time.
But he may not rise from his most recent failure to top a hurdle, that of the hoo-ha about his appointment of Lord Mandelson, Epstein’s best buddy, as ambassador the US.
In fairness, it is instructive to consider the accumulated detritus he was bequeathed.
Readers will recall that the last UK PM to bequeath a moderately sound economy and society to his/ her successor was Tony Blair (Labour), almost 20 years ago. Gordon Brown (Labour) inherited the GFC. David Cameron (Conservative) inherited the GFC debris. Theresa May (Conservative) inherited the divisiveness of Cameron’s two referenda (Scotexit and Brexit). Borisconi (Conservative) inherited Brexit implementation and Covid. Liz Truss (Conservative) inherited the rubble of Borisconi. Rishi Sunak inherited the derision caused by Truss.
Each failed to manage their poisoned-chalice inheritance, and all added to the poison. So Starmer has had to manage the accumulated debris of his predecessors. But, like his predecessors, he has made things worse. The government has run out of money: it inherited a shocking fiscal position, and made it more shocking by reckless welfare spending. Starmer has made more policy U-turns than a new taxi driver in Mumbai. The One Policy (sound familiar?) far right-wing Reform Party is now the most popular party and would win an election (albeit narrowly). Anti-Semitism is not only on the rise, but also becoming more apparent and visible.
And now, who will want Starmer’s job? Well, notwithstanding the overflowing of poison in the chalice, the wannabes will be queueing up. After all, there’s three more years to overcome Starmer’s unpopularity. The below chart tells the story:
Consider also being able to tell your grandchildren that you once lived in Number Ten. By the time that happens, the sands of time will have blown away any memory of success or failure. See also item 10, below.
3 The phrase originates in Shakespeare’s Macbeth. In Act 1, Scene 7, where Macbeth contemplates murdering King Duncan to gain the throne. He likened the act to a ‘poisoned chalice’, recognising that the gain of kingship would be tainted by moral and political repercussions. It’s all about the treacherous nature of ambition. Readers may wish to compare Brutus in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, “For his ambition, I slew him.”
5. Victoria’s spendathon continues
There must be an election upcoming in Victoria. Notwithstanding the parlous state of the state’s finances, Premier Allan has tossed $400m at providing free and discounted public transport. Even S&P Global Ratings spoke out about the spending: it was “another example of how spending that was initially meant to be temporary can prove to be hard to unwind.”
The irony of Victoria offering free public transport might be lost on the premier.
And independent economist Saul Eslake weighed in with, “although [Treasurer Jaclyn Symes] is foreshadowing operating surpluses for the next four years, she is also forecasting cash deficits over the next four years. That is the main reason Victoria’s net debt is forecast to rise by about $41 billion by 2028.”
Sigh.
6. Anniversary
Last Thursday was the 20th anniversary of Australia having net zero commonwealth debt. Today, it’s about $0.8 trillion.
Just sayin’.
7. They never go away
The terrorism risk to Australia’s Jewish community appears to have submerged. But only ‘appears’. The reality is that there are still seriously nasty people out there.
The latest worry is that Islamic State, that loose-knit cross-border collective of extreme anti-Semites, has, in an English language newsletter published this week, urged Muslims to follow the example of the Bondi massacre of December last year. It states that the massacre should be an instruction manual for all Muslims.
It only takes one person with motivation, and a gun or a bomb. And as is known, a get-away plan is not required.
8. It seemed like a good idea at the time
Trumpster was always going to struggle at the upcoming mid-term elections. Invariably, there is a swing against the president’s party. In fact, since 1946, only twice has the president’s party not lost House of Representative seats in the mid-term elections.4
As Trumpster’s party (Republican) holds 218 seats to the Democrats 213 seats, it was clear that something needed to be done to ensure the Republicans retained control of the House.
What better way than to gerrymander seat distribution in states where the Republicans control a state. [Note: in the US, the states control electoral distributions i.e. there is no independent body to distribute seats nationally. What is worse, gerrymandering is legal except on the basis of race].
And what better state in which to gerrymander than Texas, with the boundaries of 38 seats to be shuffled to Trumpster’s advantage. The state complied, with the Republicans expected to win five extra seats from the re-distribution.
Hold the phone! The Democrats are not stoopid. Well, not completely. The tit-for-tat started. They gerrymandered California in response (+ 5 seats). Next will be Utah (+ 1).
Republicans then tackled Missouri (+1), Ohio (+2) and North Carolina (+2). And this week, Democrats gerrymandered Virginia (+4).
It seems that Trumpster’s grand gerrymander plan will have a net outcome of anywhere between only one seat gained and Five seats lost. But that’s on the last election results in those gerried states. On current polling, overall Democrats will ‘flip’ 10 seats. And control the House.
The gerrymandering will result in a more polarised House: candidates will court the most partisan voters. Expect even more nutters in the House.
By the way, it is most unlikely that Trumpster will lose the Senate. But, a few more Tacos and, well…
4 In 1998 (Clinton) and 2002 (George W Bush).
9. AI table tennis robot?
Last week, it was an athletic robot in China winning a half marathon, seven minutes faster than the world record.
This week, it’s an AI-powered robot playing table tennis. The robot, designed and built by Japanese consumer electronics firm Sony, defeated expert table tennis players in a machine-over-human triumph in a major competitive sport.
Click here to see: AI robotic table tennis.
Wry & Dry is looking forward to the moment when this sort of technology reaches the Australian football league. Think about it. No more numbing stories of player injuries, mental health crises or judicial tribunal idiocy to clog the on-field action. And commentators replaced by robots that don’t scream in high pitched voices when anything more exciting than grass growing.
10. Trumpster’s library
There is a weird tradition in the US that retired presidents create libraries of significant objects and significant documents relating to their term in the White House. And entrust them for future historians to examine.
The problem for the designer of Trumpster’s Library (his son Eric) is how to create something that reflects his father’s towering intellect and renowned achievements. He (the son) might turn for inspiration to Shelly’s Ozymandias:5
My name is Donald, King of Kings; Look at my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
But would not realise how Shelly’s poem ends, that is with the inevitable decline of despotic rulers. And that their power eventuates as ephemeral:
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
Nor appreciate the irony: Ozymandis’ (Ramesses II) achievements became ‘level sands.” Trumpster’s achievements, such as they might be, also look like being lost in level sands. Of the Middle East.
5 Ozymandias is the Greek name for the Egyptian pharaoh Ramesses II. Shelly wrote the poem in 1817 in anticipation of the arrival in the British Museum of a 6.5 tonne head-and-torso fragment of a statue of Ramesses II from his mortuary temple at Thebes.
Snippets from all over
Trumpster appointee promises independence
Kevin Warsh, the nominee to be chairman of the Federal Reserve, has insisted he will not be President Trump’s “sock puppet” and vowed to protect the US central bank’s independence. (The Times 22 April)
Wry & Dry comments: He’ll be a marionette, by any other name.
Rebuilding Gaza
Rebuilding Gazawill cost more than $71bn over the next decade, according to the latest estimates by the UN, EU and World Bank. (Economist 23 April)
Wry & Dry comments: And who is going to pay? The Gulf States, early putative benefactors, seem to have some rebuilding themselves.
Tsar Vlad cuts oil to Germany
Russia is planning to halt the flow of Kazakh oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline, hitting a refinery that supplies almost all of Berlin’s petrol and heating fuel. (Financial Times 23 April)
Wry & Dry comments: Tsar Vlad is turning off the tap to supporters of Ukraine.
Young Brits turn yellow
Asked whether they would be willing to go to war for Britain, 50% of those aged 16 to 29 said that “under no circumstances” would they go to war. (UK Telegraph 23 April)
Wry & Dry comments: So, who do they think is going to fight for them? Trumpster?
Ukraine benefits from Orban’s defeat
Ukraine to receive €90bn EU windfall after Orban defeat, offering economic relief to Kyiv as it fends off the Russian invasion. (UK Telegraph 22 April)
Wry & Dry comments: Former Hungarian strongman Victor Orban, and best buddy of Tsar Vlad and Trumpster, had had vetoed the loan. But Hungarians gave Orban the DCM two weeks ago.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“I am possibly the least pressured person ever to be in this position. I have all the time in the World.”
Trumpster, on his Truth Social.
Wry & Dry comments: Err, oil @ $100 per barrel isn’t going to help him in the mid-term elections. Not to mention the rest of the world.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!