Apocalypse tourism. Self-determined. The English Patient.
Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
Craig quickly reflects on the choppy markets and our high cash position. He then deep dives into:
- Santos
- Healius
- James Hardie
For the more complete picture, read this week’s Investment Matters here.
1. Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
There’s a slight bias away from matters Antipodean this week. In fact, it’s 90% non-Australian focussed, as Wry & Dry is fed up with Mono cell, Uncle Albo, Farmer Taylor, etc. Except for where to go when the apocalypse comes. Then, self-determination but not self-sufficiency. The English Patient, err, English Customer. And Piddington, the mouse that roared.
2. Apocalypse tourism
To where should Readers flee in the face of an impending existential catastrophe? Consider rogue AI – a latter-day but earthed Hal1, or an asteroid about to collide with Mother Earth.2 A new study3 has weighed up the alternatives for Readers. And many Readers will not have far to go: Australia is the all-round destination of choice for apocalypse avoidance.
At the other end of the scale, Russia is punished for its politics, geography and climate; it gets the worst rating of any scenario. It’s a paradox: Tsar Vlad has modelled his country’s foreign policy on maximising the chance of catastrophe but has a country that minimises its odds of surviving one.
The Australian advantages are obvious: remoteness, political stability, and self-sufficiency. The problem is the immigration policies of Uncle Albo, Mono Cell Hanson, Gnat Canavan and Farmer Taylor. None would allow all of the apocalyptic refugees to enter.
Mono Cell would exclude Muslims, Indians, Chinese and Africans; and welcome Russians, MAGA supporters and Eastern Germans. Farmer Taylor would admit only skilled white-collar refugees and anyone with net worth greater than $5m. Gnat Canavan would admit only those willing to pick fruit on remote farms, work at a nuclear reactor, or happy to work on building The Great Inland Railway. Uncle Albo would admit only Kylie Minogue and those who would join a left-wing union.
The catastrophe survival study also rated Tasmania even higher than the rest of Australia: “a refuge in a refuge,” which is scientist-speak for an island off an island. Its secret weapon is hydroelectric power, which keeps working even when the sun’s been blotted out by nuclear winter or volcanic ash. And unlike solar, the entire business model of which rather depends on there being a sun.
More broadly, Argentina, Brazil, New Zealand and Uruguay round out the shortlist of preferred havens: competent, stable, agriculturally sound, and blissfully irrelevant to anyone’s missile-targeting spreadsheet.
It turns out the apocalypse rewards exactly the qualities everyone mocked as boring.
1 The sentient general-intelligence but rogue computer in 2001: A Space Odyssey.
2 Deep Impact, perhaps.
3 In “No Place To hide” led by Florian Jehn of Goethe University
3. Self-determined
The Scottish First Minister4, the Welsh First Minister and the Northern Irish First Minister walked into a press conference. Sadly, it wasn’t a joke.5
The first ministers had gathered in Cardiff to announce solidarity in their shared dream of ‘self-determination’. In so doing, they tactfully skipped the part where none of them could self-determine their way out of the uncomfortable truth: none would exist without massive subsidies from the nasty English.
It’s a curious brand of independence that insists on sovereignty while keeping the credit card active. The Scottish National Party almost fooled the Scots into believing that Scotland could survive without the English. The Scots were smarter than that. The situation in Northern Ireland and Wales is even worse, each a fiscal basket case.
The timing of this self-determination helped: Trumpster, in Ireland to watch golf at his own course, called Irish reunification “fantastic”. This would be less a considered geopolitical assessment than a man trying to annoy the Brits for not joining him in bombing Iran.
Politics rarely offers a cleaner irony than Irish unity edging forward because Britain declined a war. Naturally, none of the assembled nationalists paused to ask whether an independent Scotland or Wales or a unified Ireland would have joined Trumpster’s Iran war.
The answer is obviously ‘no’. But a good grievance, unlike self-sufficiency, never goes to waste.
4 ‘First minister’ is a Clayton’s PM of a UK regional parliament
5The line is not Wry & Dry’s. It belongs to Tom Peck of The Times.
4. The English Patient
Exciting news from the UK’s Sussex Health and Care. It has just recommended that patients should no longer be called “patients”. They should, it suggests, be referred to as “customers”, “clients”, or “experts by experience”.
Brilliant. Congratulations, sir. That heart attack you had five years ago? It makes you an “expert by experience” on myocardial infarction. Please assist with this coronary angioplasty.
It gets better. According to the guide, when you leave the hospital, you are not being “discharged”, because that sounds too ‘final’. No, you are being given a ‘warm handover’. Yes, Readers would have noticed that it sounds vaguely like an office grope, but, well, “shush”. Be grateful that cosy and “relatable” language is being used to stop you feeling “alienated” or “intimidated”.
Didn’t turn up for your hospital appointment? Then you should not be called “hard to reach” or “difficult to engage” but “underserved”.
Naturally, this linguistic makeover can’t stop at “patient.” A bedpan, one imagines, becomes a “personal waste solutions receptacle.” Body wash is rebranded “dignity-affirming skin refreshment fluid.” The waiting room? A “pre-consultation lifestyle lounge.” Nurses become “wellness facilitators,” and the drip stand is surely due an upgrade to “ambulatory hydration companion.”
Death itself, presumably, will need softening; perhaps ‘achieving final discharge status’ or, more on-brand, a ‘permanent warm handover.’ Or even a ‘cold handover’. Even the mortuary might rebrand as a ‘dignity transition suite,’ because nothing says compassion like a euphemism doing acrobatics to avoid the word ‘dead’.
Somewhere, a committee is being paid handsomely to workshop these terms, blissfully unaware that renaming the bedpan does nothing whatsoever for the person still needing it emptied. Language evolves, apparently; just never toward anyone actually getting better care.
5. Piddington?
Piddington is not how Kiwis pronounce Paddington. It is a tiny English village that has done what Brussels, Scotland, and several strongly worded newspaper columns could not: split the United Kingdom.
The Piddingtons used nothing but very English bunting, a parish council, and 285 people who apparently had a very strong opinion about an immigrant camp being established in their blessed plot. The village voted to secede from the UK.
Y’see, on Tuesday, a woman with immaculate blow-dried hair climbed onto a small stage to announce the result; a 91% landslide, and one mysteriously spoiled ballot. She announced the result with the barely-contained joy of a woman who already knew the ending, because she wrote it.
Now Piddington faces the fun part: actual independence. Imagine passports at the hedge line. Border control administered by whomever is free after the Women’s Institute meeting. And, awkwardly, the exact same illegal-crossing playbook they seceded to avoid, just relocated to their own new frontier.
Meanwhile the Prime Minister, informed his country had shrunk by one village, expressed “understanding” and changed absolutely nothing.
The rest of a slightly smaller Britain had a nice cold pint about it all.
6. Europe realises that Ireland is more than Guinness
There’s a bit of concern about Russian navy kit floating off the coast of Ireland, not sailing anywhere. Just, well, floating.
Y’see, Ireland guards 75% of the world’s transatlantic cable traffic with eight patrol boats (of which four are operational) and with an enduring philosophy: neutrality is much cheaper than radar.
No jets, no submarine detection, and no air defence, so Russian spy ships can happily loiter over the internet’s most significant undersea plumbing, with their sailors watching reruns of The Hunt For Red October.
At 0.2% of GDP, Ireland spends less on defence than any EU country. It hosts Apple, Google and Meta’s data centres on an infrastructure bet that assumes the 21st century wouldn’t include Russians or Tsar Vlad.
One lawmaker insists Russia is barely beating Ukraine, so it’s hardly a threat. That sort of reassurance ages beautifully right up until a cable gets cut in the middle of the night, and Europe’s (and Ireland’s) streaming of The Diplomat goes dark.
7. Mr Carney goes to Strasbourg
Canada, Readers are being told, might not quite join the EU. But PM Mark Carney insists he only wants a “unique alliance,” which is diplomatic for “everything but the paperwork.”
He’s touring Strasbourg this week, addressing the European Parliament, watching von der Leyen deliver her State of the Union, and being generally fussed over like the exchange student everyone wishes they’d adopted instead of Britain. The EU, not surprisingly, reserves its warmth for countries it hasn’t already divorced.
The Canada appeal is obvious: 10% of its people speak French, it’s NATO-aligned and oil-and-mineral-rich with stuff that isn’t found in the EU.
And there’s the real qualifying credential, a thorough sickness of Trumpster, who’s spent the year trying to annex Canada by insult. Nothing unites a continent like a shared grievance.
Which leaves Australia, last seen floating this idea via former dodgy businessman John Elliott in the early ’90s, to widespread mockery. Elliott was merely thirty years early.
Will Uncle Albo now have the wit to take the heat off domestic politics (immigration, taxes, inflation, declining productivity, interest rates, etc) and run an EU ‘associate membership’ flag up the flagpole?
And before Trumpster decides to make Australia the 52nd state?
8. Qantas showers favours on… Minister for Transport
Federal Minister for Transport Catherine King has disclosed her receipt of a Qantas lifetime platinum card, the frequent flyer loyalty equivalent of sainthood. This gift normally requires roughly a decade of flying and a cool $1 million in fares to earn 75,000 status credits.
Minister King’s office insists she simply flew that much, which raises the question of what, exactly, the federal transport minister was doing for a quarter-century that wasn’t her job as the member for Ballarat.
This is the same minister who blocked Qatar Airways’ extra flights, earning herself the nickname “Minister for Qantas,” a title now looking less like satire and more like a job description. Her boss, Uncle Albo, meanwhile, spent his own stint as transport minister soliciting upgrades from Alan Joyce, before denying it entirely.
Governments will always insist that policy and freebies are unrelated. Undaunted, Qantas will keep handing out lounge access arrangements like communion wafers at St Mary’s on a Sunday. But, somehow nobody in government has learned that useful word: no.
9. A bank story
All Wry & Dry wanted to do was to pay a small tax bill using his bank credit card. The following is a truncated story of what happened next.
At W&D’s credit card bank (Westpac):
Bank branch Help Desk person: “No, you cannot use your credit card for BPay.“
W&D (showing her the ATO payment form): “But the ATO form states: “Contact your bank or financial institution to make this payment from your cheque, savings, debit or credit card.” This is what I am doing, following the ATO’s instructions. Only a fool would disobey the ATO.”
Bank branch Help Desk person, pointing to another person behind another counter: “I cannot help you. Try asking the teller, over there.”
Bank branch teller, responding to W&D: “No, I cannot help with BPay. Ask the Help Desk person.”
W&D: “I just did. She sent me to this counter.”
Bank branch teller: “Well, I cannot help. The ATO form is wrong.”
W&D (sighs): “Okay, forget BPay, let’s see what else is on the ATO form. Ah, I can pay directly to the ATO’s bank account at the RBA. The BSB, etc are on the form.”
Bank branch teller (swinging the bank’s technology into action, brought up the right screen, and entered the ATO’s BSB, account number and reference): “Now, what is the address of the RBA?”
W&D: “I don’t know. But it’s okay as all that is needed is the BSB and account number.”
Bank branch teller: “No. The yellow bits on my screen must be completed, and that includes the bank address. The payment will not work unless I fill in the yellow boxes.”
W&D (sighs): “The only RBA address I know is RBA’s building in Sydney: 65 Martin Place, Sydney, where interest rate decisions are made. Put that in.”
Bank branch teller (typed in the address): “Oh, there’s a pop-up on my screen. The bank won’t accept responsibility if the transfer goes to an incorrect account.”
W&D: “Hang on, if you have the ATO’s bank account details, as on the form, and you type them in correctly, and something goes wrong it’s the bank’s problem, not mine.”
Bank branch teller, pauses: “What do you want to do?”
W&D: “Please give me a cash advance in a cheque. I’ll bank it in my transaction bank account at another bank and then pay the tax bill online, using BPay.”
Bank branch teller: “There would be a $10 cost for the bank cheque.”
W&D (getting fed up): “It’s okay. Just give me an ordinary cheque, I can wait the three days for cleared funds.”
Bank branch teller: “Err, no. This is a bank. We have only bank cheques.”
W&D: “Okay, I’ll pay the $10 to get the bank cheque and the cleared funds. That will save time.”
Bank branch teller: “Err, no. The bank cheque is not cleared funds. You will have to wait three days for the cheque to clear. It’s like an ordinary cheque.’
W&D: “Hang on, you mean there is a risk of this bank going broke?”
Bank branch teller (humourlessly): “Do you want your bank cheque or not?”
W&D duly paid the $10. Took the bank cheque. Drove to his transaction bank. Deposited the cheque in his account. Waited three days. Used BPay online to pay the ATO. Waited four days for salary to come in, then paid off the credit card.
Snippets from all over
US rates up
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75-4% – the American central bank’s first increase since July 2023. (Wall Street Journal 17 September)
Wry & Dry comments: Trumpster was not happy.
Europe pursues Canada
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, invited Canada to become the first “associate member” of the European Union. (The Economist 17 September)
Wry & Dry comments: Makes the UK look silly.
Oil even higher
Oil prices in China have jumped to record highs, as refiners in the world’s biggest crude importer step up a hunt for supplies amid widening fears over the security of exports from the Middle East. (Financial Times, 17 September)
Wry & Dry comments: Oil futures in Shanghai were trading at $129 a barrel on Wednesday, above their peak of $121.80 in the first weeks of the Iran war. The price has jumped 14% since the end of last week.
Five years to replace US missiles
The Pentagon spent some $38 billion in its first few months of the war with Iran and will need at least five years to replace the missile interceptors it expended trying to defend U.S. troops and bases, according to a nonpartisan congressional office. (Wall Street Journal 16 September)
Wry & Dry comments: Trumpster doesn’t have five years.
Colombian DCM
Colombia’s right-wing president, Abelardo de la Espriella, has removed his national statistics chief just three weeks into the job after the official said he had not so far found irregularities in employment data from the previous government. (Financial Times 16 September)
Wry & Dry comments: A Trumpsterian move.
It figures
- 0.4%: China. Retail sales growth in year to end August, down from 0.6% in July, and below expectations.
- 0.0%: UK. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, despite annual inflation of 3.1% in August, well above its 2% target.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“If they do that, if I think it’s at all a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things.”
Trumpster, on what might happen if Canada becomes an ‘associate’ member of the EU.
Wry & Dry comments: Hmm, who started with a hostile act?
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Wry & Dry to pause for Melbourne public holiday and vacation
There will not be a Wry & Dry on Friday 25 September (as there is a public holiday to celebrate the eve of the AFL ‘Grand’ Final (just ‘Final’ is not enough for Victorians) nor on Friday 2 October (as Wry & Dry is on vacation in warmer climes).
Cheers!