Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
But firstly, a snapshot of this week’s Investment Matters:
FY25 in Review: Navigating Markets with Discipline, Diversification and Perspective.
Wry & Dry’s musings
Happy New Financial Year! Readers will now push the performance meter back to 0.00%. FY-25 is history, FY-26 begins. But looking at FY-25’s performance numbers, Readers should check to see if fees are deducted, if the benefit of franking credits are included, if CGT has been optimised and if unlisted investments have been fairly valued.
But the rest of the world doesn’t care about fiscal years. For retailers, it’s about EoFY sales.
For for politicians, it’s about tomorrow’s headlines. And this week, there were plenty: Albo’s deferred hot date, a little bit of Trumpster, more from the UK and the usual other suspects.
1. Albo’s deferred hot date
The content starved Australian media, and the federal opposition, continue to have conniptions about the when and where of Albo’s hot date with Trumpster.
Good grief, Readers should consider what matters for Trumpster and his planet in a galaxy far way: planning for US’ upcoming semiquincentennial (2026), the US budget, Iran, Gaza, tariffs, mass deportations, Taiwan, Ukraine, hourly careful curating of paragraphs on X, and every week-end: week-end golf.
Where on Trumpster’s list of priorities do Readers think that the bookish-looking prime minister of a faraway country in the South Pacific lies?
Correct.
Furthermore, Trumpster is probably not high on Albo’s list. Which is probably not what Ms. Wong would want.
2. Ms. Wong goes to Washington
So, let’s move on. And consider Foreign Minister Wong. Poor thing. How does she manage the plethora of acronyms and sobriquets used by the Department of Foreign Affairs? The reality is that Australia has global leadership in this area. Consider Five Eyes (formed in 1941), ANZUS (1952), ASEAN (1967), CHOGM (1971), APEC (1989), ARF (1994), G20 (1999), EAS (2005), Quad (2007), AUKUS (2021). This is unmatched by any other country; podium stuff, really.
But outside of the mandarins in Canberra, imagine explaining to a child that a Five Eyes1 gathering was not a coven. Or that AUKUS2 was not a type of platypus.
So did Foreign Minister Wong explain to her children that the Quad meeting to which she was going was not a foursome secret society? But a meeting of the foreign ministers of Australia, Japan, India and the US. Weirdly, this Quad was about ‘critical minerals’.
In fact, and entirely predicably, the foursome agreed on a pre-agreed ‘Quad critical minerals initiative’. Which begs the question, what was the point of actually meeting in Washington?
Whilst the word ‘China’ was never uttered or written, this was all about challenging Emperor Eleven’s leverage of his empire’s leadership in the processing of critical minerals, especially the not-so-rare rare earths. And how the foursome might compete. The problem is that China’s ballooning supply has smashed prices and, importantly, Australia’s processing costs are prohibitive.
Readers should expect Albo and Grim Jim to step in. They will say that they have already established more acronyms to manage the problem: CMS (Critical Minerals Strategy 2023-2030), RAP (Resourcing Australia’s Prosperity), CMPTI (Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive), and EIS (Exploration Incentive Scheme). So, with acronyms like these, all is well.
Err, no. These miss the essential point – minerals processing in Australia is expensive because of:
- high labour costs;
- high energy costs;
- stringent environmental regulations; and
- capital is scarce.
Albo cannot now do anything about a), b) or c). Readers will have to wait and see where their tax dollars will next flow to solve d). And can expect even more acronyms.
1 Five Eyes is an Anglosphere intelligence alliance of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and US.
2 Aukus is a trilateral security partnership between Australia, UK and US.
3. Planet Trumpster update
Tariffs
The Financial Times reports that US tariff revenues surged almost 400% from a year earlier to a record $24.2bn in May, the first full month in which Trumpster’s 10% global tariff was in effect.
Chart source: Financial Times
Budget
Trumpster’s Big, Beautiful tax Bill was passed by Congress. It was chock-full of pork to buy the votes needed. It is profligate, extends lavish tax cuts well into the future and boosts spending on defence and immigration enforcement. It offsets some of the cost by slashing green subsidies and cutting health care and welfare of the citizens of those United Colonies.3
America’s debt-to-GDP ratio will, in about two years exceed the 106% reached after the second world war.
Ukraine
Trumpster’s promise to end the war on Day One is now 166 days overdue. And yesterday Tsar Vlad told Trumpster that “Russia will achieve its goals, that is, the elimination of the well-known root causes that led to the current state of affairs. Russia will not back down from these goals.”
Trumpster will keep kicking the can down the road, because of the Taco4 effect. Because of Trumpster’s cowardice, 39 million Ukrainians will soon live with Tsar Vlad’s boot on their throats.
Gaza
Trumpsters is doing his best to allow Netanyahu and Hamas to turn Gaza to rubble and its occupants to waifs.
3 “…these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be, Free and Independent States…” US Declaration of Independence. Of which Readers will hear and read of much in about 12 months’ time.
4 Trump Always Chickens Out.
4. Happy first anniversary, Sir Keir
Happy first anniversary, UK Prime Minister Starmer. Your government now has the lowest approval rating (16%) since the dreaded Liz Truss occupied Number 10 (8%). Lettuce watchers are watching.
Readers will know that Borisconi’s government’s approval rating got down to 9% in May 2019. And the way UK Labor government is travelling this week, Borisconi low and then Ms. Truss’ record will be easily broken.
Y’see, Sir Keir was embarrassingly rolled this week by his backbench over his attempt to enact some modest welfare reforms. And then on Wednesday, his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, had a mini-breakdown in the Commons, during Prime Minister’s Questions (i.e. Question Time). He failed to commit to retaining her in her role.
A fiscal hawk, Ms. Reeves has been battling for weeks to keep the Government’s welfare plans together, while Labour rebels and Downing Street have torn them apart.
Sterling fell and gilts (UK government bonds) spiked in the sharpest sell-off since Ms. Truss’ ill-fated 2022 mini budget. At the end the day, governments are held hostage to government bond rates. It’s not the stock market or GDP or inflation.
Of course, there’s nothing like a disaster to boost the ratings. Twelve months after Borisconi’s 9% approval nadir, he won the Brits back; 42% of whom then approved of his government. That was all about covid – Battle of Britain spirit and all of that.
Perhaps Sir Keir might pray for a disaster…
But remember that covid receded, stripping Borisconi of his clothes. He got the DCM.
5. Tax referendum in Switzerland
Nothing is simple in Switzerland. Take government, for example. If a Swiss doesn’t like a recently passed law, he/she can gather 50,000 signatures within 100 days and demand a referendum. A referendum is duly held and, if passed the law is quashed.5 This is an ‘optional’ referendum.
But gather 100,000 signatures and a Swiss can, if the ‘initiative’ is passed, create laws. Yee Ha! The far-left Young Socialist party want a 50% inheritance tax on estates worth more than CHF50m (about AUD100,000), with the proceeds going to fight climate change.
It came to pass that the Young Socialists got its 100,000 signatures and so the good folk of Switzerland go to the polls in November.
To avoid people leaving Switzerland the day after a successful vote, the tax would be due immediately.
The bookies say the vote will be overwhelmingly rejected.
Wry & Dry brings this matter to the eyes of Readers with a view to suggesting that Albo puts to a referendum a part of its mooted extra 15% tax on superannuation account greater than $3m. And that the question be, “should any tax on unrealised capital gains be imposed?”
5The process is actually a little more complicated.
6. UK taxes at work
The UK civil service publishes critical dossiers for the benefit of they-the-British-public. Recently, there was the Strategic Defence Review (144 pages) and National Security Strategy (55 pages).
Earlier this week, a 150-page dossier waspublished on… how to use the dot in the Government’s new website logo.
Y’see, the government’s website has been rebranded. Cost: £500,000. And the full stop between the words “GOV” and “UK” has been moved upwards from its position at the bottom of the letters to halfway between them.
In a masterful exposition of civil service verbiage, the idea was explained as a “concept” that can act as “the bridge between government and the UK, by the side of users to help make information and services easier and more useful”.
But, wait! There’s more! The government’s guide adds: “Used within our wordmark and as a graphic device across all GOV.UK channels, the dot is a guiding hand for life.”
A ‘guiding hand for life’. Really?
7. Another UK record
Who would have thought? A record number of illegal immigrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of 2025. Some 19,982 managed to evade the Gallic gendarmerie and hop onto a variety of vessels to land on that blessèd plot.
This comfortably eclipses the 2024 record of 13,489.
Wry & Dry’s concern is that the people smugglers have clearly failed to provide full and accurate disclosure to their clients of the dire straits of the UK economy. Moreover, looking at the photos of the flimsy watercraft, Wry & Dry is not sure that all Health and Safety precautions have been implemented.
The alternative of staying in France must be a worse alternative.
8. Emperor Eleven’s new World Cup weapon
Emperor Eleven has clearly given up on his football (i.e. soccer) team winning a World Cup. His IT acolytes have staged a football game between robots. And true to football practice, two of the bots were stretchered-off, after clearly faking falls.
Tsinghua University defeated China Agricultural University team 5-3.
Readers should be excited.
9. Semiquincentennial – an early reflection
Today the USA is 249 years old. So, Readers should be alert to next year’s semiquincentennial celebrations. And plan appropriate mental health precautions.
The problem will be, of course, that the event will become a Trumpster celebration. If Readers thought that his inauguration was a stupendous event of self-indulgence, albeit constrained by poor weather, then imagine his beaming visage plastered all over the USA for weeks on end.
Trumpster is dreaming of The Semiquincentennial Treble: Nobel Prize (won by Teddy Roosevelt, Wilson, Carter, O’Bama), likeness carved into Mt Rushmore (Washington, Jefferson, Teddy Roosevelt, Lincoln) and visage on US bank notes (Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Grant).
No mistake, a legion of acolytes are working towards Trumpster getting The Semiquincentennial Treble, either next year or soon after. If they fail, expect to find another memorial. The United States of Trump, perhaps.
Snippets from all over
1. Coals from Warsaw
Poland generated more electricity from renewables than coal for the first time in June, marking a key moment in the country’s efforts to cut its reliance on the most polluting fossil fuel. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Poland is the most coal dependent country in in the EU; in 2024 60% of its electricity came from coal.
2. Women conscripted
Women in Denmark who have turned 18 became eligible for military conscription on Tuesday, as the Nordic country moved to expand its armed forces to prepare for a possible threat from Russia. (New York Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Will they get Lego rifles…. Sweden and Norway also conscript women.
3. No free travel
Poland will introduce border checks on arrivals from Germany and Lithuania to stop “uncontrolled flows” within the Schengen free-travel area. (Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: Germany introduced emergency controls in 2023 and has since used them to send migrants back to Poland. So went the EU.
4. Iran and The Bomb
Iran could be able to start producing enriched uranium again “in a matter of months”, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said, adding that there is no military solution to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: That would be unfortunate.
5. Non-stop to Greenland
United Airlines has started a seasonal, nonstop flight from Newark to Nuuk, the capital of the Arctic island that President Trump wants to acquire. (New York Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Greenlanders are the winners.
It figures
- 4.1%: USA. Unemployment rate, lower than expected. Interest rate cut now unlikely.
- 2.0%: Germany. Annual inflation rate to June.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“He says lots of different things to the different audiences based on what the audience wants to hear, like an aging rock star that simply goes from audience to audience, tells them what they want to hear and then moves on to the next one.”
Tim Wilson, Teal slaying Liberal politician, speaking of Albo.
Wry & Dry comments: Ageing rock star? Albo would take that as a compliment.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!