2024: The year in review and looking ahead
As we expected at the beginning of the year 2024, it has been a good year for investing in markets around the world. Global equities, especially in the US, were the standout performers, but other markets, including Gold and Technology, had strong years.
The Australian economy held up reasonably well despite the sources of growth being driven by the government rather than business, households or investment. Inflation was more contained, but inflation remained higher than some economists and Reserve Banks are comfortable with.
We are excited about how the market is set up for calendar 2025; for the first time since 2019, we can see large and straightforward sector dispersion. Some sectors are more expensive than ever and others are relatively cheap, this provides us with an opportunity to profit from the inevitable rebalance.
Winding down the year, with a bit of RBA Christmas cheer
Investment Matters has noted over the years that markets for the past two decades have spent considerable time and resources parsing in detail small changes in statements made by central banks around the globe.
Central banks understand this focus. And in turn are very careful with their language in both written statements and press conferences. The aim is to be clear, hold surprises to a minimum and use their status to influence markets expectations in a consistent fashion.
Markets appreciate understanding which economic factors are being considered more closely than others.
GLP drugs, Generative AI and Aurelia metals
With First Samuel’s 2024 CIO Events fast approaching, we were interested to see how the two topics discussed last year, GLP drugs (i.e. weight loss drugs) and Generative AI, had progressed over the past 12 months.
The use of Generative AI and tools such as ChatGPT and Bard (now Google Gemini) has continued to multiply. According to a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, since the debut of generative AI less than two years ago, a broad range of professions have begun using the tools. And 28% of workers now use the technology on the job.
Plus, this week’s Investment Matters returns to the August reporting result for Aurelia Metals, our favourite polymetallic miner in Cobar NSW. Interest in returning to Aurelia Metals was prompted by news from another company in the area and in our portfolio …
Most obviously, this led to CBA becoming the most expensive bank in the world.Although foreshadowed by others and market reaction earlier in the week, the decision to reduce rates for the first time since Covid-19 will have a significant impact on Australia in due course.
Plus, this week, Craig discusses some interesting new research on Newmont mining and results from Emeco and Catalyst Metals.
The rotation begins
Firstly, for the past nine months global flows into Australian investments from Chinese investments have contributed to the rising share prices of Australian non-mining large capitalisation companies (especially the banks). This is because global managers wanted to avoid a weakening Chinese economy.
Most obviously, this led to CBA becoming the most expensive bank in the world.Although foreshadowed by others and market reaction earlier in the week, the decision to reduce rates for the first time since Covid-19 will have a significant impact on Australia in due course.
Plus, this week, Craig discusses some interesting new research on Newmont mining and results from Emeco and Catalyst Metals.
What interest rate cuts in the US might mean for Australia
The biggest economic news of the week was not in Australia. In the spirit of the hype associated with interest rate decisions of the GFC and those surrounding Covid 19, commentary by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell was once again vital to market sentiment and the future direction of economics around the globe.
Although foreshadowed by others and market reaction earlier in the week, the decision to reduce rates for the first time since Covid-19 will have a significant impact on Australia in due course.
Plus, this week, Craig discusses some interesting new research on Newmont mining and results from Emeco and Catalyst Metals.
The end of globalisation? How your investments will be managed.
The global supply chain landscape has shifted significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic. As trade stagnates, countries are implementing protectionist policies and focusing on local production. Australia, once a beneficiary of global trade, needs to adapt by developing domestic industries, strengthening ties with allies, and investing in local supply chains.
This month, Craig Shepherd explains how trends, such as “friend-shoring,” are driven by technological advancements and a desire for greater control over supply chains.
Long term trends in global trade – Reporting season concludes – Bega, Johns Lyng and Nanosonics
One of the core thematics that the First Samuel looks to incorporate in client’s Australian shares sub-portfolios is the changing nature of global supply chains. This week Craig explores the patter of global trade and the reason we believe it may continitue to decline.
Plus, read our review the results from Bega, Johns Lyng, and Nanosonics as company profit reporting season concludes.
Profit Reporting Season Concludes – Steadfast, Johns Lyng, Healius/ACL and Bapcore
This week, the Q2 ABS National Accounts data were released on Wednesday. Although a little backward-looking, the National Accounts can provide corroborative evidence of the trends we see from the company reporting season.
In this week’s Investment Matters, we will briefly discuss interesting trends from the reporting season and outline the results for Steadfast Group (SDF), Bapcor Group (BAP), and the new portfolio positions in Healius (HLS) and Australian Clinical Labs (ACL).
Finding the crunch point – RBA raising rates? What?
In our recent communications, we have suggested that the RBA, while it can reduce interest rates and mortgage costs through 2024, could benefit significantly by following the rest of the world’s lead in reducing rates. This approach would result in a longer pause at current rate levels, particularly in the face of higher or persistent domestic inflation.
Read as our CIO explains how interest rate increases can disproportionately affect different segments of the economy.
Profit Reporting Season – Ventia, Johns Lyng, Earlypay and Nanosonics
Read key company results as the reporting season winds down. On balance, market strategists have noted that earnings revisions have been neutral across the board, which is a better than historic outcomes of net negative earnings revisions by optimistic investment banking equity analysts.
Profit Reporting Season – Week 2
This week’s Investment Matters will concentrate key company results as the reporting season ramps up.
Profit Reporting Season Update
This week’s Investment Matters will concentrate key company results as the reporting season ramps up.
Early profit reporting season and news update
In last week’s Investment Matters we concentrated on the confession season, the period in which companies make early announcements to the market surrounding material changes to upcoming earnings.
This week’s Investment Matters will also concentrate on news flow and early reporting season results.
Confessions of a corporate earnings season
Most ASX-listed companies in Australia have a June fiscal/financial year-end. Accordingly, those with June and December balance days will tend to present their (half-year/annual) financial results to the market in each of the months of February and August.
Judo Capital – back to the future of banking
As a raft of stocks in the portfolio have been taken over or have successfully met our internal price targets, we’ve been on the hunt for new names to replace.
Perpetual – finding a way to unlock value
In the past year, we have often commented that we’ll exhibit due patience as part of our investment approach. This is required as we often seek to invest in businesses that are significantly unloved and misunderstood and where assets may, therefore be mispriced.
Premier Investments – A deep dive into a new opportunity
In recent weeks, clients will have seen the addition of Premier Investments to their Australian equity sub-portfolios. Famously partly owned and operated (whether formally or informally) by Solomon Lew, Premier Investments is amongst the most successful discretionary retailers in Australian history.
Steadfast in its approach
© 2024 First Samuel Limited The Markets This week: ASX v Wall Street FYTD: ASX v Wall Street Steadfast Group Limited is an Australian insurance broking network that provides insurance broking services to businesses and individuals across Australia and New Zealand. The company was founded in 1991 and has become one of Australia’s largest insurance […]
Growing – in two very different ways
In recent weeks, we heard the mildly alarming statistics that the ASX had fallen to a low in October 2023 of 6703.2, lower than the levels seen in the broad market index at the close of October in 2007 (6770).
Falling share prices – An opportunity (not) to be wasted
This week we highlight a new addition to the portfolio.
Inghams: laying golden eggs
Inghams is the dominant supplier of chicken products in Australia. It is also amongst the largest positions in client portfolios. In the past week, it delivered an update on progress within the business across the first half of the fiscal year.
Lynas gets a rare (earth) licence reprieve in Malaysia
This week, we discuss developments in the critical minerals sector and take a look at Woolworths Q1 trading update and what it may reflect with respect to the Australian consumer.
When should we be worried about worrying? Consumer confidence.
This week we look at Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment and hope to relate it to longer-term historical trends and current portfolio construction.
RBA Speaks – more nuance, slightly less ideology?
On Wednesday, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent gave a speech to a Bloomberg gathering with a title that would surely only excite economists: “Channels of Transmission.”
Misstep or side-step?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is currently an impasse. Will it continue to hike interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve? Or will it choose to take a divergent path? And what might the consequences (of either approach) be?