Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
But firstly, a snapshot of this week’s Investment Matters:
- Is the ASX shrinking?
Wry & Dry’s musings
Trumpster actually flew one of the B-2 bombers that dropped a package on Ali Khamenei’s front lawn. Well, that was one of his dreams this week. The other became reality, that he persuaded NATO countries to spend billions on new military kit, most of which will be purchased from… US companies.
But Albo sticks to his planned military spend of 2.3% of GDP.
Meanwhile, in behaviour reminiscent of the wisdom of Napoleon invading Russia just before winter, the Liberal opposition in Victoria is wisely doing its best to lose next year’s election.
1. The 12-Day War – The Issues
Trumpster wanted to show that he had the hairiest chest in the locker room. Question: he has set back Iran’s nuclear programme by:
- 20 years;
- 2 years;
- 2 months; or
- 2 weeks?
Close, but no cigar. The correct answer is none of the above. Until the Netflix series, the world will never know.
Netanyahu showed he knows how to get inside Trumpster’s capacious brain. He got a weekend rent of seven B-2 bombers, 14 GBU-57 bunker buster bombs and 118 fighter jets. Readers will remember that Ukraine (remember Ukraine) had to sign away 50% of its mineral wealth to get future US military aid. Netanyahu paid nix for his.
Ali Khamenei says that his leadership meant that Iran survived a nasty attack from the Great Satan. He also said that he was willing to be martyred for the cause. Thousands of Iranians went onto to social media urging him to do so.
Bed-wetters and hand-wringers came out in force. This is Armageddon. The Apocalyptic end of the world as we know it. How dare anyone do such nasty things to the very nice Islamic Revolutionary Guard?
Lawyers, both barrack-room and qualified, wrote letters to the editors. The bombing was illegal, of course. Take it to the Supreme Court or the ICJ. But nothing was said about Hamas, Hezbollah, or Houthis. Or Syria. Not to mention domestic theocratic torture.
The media salivated at the opportunity to fill spaces between ads with maps, diagrams, charts, and Q&As. But all the maps didn’t help Middle America, who still think that Iran is near Taiwan.
Albo’s incisive contribution was to show year-7 English alliterative ability and call on whomever were involved, whomever it were, and they know who they were, to show “de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy”. Had he not already been dead, Henry Kissinger would have died laughing at such a puerile comment from a nation’s leader.
2. 5% income tax
In a clear example to Grim Jim of how to manage tax reform, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said of Oman has decreed that some of its citizens must pay income tax for the first time. Effective 2028.
And the rate? A shocking 5% on income earned over about $109,000 p.a. Oman will become the first Gulf state to introduce personal income tax.
Oman needs the dosh. It has the Gulf’s lowest GDP per capita, a mere $42,000 (PPP). It relies on exports of crude oil and minerals, which provide 85% of the government’s revenues.
One of its governorates, Musandam, forms the peninsula that is the southern neck of the Strait of Hormuz, arguably the second most vital waterway in the world. Perhaps the Sultan could augment the sultanate’s income by setting up a seaway toll for ships transiting the Strait.
3. EU – UK = M2
Macron, president of France, and Merz, chancellor of Germany, have put pen to newspaper in an extraordinary article in the venerable Financial Times. Their words, conveniently in English and not in French or German, had nothing to do with fiscal matters.
It’s all about European unity in the face of Russian aggression, pledges of support for Ukraine, increases in military kit to 5% of GDP, and increases in industrial capacity.
The extraordinariness of the article is the clarity of what it didn’t say. Or, more particular who wasn’t a signatory, i.e. the Prime Minister of the UK.
The UK was the earliest and loudest supporter of Ukraine, it is the second largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine (after the US), and Starmer was the first to pledge to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP.
Starmer will not feel slighted. But those to the right of the soup spoon in the UK will make hay.
4. Much ado about 5%
There has been much ado about 5%; NATO’s new (Wednesday) target for each country’s GDP being spent on military kit. Spain has already given NATO and the Trumpster the bird, saying that 5% in English really means 3% in Spanish.
But it’s all about distance. There is merit in seeing how far each country’s capital is from Tsar Vlad’s pillow. The below is an extract from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.
Of course, the metric (i.e. x% of GDP) is a nonsense. Australia spends 2.3% of its GDP on defence. How much of this is either wasted or sensibly spent is another matter. Australia will spend $3bn as a deposit for submarines that might not even be delivered.
5. Invitation not accepted
As Wry & Dry writes, there is a wedding in Venice. A healthily wealthy man will wed a long-term carrier of RDS.1 The latter’s condition is exemplified by her taking the sensible precaution of packing six wedding dresses.
Readers know that this is not a celebration of love. It’s a networking event.
Which is why Wry & Dry turned down his invitation. He scanned the list of celebrity guests and wannabe celebrity guests. It seems the usual rent-a-celebrity crowd will be there: Opera, Leonardo, a Kardashian, William Gates, Ivanka, etc.
But, where are the Real People? There were two names missing from the guest list: The Ruddster and Princess Princess.2
1 Relevance Deprivation Syndrome.
2 Meghan Markle.
6. The Balkanisation of Victorian Liberals
It’s a rather unique strategy. In the face of the worst state government in Australia since the extraordinarily incompetent Cain/Kirner years, the opposition Liberal Party has adopted a unique election strategy.
Take the tension out of an election campaign by trying not to win. No worry, no stress. Just spend time and energy on winning internal battles.
Readers know that the Labor Party is ruthless in its quest for power and is ruthless in dealing with internal dissent. It is outstanding at papering over its factional divisions. Its rule is first show competence in running its own business before tackling running a state or country.
On the other hand… the Liberal Party in Victoria is populated by brainless wannabe power-brokers, who are good haters. The recent Deeming/Pesutto fiasco is an exemplar. The far-right, abetted by external players, will just not move on. And yesterday lawyered up to maintain their rage.
Their incompetence was shown by a Victorian Supreme Court judge stating that their case to block a loan to Pesutto was “half-backed’ and “fundamentally” flawed. Especially as the loan had already been made and paid to Deeming. Really.
And these monkeys expect Victorians to vote for them. But their interest is not victory over the Labor government. It will be to see Pesutto and his supporters in a mass grave.
7. Didn’t get the memo
The pilot didn’t get the memo about a war.
8. Six-month window
An astute journalist at the Melbourne Age newspaper has done his homework. And calculated that there is a six-month window for the Allan Victorian Labor government to act. After which it commits the state to penury.
Essentially, some $3bn has already been sunk into the $35bn Suburban Rail Loop project. In six months the first of the tunnel boring machines begins its work – it is then that the fiscal obligations really build up.
From then on, the project is seriously locked in. Let Wry & Dry give Readers the whisper about what next happens.
Firstly, Premier Allan is not going to change her mind. She was the responsible minister under Chairman Dan, and it would be folly to go to next year’s election having tossed in the towel on such a signature policy.
Secondly, the Victorian Liberals will happily go to next year’s election knowing that it cannot then sensibly cancel the tunnelling contracts. The costs would be absurdly high. So, horror, the Libs will have to come up with a policy. Or maybe two.
Wry & Dry suggests that the Liberals make losing the election a certainty by announcing that the government’s prevailing WFH policy will be abolished. The new regime will be five days a week in the office for hundreds of thousands of public servants.
Top Gun Pete’s no WFH policy worked a treat.
Snippets from all over
1. Communist Lunatic
President Donald Trump has branded Zohran Mamdani “a 100% Communist Lunatic” the day after the New York mayoral hopeful won a surprise victory in the city’s Democratic primary. (Wall Street Journal)
Wry & Dry comments: … which means he will probably be elected in November.
2. Tesla’s French problem
French anti-fraud authorities said they have ordered US electric car giant Tesla’s local subsidiary to stop “deceptive commercial practices” after an investigation found several violations harmful to consumers and contrary to law. (Le Monde)
Wry & Dry comments: It’s all about Tesla’s claims of fully autonomous driving.
3. No, No, Nobel?
Donald Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize nomination has been withdrawn by a senior Ukraine politician who accused the US president of appeasing Vladimir Putin. (UK Telegraph)
Wry & Dry comments: Trumpster is furious.
4. US rates on hold until September
Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has signalled interest rate cuts are off the table until at least September, as he pushed back against Donald Trump’s call for an immediate reduction. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Trumpster is furious.
5. Nuclear intelligence
Pete Hegseth, America’s defence secretary, accused the media of giving too much credence to a leaked intelligence report that suggested America’s strikes on Iran only set back its nuclear programme by a few months. (Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: ‘Obliterate’ clearly means whatever Trumpster wants it to mean.
It figures
- 2.1%: Australia. Inflation in year to end May. Below expectations. Rate cut?
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“Being very busy at work is not a valid reason [for Russian women not to have children], but a lame excuse. You can engage in procreation during breaks.”
Yevgeny Shestopalov, a regional health minister, urging Russians to have sex during the working day.
Wry & Dry comments: Is there a workplace health and safety issue here? Tsar Vlad, it seems, will stop at nothing to reverse Russia’s falling population. Rules introduced in at least ten regions since March mean teenage mothers who are still at school will be given one-off payments of 100,000 roubles ($1,500) for their first birth. There is no minimum age requirement of the mother to receive the payments. The age of consent in Russia is 16.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!