Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig focuses on “War, energy and second-round effects.” This is compelling reading. Moreover, he explains why we hold the investments we do.
Craig also takes a deep dive into the profit results of:
- Block (XYZ)
- Inghams
- Paragon Care
To read Investment Matters, you can still click at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
Middle Eastern events are moving faster than a speeding bullet. Which obscures longer-term considerations. The world is now monitoring everything. Meanwhile Uncle Albo and Grim Jim batten down the hatches. Trumpster’s latest cringe-moment. And Australia’s fertility rate.
1. Trumpster trips up over geography
The emergence of a hitherto little-known geographical expression, the ‘Straits of Hormuz’, critical to the world’s economy, has led interested people to reach for their atlases. And their Valium.
As with anything Trumpster does, if asked about Iran and “are we there yet?” he still doesn’t know where there is. That is, his objective.
Well, he sort of does, but it moves from week to week. The first was actually a trio: no nukes, no missiles, no funds for unfriendly people. Well, he’s not yet there for them. According to Netanyahu, the no Iranian nukes and no Iranian missiles have almost been achieved. The third will take longer, because that means Israel has to invade another country (Lebanon).
The second there objective was Iranian regime change. Australia will get its first nuclear-power sub before this is achieved.
This week’s there objective involves geography i.e. those Straits of Hormuz. And its closure by Iran. This is, well, inconvenient. Some 25% of the world’s seaborne oil and 20% of global LNG flow through it, using a three-kilometre-wide outbound lane. Didn’t someone tell Trumpster?
It’s not as though there is a toll gate controlled by folk in Tehran. The folk in Tehran can make their own arrangements, because they can land a missile or drone on any vessel that passes. And also at any other vessel that wants to stop Iran from stopping the shipping.
Global industry and then global consumers are already feeling the outworking of Economics 101: cut supply of a good with inelastic demand1 by 20% and the price will rise. There will be economic pain for some time.
So, the world is focusing on economic pain. But someone should ask will it be worth it all? Wry & Dry is going to stick out his optimistic neck and say that it will be. As Wry & Dry wrote two weeks ago, Readers should consider counterfactuals of stopping Hitler in the mid-1930s, or North Korea in the mid-1990s.
Do Readers want to give a nuke to a crazy theocracy with a proven record of malevolence? Really?
Haphazard paths to resolution will emerge. And these are more likely, and more boring, than the wildly destructive scenarios about which Readers are reading.
1 Inelastic demand is when changes in the price of a product or service result in negligible changes in quantity demanded.
2. Uncle Albo chickens out
It’s sort of weird. Having initially supported Trumpster in the Middle East, when the going got tough Uncle Albo hid behind a curtain.
Well, his conviction has gone AWOL. He said today that “We want to see the Strait of Hormuz opened.”
But then when asked to join a statement by the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan and Canada offering support for freedom of navigation in the Strait, he declined.
Included in the lengthy statement was: “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.”
Is Uncle Albo reverting to type?
3. Word of the week
In every media release, every politicians’ utterance, every economic think tank, in fact, everywhere, it is impossible to avoid the word ‘monitoring’.
Everyone is monitoring events in the Middle East. Which means what, exactly? Actually, it’s just looking at a Bloomberg screen or a BBC news update or, for monitoring of conspiratorial causes, social media. But doesn’t mean that anyone is doing anything. Just, well, monitoring.
In fact, now that WFH is now de rigueur, people can monitor the world’s events from the comfort of home. And report to their managers, their suppliers, their clients, their whomever that they are actively monitoring events. Bonuses will be paid for monitoring events.
Of course, will any purposeful activity arise from all this monitoring? Yeah, nuh.
4. Cringe moment of the… year
Trumpster has surpassed himself. Again. Is there no end to the size of this man’s deficit in self-awareness?
He was meeting with Japan’s PM in the Oval Office. He was asked by a reporter why Japan wasn’t made aware of US plans to strike Iran.
“You don’t want to signal too much,” Trumpsters said, as Sanae Takaichi sat beside him.
“We didn’t tell anyone about it because we wanted surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan?” he added.
He dug a deeper hole with, “Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor?”
The room’s silence was deafening.
5. Grim Jim and fertility
At last, Grim Jim has the cojones to note a few fiscal problems that he is having. Of course, none of the problems are of his making.
His confession made it clear, although not actually stated, that the government’s failure to prepare in the good times has been exposed when conditions deteriorate. As they have.
He did go as far as to state that he will firstly, improve Australia’s productivity, but action will not make a difference for another five years. That will make nine years he’s had. But recall, the last Liberal leader to speak cogently about productivity was John Hewson – and look what happened to him.
Secondly, undertake budget repair. Which begs the question: who caused it to need repairing?
Thirdly, deliver tax reform. In this, his upcoming fifth budget. Trouble is that Uncle Albo likes to please everybody and not upset anybody. ‘Reform’ combined with ‘budget repair’ will mean ‘losers’. Yeah, nuh.
What wasn’t expected from Grim Jim was him stating that Australian fertility rates will continue to decline over the next five years.
Australia’s fertility rate is out of Grim Jim’s direct control. Mind you, in view of Uncle Albo’s government wanting to fiscally intrude into the deeper recesses of Australia’s households, Wry & Dry wouldn’t be surprised if Albo and Grim made a joint bid to fiscally enhance Australia’s fertility rate.
Expect this to be a Trojan Horse for rapid advancement of higher levels of government funding for childcare.
6. Free trade
There is some good news on the horizon. Australia is about to finalise a free-trade deal with the EU. Both sides are shouting all about the winners: Australian exporters of almost everything; and EU exporters of almost everything.
There are no losers. Of course.
7. Captain obvious
Transport Minister Catherine King made her contribution to Uncle Albo’s war cabinet pressers. On Wednesday, she said that Australia would not be sending any warships to the Middle East. She said that Australia hadn’t been asked to (well, not politely and not directly).
What she didn’t say was that we don’t have any spare ships. And if we did, they wouldn’t worth a pile of beans. The ANZAC frigates are almost 30 years old and have limited missile capability and limited ranges of those missiles. Australia’s three Hobart class destroyers are too new and valuable to risk sending to a war zone.
Note that the Opposition is remaining silent on this. It is even more culpable than Uncle Albo for Australia’s shocking defence position. Given the long lead time required to assess, order and build defence kit, the rot started under John Howard. This century the Coalition has been in government for 18 years, and Labor just seven.
The good news is that the first three replacements frigates, the Japanese Mogami frigates, are expected in 2030. As it is likely that the Straits of Hormuz will still be closed, Australia could send a couple of them, to assuage the anger of whomever succeeds Trumpster.
8. UK PM: the end is near, surely
Readers will recall a few weeks ago that UK PM Starmer’s Labour Party was relegated to third in a by-election in a previously very safe seat in Manchester. Sort of seismic, but that was the Greens targeting pro-Muslim supporters in a decidedly left-wing electorate.
Readers will also know that local elections in the UK are run on party lines. And England goes to the polls on 7 May to elect more than 7,000 good burghers in 136 local authorities. This will be a litmus test for Starmer, more than the recent ‘Bass by-election’ in Manchester.
The winds of change are blowing already. Y’see last week, in a local by-election in Essex, the heart of Middle England, a Reform (far right wing) candidate topped the poll with 31% of the vote, with an independent getting 29% and Labour just 20%. The winning campaign was all about asylum seekers. Over 100,000 are housed at the UK taxpayers’ expense.
If Reform candidates win lots of seats on the basis of immigration, independents on economic reasons, and left wing parties for anti-Trump/anti-Semitic reasons, then Starmer’s deputy, Angela Raynor is bound to cause Starmer’s DCM.
9. Ranking happiness and airports – for those who care
On Wednesday, the World Happiness Report 2026 was published. And happy days for Nordic countries, which filled five of the top six places, with Finland heading the table.
Australia came in #15 of 50, behind New Ziland (#11), but happily ahead of US (#23), UK (#29) and Singapore (#36).
Also on Wednesday, the airports of the world bated their breath for the announcement of the best. They needn’t have bothered. Again, Singapore Changi won the top gig. Which maybe doesn’t make up for the country’s relatively low level of happiness.
Melbourne’s airport fell to 21st, down from 16th, but happily for those Melbournians who worry about the city up the road, Sydney came in at 52nd.
And Readers will be delighted that Houston won the World’s Best Airport Art for the fourth successive year. Wry & Dry understands that all art there must be in oils.
10. Least worst
A palace coup against current Victorian premier Jacinta Allen has fizzled like sparkler on a child’s melting birthday cake.
It seems that it has dawned on some Labor MPs in marginal seats that there is an election in November. And that they might be down at Centrelink before Christmas. Self-interest, the horse that former PM Gough Whitlam said should always be backed in the race of life, has driven the coup possibility.
But, as one Labor insider said, Ms Allen is the least-worst option. Now, there’s a recommendation.
Snippets from all over
Macron to mediate
France’s Emmanuel Macron announced on Thursday a last-ditch effort to salvage a warplane program with Germany, saying Chancellor Friedrich Merz had agreed to a “mission” to mediate between the firms involved. (Le Monde 20 March)
Wry & Dry comments: The programme, a flagship joint effort to build a next-generation combat aircraft between France, Germany and Spain, has faltered as disagreements persist between France’s Dassault Aviation and Airbus.
Missing persons
Officials have lost track of more than 7,000 Afghans resettled in Britain by the Government, the National Audit Office (NAO) has said. (UK Telegraph 20 March)
Wry & Dry comments: the arrivals result from a 2021 programme that gives Afghans who served with British security forces homes in the UK.
Rollers to stay with ICE
Rolls-Royce has become the latest carmaker to scrap plans to ditch petrol vehicles, with the British carmaker saying many customers prefer the feel of a V12 engine over electric motors. (UK Telegraph 19 March)
Wry & Dry comments: Customers typically pay more than £300,000 (A$600,000+) for a Roller. Rolls Royce is owned by BMW.
WFH drives UK car park operator to the wall
One of the UK’s biggest car park operators has become the latest victim of pandemic-era changes to shopping and working habits, falling into administration and putting nearly 700 jobs at risk. (Financial Times 17 March)
Wry & Dry comments: Another one bites the dust.
BBC wants Trumpster’s lawsuit given DCM
The BBC has asked a US judge to throw out Donald Trump’s $10bn lawsuit against the corporation over a misleadingly edited documentary, arguing that the Florida court lacks jurisdiction over the case and warning about the “chilling” effect on reporting. (The Times 17 March)
Wry & Dry comments: The BBC stated that the documentary didn’t air and was not streamed in the US. Therefore, a Florida court does not have jurisdiction. How brave will a Floridian judge be?
It figures
- 4.1%: Australia, RBA targetcash rate, up from 3.85%. Government spending mostly blamed, a little bit on Middle East
- 3.75%: UK, Bank of England cash rate, unchanged
- 3.75%: USA, Federal reserve target cash rate, unchanged
- 4.3%: Australia, unemployment rate, up from 4.1%. But more jobs were added than expected.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
Wry & Dry comments: Apologies to Michael Caine.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!