Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
But firstly, a snapshot of this week’s Investment Matters
- It’s been a month since ‘Liberation Day’. What has happened?
- Bank shares – still not enticing us
To read Investment Matters, you can still just click on the link at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Wry & Dry’s rant
After a two-week Easter/ ANZAC break, Wry & Dry returns with a bumper issue. Well, a poke-me-in-the-eye-with-a-burnt-stick issue.
Firstly, the usual Australian election hallmarks of lies, exaggerations, and bluster were not necessary over the past five weeks. As no-one was paying attention. But the lies, exaggerations, and bluster continued anyway, at warp speed. Will enough voters vote tomorrow to make the election valid?1
Secondly, Trumpster continued his Quixotic quest to trash the global economy, trash the US economy, and sever close ties with Canada, Europe and Greenland. But is it possible that there is more to the US-Ukraine ‘minerals deal’ than meets Wry & Dry’s rheumy eye?
But, what the heck, it’s his 100th day anniversary. See the Appendix for Wry & Dry’s anniversary tribute.
1 Unhappily, that’s not possible.
1. Never was a story of more woe…
Each of Albo and Top Gun Pete gave election campaigning exemplars of monumental incompetence, visionlessness and cowardice.
Top Gun Pete
Top Gun Pete has run the most incompetent, ham-fisted opposition campaign since McMahon in 1972. Having done well to lead Albo 52/48, he spectacularly imploded with off-the-cuff idiocy. For a person who needed to rebuild women’s confidence, his abolish-WFH policy was an electorally suicidal thought bubble. His utterance of a preference for Kirribilli (the Sydney residence of the PM) shouted arrogance, if not poor taste.
Top Gun Pete dealt himself a winning hand. And played it badly. Very badly.
Albo
Albo is arguably the worst prime minister since McMahon. The fact that he is in the gig by only two seats after the unmitigated disaster of Miracle Morrison tells a story of what we-the-voters expected. The fiscal extravagance is shocking enough, but add his bumbling response to any event not in his diary and Readers would rightly worry what will happen when a Chinese battleship docks unannounced in Sydney Cove.
That Albo might lose his majority (and Australia’s AAA rating) or even just hang on to it tells a story of how his government is perceived. Truly three wasted years of government.
The only saving grace of the past five weeks was the otherwise unwelcome but impossible to ignore Trumpster distraction.
2. Wry & Dry sticks his neck out: election prediction
Nett party changes: Greens -2 seats, Teals -2, Coalition +6, Labour -2, other independents unchanged.
Nett nett: Labor 76, Others 75 (Coalition 58, Teal 5, Greens 2, Independents 10).
In that outcome, the big question is: who will become Speaker? If a Labor appointee, Albo loses his majority. So Wry & Dry muses that deals (broadly defined, if Readers follow Wry & Dry) will be done and one of the Independents will become Speaker. Meaning Labor retains majority of one seat. And Albo has a majority government.
As Shakespeare might have said, “For never was a story of more woe/ than this of Top Gun Pete and PM Albo.”1
1 Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet; the final lines are: “For never was a story of more woe/ Than this of Juliet and her Romeo.”
3. No Marshall Plan, but…
Hello! It’s only taken Trumpster 100 days to realise that Tsar Vlad was playing him like a trout. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along…” mused Trumpster last weekend.
Even Wry & Dry’s dog2 knows that Tsar Vlad has little incentive to stop the war. He has more young soldiers (Russian and North Korean, err, volunteers) to throw into the mincer than Zelensky. His military hardware is increasing, Zelensky’s is decreasing. He can toss billions of roubles at the war, the West is running out of money.
Tsar Vlad has time and patience. Trumpster has neither.
Hold the phone! The signing of a US-Ukraine ‘minerals deal’ this week seems to provide comfort for Ukraine. It’s no Marshall Plan – the aggressor has not been defeated.3 But Readers should look behind the headlines:
- The deal does not preclude EU membership.
- It is more a shale gas deal than hard minerals – Ukraine might provide up to 50% of the lost Russian gas exports to Europe.
- It makes it clear that Tsar Vlad was the aggressor and he is blamed.
- Trumpster now has a fiscal interest in Ukraine’s survival.
- Ukraine will be able to purchase US weapons on a quasi “lend-lease” basis. With the value of military support being a sort of loan to joint infrastructure fund.
- The Russian war machine is exhausted. This might be like imperial Germany in 1917.
- The Russian economy is beginning to falter. The price of Urals crude has crashed to $56 and LNG has fallen 30% in past 2 months.
There is much to evolve. The world knows that Trumpster can be capricious. But it might be that Tsar Vlad will spend his summer at his retreat near Valdai, thinking of a face-saving Plan B.
Trumpster has had a road-to-Damascus turning.
2 Max is named for Max Gawn, the greatest ruckman to ever play Australian football.
3 The Marshall Plan was an American initiative enacted in 1948 to provide foreign aid to Western Europe after the Second World War. About $133bn in today’s value was transferred.
4. Election highlight #1 – Postergate
Postergate hit the leafy and mostly prosperous electorate of Kooyong in Victoria. Firstly, there was the gotcha video of the husband of the Teal MP seeking re-election. He was videoed stealing the campaign poster of his wife’s competitor.
Naughty boy.
Not to be outdone, a supporter of the Trumpster ripped down a poster of the same Teal MP seeking re-election. He was also caught on camera. Another Teal seeking re-election called the video, “an apparent endorsement of violence against women.”
Wry & Dry is not sure of the equivalence of violence against women with a man pulling down an election poster. Her comment was as fatuous as, but not as comical as, the behaviour of both men. Nor the media’s interest in them.
Election highlight #2 was… Err, there were no other highlights.
5. Pattern doesn’t mean causation – EPL
Last weekend’s victory by Liverpool to win the English Premier League football (i.e. soccer) title was mathematically significant. Very significant.
Astute Readers who follow both the EPL and mathematics would have noticed the significance.
Allow Wry & Dry to explain. Since the EPL was formed in 1992 there have been, obviously, 33 league winners, with the ranking of successes (lowest to highest) being…
Those astute Readers will recognise in the right-hand column the Fibonacci sequence, in which each number (after the first two) is the sum of the previous two in the sequence.
The real-life examples of the Fibonacci sequence are most obviously found, for example, in the spiral shapes of nautilus shells, the vortices of hurricanes and the curved arms of galaxies.
Doubtless some otherwise sane people would have foretold that Liverpool had to win the EPL, because the Fibonacci sequence predicted it. And not Blackburn Rovers, which is no longer in the EPL. Nor Leicester City, the season of which is a shocker – it will be relegated.
Err, nuh. The Fibonacci sequence popping up doesn’t signify that a pattern means causation. A coincidence is sometimes just a coincidence.
6. Pattern means causation – GDP growth
On the other hand, the pattern of significant downgrading by the IMF of expected 2025 GDP growth in major economies has a common cause.
Trumpster. The Executive Summary in the IMF’s April economic outlook contained just one chart:
Readers can look to the far right-hand side of the chart. The last three data points: blue, red and green; arose from the Executive Order pen of Trumpster. The effective tariff on US imports is now higher than the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 (that led to the Great Depression).
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook warned that the instability hammering international trade would inevitably lead to lower global growth. And it came up with the numbers.
World growth for 2025 was forecast to be 2.8%, down from 3.3% in 2024.
Of major economies, all had their 2025 GDP growth forecasts slashed, except for Spain. In Australia’s case, it was 1.6% for 2025, down from its January forecast of 2.1%.
There goes Albo’s and TGP’s budget forecasts. And it’s only May.
7. What is ‘national interest’
The English town of Scunthorpe was recently best known for sporting types: former England cricketer Ian (now Lord) Botham played soccer for Scunthorpe United, and real soccer players Kevin Keegan and Ray Clemence learned their craft there before going on to play for Liverpool.
The town is the home of British Steel, the last plant in the UK capable of producing virgin steel (i.e. not from recycled steel). Trouble is, British Steel is not British, it’s Chinese. It’s owned by Jingye Group.
It remains unclear why Jingye made the purchase – the mill was and is a basket case; now losing GBP20m per month. But now, it seems the plan is clear. Jonathan Reynolds, the UK Business Secretary, has accused Beijing of trying to shut down the British steel industry by switching off Scunthorpe’s furnaces. Thereby making the UK reliant on Chinese stocks.
Apparently, the cunning plan was that Jingye would divert crucial raw materials so they would not arrive in time to keep the furnaces burning. Without these materials, such as coking coal and iron ore, the blast furnaces would cool, and then become unusable.
Shutting British Steel would mean that the UK would be the only G20 country without the ability to make virgin steel.
Enter the British government: in a rare Saturday sitting of the Commons, the government passed legislation to take control, but not ownership, of British Steel.
What now? Readers can imagine furious negotiations going on behind tightly closed doors.
The case is not only the price that the UK government will have to pay to buy back the loss-making plant. But also one of where private interest meets the national interest. And that cost on top of the dosh required to keep it running. And on top of the cost of modernising it.
Which brings Wry & Dry to two questions about ‘national interest’:
- Should the Australian (and South Australian) government have tipped $2.4bn into the decaying Whyalla steelworks (it might be better to invest in a modern plant)?
- Should the Australian government nationalise the Port of Darwin, now owned by a Chinese company?
Perhaps nah, yeah.
8. Emperor Eleven plants a flag
Trumpster’s hitherto vain attempts to annex Canada, Greenland and Gaza have come to nowt. This is because he doesn’t know how to properly do it. He should follow Emperor Eleven’s example.
Last week, a trio of flunkies from China’s Coast Guard planted the Chinese flag on a 200m2 sandbank in the south of the South China Sea. And claimed the sandbank as a part of China. Sandy Cay is over 1,000 kilometres from the nearest undisputed Chinese territory.
Readers will know that Emperor Eleven claims almost all of the South China Sea as part of his Empire. This in spite of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruling against China in 2009. The Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei all claim part of the strategically located islands and reefs in it.
Emperor Eleven has built military outposts and airfields on some of the reefs.
So, all the Trumpster has to do to expand the size of the Yoo Ess Ay is to get a patriot to plant the stars and stripes on each of Canada, Greenland and Gaza. And to claim the territory as belonging to They The People of Those United States.
9. Vanity in space
It was all over in 10 minutes. The Earth’s second wealthiest person decided to spend some of his hard-earned to shoot six women from it.
As a marketing exercise for Jeff Bezos’ space tourism company, the sub-orbital space flight was a photo opp not to be missed. And it wasn’t. The world watched. Or so the world was led to believe.
An appropriately ethnically diverse collective of celebrity-women was bedecked in designer blue space suits reminiscent of the Thunderbirds. They were guided from the ground by a panel of rocket scientists, led by a duo of Kardashians and an Oprah, who had clearly been practising her reaction faces all week.
The shape of the rocket ship would have reminded Readers of, well, page 328 of Gray’s Anatomy.4
The excitement was on the re-entry, so to speak. Ms. Sánchez (Bezos’ fiancée) was the was first to exit the capsule. And looked, well, relieved. Her comment reflected so much about her: “We’re getting married. If I didn’t come back, that would be a bummer for me.”
And that comment summed up the whole farce.
Actually, it wasn’t the only comment. Another of the crew, a Ms Katy Perry, is shouting out that she is now an astronaut. Err, hold the phone. To be an astronaut one must5:
- Possess a master’s degree in any of engineering, biological science, physical science, computer science or mathematics, from an accredited institution;
- Have at least two years of related professional experience obtained after degree completion or at least 1,000 hours pilot-in-command time on jet aircraft; and
- Be able to pass the NASA long-duration flight astronaut physical.
Ms. Perry fails the grade. But that will not stop her from circulating her amended resumé.
4 Gray’s Anatomy is a reference book of human anatomy written by Henry Gray, illustrated by Henry Vandyke Carter and first published in London in 1858. It has had multiple revised editions, and the current edition, the 42nd (October 2020), remains a standard reference, often considered “the doctors’ bible.”
5 Source: NASA
10. Electric ute
Readers will know that Muskovite added a ‘pick-up’ (i.e. ute) to his range of Tesla EVs. The wedge-shaped and troubled6 Cybertruck is seen as the future of American automotive iconography.
Enter the Slate Truck. This EV ute is a quarter of the cost of a Cybertruck, and is somewhat basic. Well, very basic. Steel wheels, crank windows, no infotainment screen are the evidence.
But wait! There’s more! There is a flat-pack accessory SUV kit that converts the two-seat ute into a five-seater, with a roll cage, rear seat and options for roof or no roof, no doors, etc. This is innovation.
A US$50 deposit will get US Readers into the production queue. Go to: SLATE Auto | The Customizable EV That Works for You.
The backer for the Slate Truck is Jeff Bezos. Wry & Dry wonders which celebrity women he will put into the ute for its launch in 2026.
6 More than 46,000 have been recalled because of the potential for an exterior panel to fall off. Inconvenient.
Snippets from all over
1. Tsar Vlad may be beginning to worry
The US and Ukraine signed an “economic partnership” deal on Wednesday that will give Washington access to the country’s critical minerals and natural resources, ending weeks of fraught negotiations. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: There is much more to this than meets the eye.
2. Trumpster’s key adviser gets DCM
President Trump is replacing national security adviser Mike Waltz roughly a month after he put a journalist on a group text chat in which advisers discussed a sensitive military operation, making him the first top official to lose his job in Trump’s second term. (Wall Street Journal)
Wry & Dry comments: He certainly messed up. But his departures will mean the doves are in ascendency in Trumpster’s.
3. Net zero ‘doomed to fail’
Former UK Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair has warned there needs to be a radical reset of “irrational” net-zero policies because they are “doomed to fail.” (The Times)
Wry & Dry comments: The UK Labour Party said that Sir Tony’s comments were ‘unhelpful’.
4. China halts new orders of Boeing planes
Chinese officials told domestic airlines not to place new orders for Boeing jets and are requiring carriers to seek approval before taking delivery of already-ordered aircraft. (Wall Street Journal)
Wry & Dry comments: Emperor Eleven is gently tightening the thumb screws on Trumpster.
5. Canadians turn to anti-Trump leader.
Mark Carney, a technocrat who ran the Bank of Canada during the financial crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit, won Canada’s national election on Monday on the strength of his assertion that he is the right leader to take on Trump. (Wall Street Journal)
Wry & Dry comments: Carney is a technocrat in charge of a centre-left party. What might possibly go wrong?
It figures
- -0.3%: USA. GDP growth in March quarter. But it’s not a bad as it looks. Massive pre-tariff imports in March (which detract from GDP) will reverse in April and May. But US exports might also fall.
- 2.4%: Australia. Inflation in year to end March. But underlying inflation, the RBA’s key metric, was 2.9%. the lowest since 2021. A whiff of lower rates?
- 4.1%: Australia. Unemployment rate in March. Up from 4.0% in February. But maybe not cool enough to cut rates.
- 5.4%: China. GDP growth in year to end March. But boosted by massive pre-tariff exports to US.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“We have listened to many complaints against Francis’s papacy in these days.”
An unnamed cardinal, quoted in America Magazine, a Jesuit publication.
Wry & Dry comments: Good grief. The body of the late Pontiff is in the ground. And yet his successors wish to plunge knives into it.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!
Anthony
Read this week’s edition of Investment Matters.
APPENDIX
Trumpster 100th Day Tribute – A Miscellany
- Trumpster and rare earth minerals
It is a truth widely acknowledged that Trumpster has the patience of a two-year old waiting to open a Christmas present. But in his Battle-Of-The-Hairiest-Chest with Emperor Eleven, he is up against an opponent who not only can play the long game, but also has, in one instance, the readies to play the short game.
Consider rare earth minerals. There are 17 of these and are integral in the production of planes, trains and automobiles. And drones, wind turbines and more. An F-35 fighter plane contains some 400 kilos of rare earths, and a submarine will have more than four tonnes of them.
The trouble for Trumpsters is that China is the OPEC of rare earth minerals.
The US relies on China for 72% of the 17 metals. And in the subcategory of heavy rare earths, China is the sole world producer of six.
China has already announced that it will limit the export of those six heavy-rare-earth minerals, as well as rare-earth magnets, of which it controls 90% of the world supply.
When on rare Earth will Trumpster blink?
2. Trumpster’s epic 100 days
The data is for post Second World War presidents. QED.7
Trumpster will sell the streaming rights to Netflix.
7 That is. quod erat demonstrandum: that which was to be demonstrated.
3. Trumpster’s side hustle
Readers will know that Trumpster has presented a list of demands to Harvard University, refusal to which will cause a loss of $2.3bn in multi-year grants and a $20m contract. Wry & Dry has obtained the actual list of demands, including the fine print. That list starts with:
- Reduce “governance bloat, duplication, or decentralization.”
- “Address bias… and end ideological capture”…that fuels antisemitism
- Make Donald Trump Vice Chancellor of Harvard and award him an Honourary Doctorate of Economics
- Provide admissions data, including ‘information on rejected and admitted applicants, sorted by race, national origin, grade-point average and performance on standardized tests’
- Shutdown any DEI programme
Harvard politely told Trumpster to stick it up his jumper. Trumpster rudely told Harvard there goes your tax-exempt status.
4. Where did the money go?
Trumpster raised more than $239mn for his second inauguration.
Ahead of $1m each from Apple, Uber, Amazon, Google, Meta, etc was the ninth highest donor. At $1.1m, was Australian cardboard king Anthony Pratt.
Of course, these folk just wanted to see Trumpster and Mrs Trumpsters have a good time. Nothing to do with currying favour. Of course.
It is just not feasible that the inauguration cost $239m. Where the leftover cash is spent is yet to be disclosed, if ever?
5. Trumpster’s coin
The value of Trumpster’s memecoin (‘$TRUMP’) soared more than 50% just before Easter after an announcement that he would have dinner with the top 220 holders next month. The group would be invited to a private dinner at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington on 22 May to hear Trump talk about “the future of crypto.”
The 25 people who own the most of Trumpster’s coin will also be invited to a pre-dinner reception, and a VIP tour of the White House the following day.
The move helped drive its price as high as $14.70, giving insiders nearly $900,000 in trading fees in two days, according to Chainalysis, a blockchain data company. Since January, trading activity has generated about $325m in trading fees. These fees are generated through the token’s built-in mechanism that routes a percentage of each trade to wallets controlled by the coin’s creators, of which a Trumpster affiliated entity is entitled to 7% of net revenue.
Nice work. If you can get it.
6. Trumpster call
“My gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”
November 2018, on why his gut is better than the economics of the Fed. And it’s a big gut.
