Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig:
- highlights the challenge the war in Iran presents to market sentiment, global policymakers, everyday businesses, and consumers
- presents in-depth discussions of last month’s reporting season on another three of the larger portfolio positions:
- Santos
- Woolworths
- Life360
To read Investment Matters, you can still click at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
Wry & Dry takes a break from the rinse, repeat events in the Middle East, oil and Trumpster. And wields his quiver at International Women’s Day, cattle moving around the Gnats’ top paddock, Uncle Albo gets Realpolitik and the Victorian government hermetically seals details of the covid-19 quarantine disaster. And the bookies are offering $1.20 on UK PM Starmer getting the DCM before Christmas.
1. International Women’s Day I: unbelievable
International Women’s Day, it’s difficult to believe, has arrived in the Hermit Kingdom. Which prompted the country’s benevolent and clearly feminist leader, Kim Jong-un, to use the occasion to show his deep and abiding concern for North Korean women. So, last week he gave an impassioned speech about them, including:
“Though physically weak, they are obviously strong-willed, their plain faces assuming courage and the wrinkles on them denoting their strenuous exertion and thus arousing much greater respect.”
But, North Korea being North Korea, no-one is going to argue with him. Not even his sister. Or daughter.
2. Gnats move the cattle around the paddocks
Head Gnat Littleproud gave himself the DCM on Tuesday. And then gave a valedictory presser of Trumpsteronian exaggeration. He compared himself to former Menzies era Head Gnat, the formidable ‘Black Jack’ McEwan.1 Good grief.
As former wannabe US vice-president Lloyd Bentsen might have said, “I served with Jack McEwan, I knew Jack McEwan. Jack McEwan was a friend of mine. Mr Littleproud, you are no Jack McEwan.”2 Littleproud’s legacy will be one of destructive erraticism, of a capricious leader who led from behind and saw the world as he wanted it to be, not what it was.
Matt Canavan, Littleproud’s successor as Head Gnat, is more like Jack McEwan: consistent, strident, and will lead from the front. Readers should expect ‘isms’: social conservatism, agrarian socialism (i.e. privatise the profits, socialise the losses), nationalism and shameless-boost-for-Australian-manufacturing-ism.
And Canavan will turn the Gnats into a narrow Three Policy Party: industry protection (rent seekers: yee ha!), coal-fired power (there goes the coalition) and income splitting (what part of the budget will be cut to pay for it?).3
And then focus on making life merry hell for I’m-Not-Boring-Taylor.
1 McEwan was a strong politician in the later Menzies years, serving as Head Gnat for 13 years and 36 as an MP. To him goes the plaudits for normalising and expanding Australia’s trade with Japan. But he engineered high tariff trade and industry policies that insulated Australian manufacturing and farming sectors for decades.
2 Bentsen’s put down of the hapless Dan Quayle in the 1988 vice-presidential debate was arguably the greatest of all time. Readers may wish to watch: https://youtu.be/Kz9StNrkrIw. Really keen Readers may wish to see how Ronald Reagan used Bentsen’s barb against Bill Clinton when supporting George H. W. Bush: https://youtu.be/NC9IbrLLHAw.
3 Whereby husband and wife (after all, this is the Gnats) can split their income in a way that lowers the average tax paid by each. Sort of having a family trust without having a trust.
3. Uncle Albo gets Realpolitik
One of the failings of being a politician is trying to play the hand that you’d like to get, not the one actually given to you. So, it is now observable that Realpolitik4 is breaking out in Canberra. Well, at least in the PM’s office and concerning foreign policy.
Uncle Albo’s epiphany might have been on the road to Bondi, when the reality of anti-Semitism finally caused the scales to fall from his eyes. And now, his handling of the Iran war has shown a maturity Wry & Dry thought not possible. His immediate backing of Trumpster stands in contrast with Starmer (a human rights lawyer, not a PM’s bootlaces) and Macron (who will always search for a fence on which to sit).
The language of Uncle Albo has been more measured than Trumpster, with greater clarity. For example, his disclosure of three RAN sailors being on board the submarine that sent an Iranian warship to Davy Jones’ locker served two purposes. Firstly: there’s nothing to see, here; thereby shutting down the facile pronouncements of the Greens. Secondly: the reality of AUKUS; get used to it.
4 ‘Realpolitik’ is conducting political policies and actions based given factors, it is a pragmatic approach. Realpolitik is often contrasted with Idealpolitik, which is guided by moral principles or ideals, and Gefühlspolitik, which is driven by and appeals to emotion or popular sentiment.
4. Covid-19 hotel quarantine silence
Oh, the benefit having taxpayers’ funds to defend and then settle a court case that might prove embarrassing.
Readers will recall former Victorian Premier Dan Andrew’s disastrous handling of covid-19. Especially the extraordinary negligence in the handling of the so-called ‘hotel quarantine programme’. A class action by some 1,000 businesses followed, contending that the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic in late 2020 was the result of the transmission of the virus from returned travellers to workers at the hotels, who subsequently transmitted the disease to members of the community.
The problem for Premier Jacinta Allen is that there is an upcoming state election. And a high-profile court case would mean that both she and Dan Andrews would probably be called to give evidence.
Having already spent over $40m defending the case and trying to make it go away, Ms. Allen has decided that discretion is the better part of valour. And will toss $50m of taxpayers’ hard-earned at the plaintiffs to actually make it go away.
5. UK government to direct pension investments
Another example of a government attempting to get pension (superannuation) funds to invest in pet projects has hit Wry & Dry’s desk.
In the UK, the Pensions Scheme Bill (working its way through the House of Lords) would allow ministers to require pension schemes to invest a minimum percentage of saver’s funds into UK infrastructure investments.
The government denies that the provision will mean what it says. Of course it does.
But wait for the idea to again rear its very ugly head in Australia. Gotta fund those infrastructure projects.
6. Ranking women in Australia’s workplaces: a disappointing stat
Inevitably, the Economist magazine has ranked how women in the 29 members of the OECD fare in the workplace.
As Readers might expect, the top three positions are held by those Nordic countries: Sweden, Finland and Norway.5 Australia has leapt to #8, up from #14 in 2016. But the big movers are Netherlands, up 10 places to #14; and Ireland, up 8 places to #15.
Big fallers were Hungary, down 14 places to #23, US down 5 to #25 and Germany also down 5, to #24. Switzerland, Japan, South Korea and Turkey tail the field.
There were 10 criteria. Australian women ranked well in labour force participation (6th), women on boards (4th), women in managerial positions (3rd) and women in parliament (1st). And shockingly in paid leave for mothers (second last), paid leave for fathers (second last) and net-child care costs (7th last).
5 It may be an unrelated statistic…the average tax rate at the average wage in those countries is respectively 43%, 43% and 36%. In Australia it is 27%.
7. UK PM: is it the end of the penny section?
Readers will remember that UK PM Starmer gave the DCM to Lord Mandelson, his ambassador to Washington, because of his (the ambassador’s) lying about his history of, err, dealings with the diabolical Jeffrey Epstein.
This was always weird for someone who was once the UK’s chief prosecutor, i.e. claiming that if someone he was questioning wasn’t telling him the truth, then there was nothing he could do about it. Which is the reason for a process called due diligence.
If only sending Mendelson to Washington had been against international law, he’d never have done it.
Three nails have now emerged to go into the rapidly being sealed coffin that will contain Starmer’s political future.
Firstly, documents now show that he was repeatedly warned of grave reputational risks if he appointed Mandelson.
Secondly, Starmer’s government gave Mandelson a DCM handshake of £75,000. So, if a person lies on his/her job application and gets the DCM for so doing, a parting gift is required? Really.
Thirdly, Starmer delegated the vetting of Mandelson to two personal friends of…Mandelson. So much for “full due process”.
The bookies (William Hill) have Starmer at $1.20 get the DCM by Christmas this year. Two of the three favoured successors are left-wingers. Angela Rayner (soft-left, $3.60); Wes Streeting (centrist left, $4.50) and Ed Millibrand (soft-left, $8.00).
8. International Women’s Day: silence
Wry & Dry waited in vain to see if that hitherto champion of women’s rights, Grace Tame, would take the opportunity presented by International Women’s Day. And make a well-publicised speech in support of Iranian women, especially the Iranian women footballers (i.e. soccer players) who reminded Australians about real oppression.
Nuh. Just the sound of crickets.
9. International Politicians’ Pensioners’ Day
Just as the Democratic Party in the US was seeking to re-energise itself for the anti-Trumpster mid-term elections in November, up crops an outlier.
Jim Clyburn, an 85-year-old Democrat Congressman from South Carolina, yesterday announced that he would seek re-election in November. Good grief!
But wait! There’s more! Hal Rogers, an 88-year-old Republican member from Kentucky, and Maxine Waters, the 85-year-old Democrat from California have already said they are running for re-election. Trumpster will be 80 in November.
Zimmer frames at 20 paces.
10. UAP presents a wish list
Readers will recall that the United Australia Party, Clive Palmer’s attempt to change the world, has just one member in federal parliament, Victorian Senator Ralph Babet. Senator Ralph was elected with the UAP obtaining just 4% of the primary vote in 2022 and winning the final Senate spot on the 360th distribution of preferences.
Senator Ralph might have been very comfortable in a blend of the defunct Democratic Labor Party and UK Reform Party, if you follow. And seems very, very comfortable picking the pocket of Clive Palmer.
And of the Australian taxpayer. But he doesn’t care. He’s got a job until 2028; being a Senator is a nice little earner.
Which leads Wry & Dry to ask why his benefactor has taken double page spreads in the major newspapers, explaining in modest detail the policies of the UAP. All with a photo of the smiling Senator and his munificent benefactor.
Maybe the aim is to get them out of the voters’ eyes well before the next election. Y’see, some are right out of the world of crazies. Consider:
- No university fees (to guard against foreign government’s interference)
- Fast trains 120 kilometres from capital cities (to open up affordable land)
- The government to lend for housing at the bond rate plus 2% for up to 90% of purchase price
- Introduce a 25% export licence fee on iron ore to pay down the national debt
Sigh.
Snippets from all over
Churchill off, animals and birds on
Sir Winston Churchill is one of the historical figures set to be replaced on banknotes by animals or birds, the Bank of England has announced. (The Times 12 March)
Wry & Dry comments: ambulances were called to the gentlemen’s clubs in St James, as members choked on their pre-lunch Pimm’s9 and lemonade. And any notaphilist will tells Readers that (a) Churchill has been on UK banknotes for only 10 years; and (b) banks notes account for less than 20% of UK retail transactions, compared to over 50% 12 years ago.
9 Pimm’s is an English brand of liquor-based fruit cup drinks. Pimm’s No 1, the most famous product, is gin based. Other ‘numbers’ have different bases: No 2 is whisky, No. 3 brandy, No. 4 dark rum, No. 5 rye whisky, No. 6 vodka and No. 7 tequila. Only No 1 and No. 3 are still produced.
Tsar Vlad backs Hungary’s Orban
The Kremlin has launched a disinformation campaign aimed at helping Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán get re-elected next month, according to people familiar with the matter. (Financial Times 12 March)
Wry & Dry comments: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is a right-wing populist and Tsar Vlad apologist. Hungary is part of the EU.
Oil reserves drained
The US will release 172mn barrels of oil from its strategic petroleum reserve, as part of a push by members of the International Energy Agency to quell any further rises in oil prices. US energy secretary Chris Wright said the release would take about 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates. (Financial Times 12 March)
Wry & Dry comments: Somewhere in this, just somewhere, there’s got to be money in this for a member of the Trump family.
Perp’s visa reinstated after bureaucratic delay
An Egyptian who stabbed his sister’s partner almost to death has had the cancellation of his visa quashed by the Federal Court after it found that the Albanese government took too long to act on the case. (The Australia 10 March)
Wry & Dry comments: “Justice delayed is justice denied.”
Nepal’s rapper
Balendra Shah, a rapper-turned-politician, is set to become the prime minister of Nepal, after his party won more than half of the parliamentary seats in Thursday’s election. (The Economist 10 March)
Wry & Dry comments: Thereby adding to the Pantheon of country leaders whose previous career was in a form of the arts; for example, Zelensky (comedian); Trumpster (reality television host); Trudeau (snowboard instructor); Starmer (lawyer).
It figures
- 91.6: Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, up from 90.5 in February.
- 1.3%: Japan, GDP in 2025, well above expectations of 0.2% growth.
- 1.3%: China, inflation in the year to end February, well above expectations of 0.8%.
And to trouble your troubled mind…
“It’s more fun to sink ’em,” Trumpster, on being asked why the US Navy had sunk an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, claiming 100 lives, rather than capturing it.
Wry & Dry comments: Compare to “Don’t cheer, boys. The poor devils are dying.” Said by Captain John Woodward Philip, commanding the USS Texas, at the Battle of Santiago de Cuba in 1898. The Spanish cruiser Vizcaya had burst into flames, the ammunition store ignited, and desperate, burning men hurled themselves into the sea.
Not only do words matter, but so, too, the thought behind the words.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!