Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters – a bumper edition
This week Craig reviews the final week of reporting season, with snapshots on:
Woolworths, Cleanaway, Worley, Nanosonics, Integral Diagnostics, EarlyPay, Paragon, Emeco, Healius, QBE, Aurelia, and Inghams
He also takes deep dives into:
- Emeco
- QBE
- Healius
- Cleanaway
To read Investment Matters, you can still click at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
The week was flooded with Trumpster’s doings. The usual blend of tabloid theatre, abuse of ‘losers’ and the re-emergence of TACO. And Uncle Albo showed his versatility by showing interest in matters monarchial. Ms. Hanson took the right-wing limelight from both the Gnat and Libs as the media lapped up her attempts at bon mots.
1. State of Union Delusion
It wasn’t what was on the wrapper. But no-one expected it would be. Trumpster’s State of the Union address1 was a two-hour blend of showmanship of a mid-20th century travelling three ring circus; the Oscars; and a shareholder’s address by a CEO of a latter-day-Poseidon-lookalike AI start-up.2
The next morning, all the guests3 could remember was only the trapeze and the awards, and with a sense that somehow their pockets had been or will be picked.
Trumpster spent 104 minutes saying nothing that was worthy of a State of the Union address. The pejoratives about the tariff-busting Supreme Court justices were expected. The only uplift was the introductions of the US men’s ice hockey team and aged heroic servicemen.
No-one expected cogent comments on what he might do about Americans who were ‘doing it tough’ (he is only interested in winners), or why he might attack Iran (oil deal?), or his vision of ending the now four-year war in Ukraine (aside from keeping Tsar Vlad happy), or the challenge posed by China (don’t upset Emperor Eleven) or the perils or opportunities of AI (err, please explain).
Those expectations were met.
1 Article II, Section 3, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution states that the president “shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient”.
2 Poseidon NL was an exploration company, the share price of which rose from $0.80 in September 1969 to $278 five months later. At that price, its market capitalisation was thrice that of Australia’s largest listed bank: Bank of New South Wales (now Westpac). The boom was on the back of a nickel discovery in a period of rising global nickel prices. By the time company started producing nickel, the price of nickel had collapsed, the ore grade was a lower than reported and extraction costs higher than forecast. The only winners were those on the inside, as it were. Keen Readers should do themselves a favour, and buy the brilliant book by Trevor Sykes: “The Money Miners: The Great Australian Mining Boom.”
3 Every member of Congress can bring one guest; the president and House speaker may each invite up to 24 guests. Seating for Congress on the main floor is by a first-in, first-served basis with no reservations. The Cabinet, Supreme Court justices, members of the Diplomatic Corps, and military leaders (the Joint Chiefs of Staff and commandant of the Coast Guard) have reserved seating.
2. Feeding the Chooks a royal ruse
Feeding the Chooks4 is a vital module in Prime Ministership 101. Especially when there are troublesome political matters lurking. And so, Uncle Albo had to reach back to yesteryear’s education to announce that Australia would support the removal of Mr. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor (see more below) from the royal line of succession.
Uncle Albo’s hitherto unknown evangelical enthusiasm for matters monarchical was such that he rang four radio stations with the news. A Road to Canberra epiphany, so to speak. Which led to the clear suspicion that he was trying to distract attention away from more pressing matters.
More pressing, as the letter from Downing Street will take months, if not years to hit Uncle Albo’s letter box. Not least of which is the need for AMW to be charged with, if not found guilty of, an offence before the executioner’s axe is raised. The last time the 16 realms (and the six Australian states) were asked to agree on something5 it took four years.
Uncle Albo’s royal ruse was one of two this week. The other was his pet project. Hornby-Triang fans received news of further funding for further feasibility studies on the feasibility of a high-speed rail link between two cities in New South Wales. The mooted cost of $93 billion apparently didn’t factor in the 15% premium to be paid to the CFMEU.
The government of New South Wales has said its coffers are empty, so the feds will have to pay 100% of cost. Which means the other states will be paying to carry prolls to Newcastle.
The aim of Uncle Albo’s ruses is to distract attention from Treasurer Grim Jim increasing bad habit. The latter is risibly raising every possible capital gains tax discount reform flag up the flagpole, to see whom salutes.6
Uncle Albo must be losing patience.
4 An Australian slang term that refers to politicians giving media briefings on a subject and with the spin of the politician’s choosing. The term came into the lexicon by former Queensland Premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen.
5 In 2013 the U.K.’s Succession to the Crown Act came into force, making significant changes to how monarchs ascend the throne.
6 Grim Jim wants to raise more dosh, and has targeted the 50% discount on tax on capital gains realised after more than 12 months.
3. On the other side of the rabbit-proof fence
Meanwhile, attention on the Liberals has quietened, for the wrong reasons. Why focus on the boring Angus Taylor when One Policy One Nation’s Pauline Hanson is eager to give the Chooks a daily news hour’s fill in just ten minutes. Plus vision.
Ms Hanson’s histrionics will be front-of-media-minds in the upcoming Farrer by-election (the seat to be vacated by former Liberal Head Girl Ley). This will provide an opportunity for her to propound her ‘net-zero’ migration policy.
There’s a lot Wry & Dry could do with any net-zero comment by Ms Hanson. Suffice to say that he feels that Readers have seen Peak Hanson. There are many voters who consider that she has her one policy direction right, but the magnitude wrong, as it were.
There will be a drift from One Policy One Nation back to the broader policy bases of the Gnats (and agrarian socialism) and Liberals (just dig up Robert Menzies and John Howard).
But expect the unexpected. The Gnats have Senator Canavan, a Mallee bull in a country china shop. And Taylor will have to actively manage a trio of submerged logs active self-promoters: Jane Hume, Andrew Hastie and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. Each of these has form of diverting attention to themselves when their leader will want discipline. Expect ill-discipline.
Uncle Albo only has to manage Grim Jim.
4. Who loves ya, Baby
Of course, Tsar Vlad would not be well liked by Australians. For that matter, neither is Emperor Eleven. Perhaps it is only a little surprising that Trumpster’s net likeability lies somewhere between the other two despots. Well, maybe not.
But it is pleasing that leaders of Ukraine and Japan, both of whom are bullied by their respective larger neighbour, strike a favourable response. NB: the net scores for Zelensky, Takaichi and Starmer seem low. This is because the scores for all leaders have been adjusted by ‘voter awareness’. Everybody knows Tsar Vlad and Trumpster.
5. Meanwhile, a ‘Bass by-election’ for Starmer?
UK PM’s Labour party received a belting in yesterday’s by-election in Gorton and Denton, a once safe Labour seat in the heart of Manchester – held since 1935. In 2024, the Labour candidate received 51% of the vote. Yesterday that was reduced to 25%.
The photogenic Green candidate won with just 41%, a stunning result. The far, far right-wing Reform failed to capture the protest vote, and disappointed with 29%. The Conservatives’ vote was just meagre 2%. Lucky to get a touch, really.
Not that the Mancunians really cared – the voter turnout was 48%.
Y’see, PM Starmer is not quite as unpopular as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, but it’s close. The policy turnarounds, the arrest of former UK ambassador to the US Peter Mandelson, rising inflation, the disastrous immigration policy, etc, are now too much for the average Brit. Hence the rise of the far-far-right Reform Party. And the forming of a far-far-left party headed by Jezza Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour party.
What now for Starmer? Labour finished third on the ballot in once locked-in seat. The sound of the knives being sharpened in Westminster could be heard in Manchester. Never send to know for whom the bell tolls…
6. Betting against DOGE
Many thought that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency was an indulgent narcissistic exercise by a Trumpster pet that would fail. But few put up the cash to back their view.
Alan Cole did. He bet his life savings, some $340,000, that DOGE would not shrink US government spending.
He collected a profit of $128,000. Interested Readers can read all about it here: The Tax Nerd Who Bet His Life Savings Against DOGE – WSJ
7. US tariff-affected companies lawyer up
Trumpster was grumpy that the US Supreme Court’s ruling that his tariff regime was illegal. His grumpiness can be measured by his careful use of pejoratives. He labelled the justices ‘fools and lapdogs’ and said they were “swayed by foreign interests.”
Words, shmords. What matters are…
Firstly, the companies that paid the tariffs to the US government want their money back. Over 900 companies have already lawyered up, wanting their share of over $160bn. The only winners here will be the lawyers. To get the dosh back will take until the twelfth of never, and that’s a long time.
Secondly, the ‘fools and lapdogs’ have deprived Trumpster of his preferred weapon of economic pressure against Emperor Eleven. And this just before he lands in Beijing for a summit.
The effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods will tumble from 32% to 23%. This drop reflects Trumpster’s new, post Supreme Court ruling, of a 15% global tariff rate.
Emperor Eleven 1, Trumpster 0.
8. The executioner’s axe is poised
The golden egg that was laid for Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, i.e. being the second son of a wealthy sovereign, has turned into an Easter egg, the Easter Sunday hunt for which in his new and isolated windswept garden will probably be the only thing he wins in 2026. As he will be hunting alone.
Wry & Dry mooted some weeks ago that perhaps AMW should be on the-ultimate-self-DCM watch. Perhaps not, why waste the time and money? Not to wish that he would do such a thing. Y’see, it’s reasonable to think that AMW is in a state of delusional denial. And that he wouldn’t have the courage to undertake the ultimate-self-DCM.
The other great golden egg beneficiary is Sarah Ferguson, holder of Legend Status in the Grifter Hall of Fame and the venal and vapid ex-spouse of AMW.
She is now on a shopping trip to the UAE. Shopping for a husband.
9. Cars with three pedals getting DCM
Weep. With Melbourne’s F1 motor vehicle race upcoming, it’s time to consider the demise of that great vehicular institution: the stick-shift car.
Notwithstanding that cars with three pedals are more difficult to steal than those with two (because younger perps don’t know how to drive them), three-pedalled cars are a dying breed.
In 2015, some 200,000 manual cars were sold in Australia. Ten years later, a mere 21,000 were sold. That’s a massive 20% p.a. decline; a decline even greater than Jacinta Allen’s popularity.
Australia annual car sales by type. Chart source: The Australian 17 February 2026.
10. On whom can Ukraine rely?
In early February, Trumpster told Ukraine to hold elections and a referendum on a peace deal by May or lose America’s proposed security guarantees. Yes, really.
Readers will recall that after Trumpster took office, America’s military aid to Ukraine fell by… 99%.
Chart source: The Economist
Let Wry & Dry assure Readers that it’s just not possible that this is all about the Nobel Peace Prize. Y’see, the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in mid-October. But nominations closed on 31 January. So, Trumpster won’t get the gong for any peace efforts in Ukraine after that date.
Hang on. Maybe he doesn’t know that it’s too late!
But wait! There’s more. On Tuesday, Trumpster, via a démarche,7 has formally warned Ukraine not to strike targets within Russia that could hit US economic interests.
But wait! There’s even more. Earlier on Tuesday, Trumpster abstained from voting in a UN resolution (a) supporting lasting peace in Ukraine and (b) demanding Russia withdraw all its troops from Ukrainian territory. The vote was 107 for with 12 voting against, with 51 abstentions.
The US was the only modern Western democracy not to support Ukraine.
The nays were essentially Russian client states. The fence-sitters were (a) Muslim-majority countries; (b) those with Russian economic interests e.g. China, India and South Africa; and (c) the usual nutters e.g. Hungary, Zimbabwe and Serbia.
If Readers are really, really bored, below is how each country voted.
7 A diplomatic message intended to register disapproval.
Snippets from all over
Another Kiwi flies to Australia
Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinta Ardern and her family are relocating to Australia, becoming the most high-profile addition to a growing number of Kiwis moving across the Tasman. (Bloomberg 27 February)
Wry & Dry comments: She’s already been down to Centrelink.
Iran plans to bomb US? Really?
Iran is producing missiles designed to strike America, Marco Rubio has warned. (UK Telegraph 27 February)
Wry & Dry comments: Rubio is US Secretary of State, i.e. Foreign Minister. A ruse? Next, he will say that the US supports the removal of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the UK’s royal line of succession.
Emperor Eleven
China has restricted exports of rare earth magnets and other critical materials to dozens of leading Japanese companies in an escalation of a dispute with Tokyo. (Financial Times 24 February)
Wry & Dry comments: The measures were meant to “curb Japan’s ‘remilitarisation’ and nuclear ambitions.” Hmm. It’s a bit rich for Emperor Eleven to accuse Trumpster of using economic coercion (e.g. tariffs) for political ends.
UK’s misconduct net widens
[Former UK ambassador to the US, Lord] Peter Mandelson was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office after he was accused of sharing confidential government documents with Jeffrey Epstein, a dead sex offender. (Wall Street Journal, 24 February)
Wry & Dry comments: His Lordship is of a different cut to AMW. He will not hide away.
Merz wants no ‘phone-in’ sick leave for Germans
Friedrich Merz wants to ban Germans from calling in sick to work in a bid to tackle soaring rates of absenteeism. [Instead he wants them] to visit a doctor’s office before being declared unfit to work. (UK Telegraph, 23 February)
Wry & Dry comments: Germans average 15 days per worker per annum of sick leave.
It figures
- 3.8%: Australia, inflation in year to end January. Grim Jim not grinning.
- -34 points: Australia, confidence in Australia’s economic direction. A 13-year low.
- -0.4%: Australia, real wage growth in 2025. Grim Jim not grinning.
- 2.3%: Canada, inflation in year to January. Headline inflation has been inside BoC’s 1% to 3% target for the last two years.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“…spare me the condescension, old man.”
Grace Tame, after Uncle Albo said that she was “difficult.”
Wry & Dry comments: Uncle Albo bowed to woke pressure and this morning apologised. The-non-woke world would agree with enthusiasm that Ms. Tame is difficult. And Ms. Tame would be rejoicing in the publicity.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!