Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig reports on Reporting Season, with briefs on Macquarie, SGH, James Hardie, Origin and HomeCo Daily. He also provides deeper dives on:
- SGH Limited
- Macquarie Bank (with additional notes on CBA)
- HomeCo Daily Needs
Craig also writes on his trip to Western Australia, where he toured the mine and met with CEO of Orabanda Mining.
To read Investment Matters, you can still click at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Wry & Dry’s ponderings…
Tazball got Tazza Taylor the numbers over Head Girl Ley. Who promptly gave herself the DCM from politics. Will Pauline Hanson, come on down to her seat of Farrer? Meanwhile, Victorian Premier Allan has redefined ‘infrastructure’ to encompass a myriad sins committed by the CFMEU and paid for by Victorian taxpayers. But will the media show some ticker.
Trumpster’s Armada dropped anchor within bombing distance of Tehran; the naval lads are fishing whilst Iran’s negotiator bores Trumpster’s into somnolence. Sir Keir Starmer’s removalist quote from 10 Downing Street has come in.
1. Tazball.
In a political equivalent of Bazball1, the federal Liberal Party tried an innovative approach to reverse its self-inflicted death spiral. It is called Tazball. It’s essence is for Angus Tazza Taylor to portray loyalty to the leader, undermine the leader, background friendly journalists and offer the 30 pieces of silver. All the while ignoring the amazing opportunity to knife the enemy, choosing instead to knife a colleague.
As with Bazball, Tazball excites the crowds (i.e. media and Uncle Albo et al). And like Bazball, Tazball’s implementation was clumsy and the participants incompetent.
Unlike Bazball, though, Tazball succeeded: the small number of Liberals left in federal parliament voted for blueblood Tazza to get the top gig, with nominal female Lady Macbeth Jane Hume as deputy.
But Tazball didn’t start this week. There is a scene in Far From the Madding Crowd2 where a rogue sheep dog drives a flock of sheep over a cliff. Clearly inspired by the thought, Gnat’s Leader Littleproud, like a sheep dog, drove a flock of Liberal sheep over a cliff.
In time, the Liberal sheep will come to realise that:
- Their polling shambles had only a little to do Head Girl Ley, instead driven by the Gnat’s panic about One Nation;
- The Gnat’s, experienced farmers as they are, will now subliminally control the flock of Liberal sheep; and
- Angus Taylor couldn’t run a bath, much less a political party. As shadow Treasurer, he didn’t lay a glove on Uncle Albo or Grim Jim, who have got onto the beers already.
Time will reveal how the 30 pieces of silver were divvied up. And whether One Nation’s first test (in the by-election) as second most popular party will reveal any policies other than only Anglo-Celts can immigrate to Australia.
1 Bazball was a test cricket approach the English team used this summer against Australia. It failed disastrously.
2 A book of rural Victorian England by Thomas Hardy. The original movie starred Alan Bates as the sheep owner, also with Julie Christie, Terence Stamp and Peter Finch. There was a 2015 version.
2. Redefining ‘infrastructure’.
Premier Allan has given a whole new meaning to ‘infrastructure’. She was the previous infrastructure minister, under the tutorage of then premier Dan Andrews. Infrastructure has certainly flourished under her definition and on her watch.
According to evidence before the Queensland Commission of Inquiry into the CFMEU released on Tuesday it is clear that in Victoria ‘infrastructure’ includes not only roads, rail and bridges. It includes drug trafficking, strippers, systematic corruption and bribery, sexual exploitation of women, organised crime, fire-bombings, intimidation, thuggery, jobs for mates and ghost shifts.
The cost to Victorian taxpayers of Premier Allans’ broad definition of infrastructure is estimated at $15bn. Not to mention the outworkings of the booming bikie gangs drug industry and construction site lawlessness.
Wry & Dry posits that the question now is not what Premier Allan will now do. She will do nowt.
It is whether the Victorian media will show the spine they lacked when Andrews was premier. Then the media quivered in Andrews’ presence.
Will the media stand up to Premier Allan and her acolytes? So far, Premier Allan has refused to front the media since the explosive revelations implicated her negligence.
3. Meanwhile, Trumpster’s Armada lies idling
Trumpster wants Iran to do as he wants. So, he sent an ‘Armada’ to within a bomb’s throw of Tehran.
Iran, of course, would prefer ‘talks’ to bombs. Last week’s initial talks between Iran and the US in Oman got underway and were described by Trumpster as “very good.” As the talks were nothing more than a formal diplomatic greeting, it’s pleasing that the shaking of hands didn’t immediately descend to “not good.”
Because that is where they will end up. Readers should expect delay after delay. Y’see, the American negotiating team consists of Steve Witkoff, a former property developer, who also is concurrently negotiating about peace in Ukraine.
Jared Kushner, Trumpster’s son-in-law, is also part of the team, clearly there to negotiate whatever there is to negotiate that which lines the rapidly filling family pockets.2
The Iranian team is led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who will run rings around this artless due. Araghchi is a tough and veteran negotiator – the talks that led to the 2015 agreement between Iran and P5 + 1 (i.e. the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) were effectively started in 2004. Araghchi was Iran’s chief negotiator for the last three years of the talks.
By the way, Araghchi completed a PhD in political thought from the University of Kent in 1996. He is fluent in English.
Witkoff will have as much success with Iran as he has had in Ukraine.
2 The following is a precis of parts of an article in the Wall Street Journal of 6 February. Steve Witkoff’s son is 32 year-old Zach. Zach runs World Liberty Financial. WLF is a crypro-currency issuer and trader. A Trump business entity owns 60% of WLF, and is entitled to 75% of all revenue from coin sales. Zach is assisted in its management by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jnr.
One of WLF’s few publicly known investors is Chinese-born billionaire Justin Sun; shortly after Trumpster took office in 2025, Sun invested $30 million into WLF and an SEC investigation into him was subsequently dropped. In 2025, Trumpster pardoned Changpeng Zhao, who had been convicted of anti-money-laundering compliance failures, after his company Binance had helped finance WLF.
In 2025, a firm associated with the Abu Dhabi government purchased $2 billion worth of USD1 stablecoins from WLF and secretly bought a 49% stake in the company for half a billion dollars; shortly hereafter, the Trumpster administration approved a plan to give the UAE firm hundreds of thousands of advanced, scarce computer chips, despite national security concerns.
4. Trouble at 10 Downing Street
UK’s PM Sir Keir Starmer has probably already received the quote to remove him, his wife and their goods and chattels from 10 Downing Street. Just in case.
Just in case what? The ‘what’ is that 20% of Labour’s parliamentary party need to nominate an alternative leader (and, obviously, prime minister) from the sitting members. Any other wannabe PM must also have at least 20% of the sitting members in support.
The 20%+ wannabes would be on a ballot with Sir Keir. The ballot is among the about 250,000 Labour Party members and affiliated organisations (e.g. unions).
And who is the most likely 20%+ wannabe? Angela Rayner, the Sir Keir’s former deputy, is making all the right noises, i.e. shouting loyalty to Sir Keir. Comparisons to Lady Macbeth abound. In a ballot of the broader party, Ms Rayner would bury Sir Keir. Sir Keir is smart enough to know this, so if Ms Rayner gets her 20%+, that’s as good as 100%. A self-imposed DCM might occur.
With Ms Raynor in Number 10, the government would sharply move from centre-left to halfway to Jezza Corbyn nutters’ collective. Sterling (the currency) and gilts (UK government bonds) would fall.
5. Hey, Australia now has its own…
…Greta. It had to happen.
Yes, folks, former Australian of the Year Grace Tame has shown that she is as ignorant of the world as Greta Thunberg. Grace’s chanting of “from Gadigal to Gaza, globalise the intifada” from a stage at a protest against Israeli President Herzog displays that she either supports global terrorism and Hamas or she doesn’t know what intifada means.
Greta morphed from a climate activist to a whingeing issues’ activist in the space of a few short years.
Grace morphed from an advocate for survivors of sexual assault to now passing Whingeing Issues’ Activism 101. Her former and courageous advocacy will now be forgotten. As she herself forgets the hundreds of Israeli women and girls sexually assaulted by Hamas on 7 October 2023.
6. Unclear on the concept
Trumpster’s latest threat against Canada endangers the opening of a new bridge that links Ontario with Michigan, writing, ‘I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated.’ Rather like the troll under the bridge.3
Hmm. Construction costs were entirely funded by Canada, it was built using American steel and it will be jointly owned by the governments of both Canada and Michigan.
The billy goats will win. The troll will die.
3 Readers will recall the fairy tale of The Three Billy Goats Gruff.
7. RBA’s GDP forecasts more than 1% lower than Treasury’s
It must have been Mark Twain who said that forecasting was very difficult, especially about the future. Well, FY-28 is a long way off. But not too far for both the RBA and Treasury to give their respective forecasts for economic growth. And the gap between them, if there is large one, will be embarrassing for one of them.
Y’see, the last Friday, the RBA has released its medium-term forecasts. For FY-28, Australia’s GDP growth is expected to be anaemic. In fact, at 1.6%, it is the worst medium-term forecast since 1990…
Clipped from the Australian Financial Review 10 February 2026.
The problem is that in Grim Jim’s 17 December Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, Treasury had forecast 2.75% growth for FY-28, over 1% points worse than the RBA’s.
Grim Jim’s budget revenue is pinned to GDP growth. A 2.75% growth outcome would be peachy. Then Grim Jim would only need to make sure that expenses were within budget. A big task, no doubt.
But if GDP growth is even near to the RBA’s forecast, Grim Jim’s budget is toast.
8. Japan’s female PM blasts opponents out of the water
“That ain’t a landslide. This is a landslide.” That’s what Sanae Takaichi said when her massive electoral victory was confirmed in Japan’s election last Sunday. Actually, she didn’t. But she might have.
Her party (LDP) and coalition party (JIP) now control over 75% of lower house seats, which means that the upper house cannot oppose her legislation.
She is a conservative national security hawk. And now has a clear mandate to stimulate the economy and boost Japan’s defence capability.
If it is possible, Emperor Eleven now has thousand-year-old egg on his face. He tried to monster Takaichi last November when she made comments she made about Taiwan. She said that an attack on Taiwan might constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
She declined to retract her comments when demanded so to do by Emperor Eleven’s mandarins.
Emperor Eleven had three alternatives in response to her massive victory: (a) lower the temperature; (b) play with a straight bat; or (c) turn up the gas.
He chose (c): “A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman on Monday urged Japan to retract Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan and warned of consequences for any rash actions.”
9. No surprise there
The news that Jimmy Lai, the former Hong Kong media baron and fierce critic of Emperor Eleven, had been sentenced to 20 years in jail for sedition should not have come as a surprise.
He might have been given a life sentence, so the message from the three Beijing-approved judges was one of sympathy. Well, not really. Jimmy is 78-years old.
Jimmy is a victim of Hong Kong’s new security laws, that came into force after the pro-democracy demonstrations of 2019. Jimmy’s newspaper Apple Daily often published nasty comments about Emperor Eleven and the decline of democracy in Hong Kong.
The 2025 ranking of countries’ media freedom by Reporters Without Borders4 ranks Hong Kong at 140th globally, of 180 countries. The only consolation might be that Emperor Eleven’s empire is ranked 178th. Australia is ranked 29th, with Trumpsterdom ranked 57th. Of the top 20 countries, 18 are European, the exceptions being New Zealand and Trinidad and Tobago.
4 Source: Index | RSF
10. Retail crime: spot the leader
Snippets from all over
Barmy Army breaks records
The Ashes Test cricket series has delivered Australia’s tourism industry more UK visitors in a single month than ever before as the Barmy Army stormed down under to cheer on England. (The Australian 13 February)
Wry & Dry comments: That’s the only record the Poms took home.
Big mining
Alphabet [Google’s parent company] has lined up banks to sell a rare 100-year bond, stepping up a borrowing spree by Big Tech companies racing to fund their vast investments in artificial intelligence this year. (Financial Times 12 February)
Wry & Dry comments: The 100-year bond will be denominated in Sterling. Argentina, Austria, Walt Disney and Coca-Cola have all issued 100-year bonds. Argentina’s 2117 7.125% bond is currently trading at 68.7 – which means a buyer at issue has a capital loss of 31.3%. But has another 91 years to regain the loss. But the interest rate of 7.125% is healthy, some 3% over the US 30-year bond.
The Italian Job
Masked robbers armed with Kalashnikovs held up an armoured truck on a motorway in southern Italy, blowing off its doors before making a getaway in a dramatic police chase. (The Times 10 February)
Wry & Dry comments: “You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!” Michael Caine as Charlie Croker, in the original and better The Italian Job: click Bing Videos.
Death by mushroom
California state health authorities are warning people to stop foraging wild mushrooms as the death toll from a poisoning outbreak increased to four and as more than three dozen people have been sickened since November. (Wall Street Journal, 8 February)
Wry & Dry comments: The type of mushroom was… the death cap mushroom.
King Charles ready to work with police
The King has given his backing for Buckingham Palace to assist the police investigation into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. (UK Telegraph, 10 February)
Wry & Dry comments: Be careful for what you wish. Mountbatten-Windsor is an unexploded bomb.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“Labour must “remember our values and put them into practice… The Prime Minister has my full support in leading us to that end.”
Angela Rayner, UK’s former Deputy PM, speaking after a cabinet meeting called to support the embattled PM Sir Keir Starmer.
Wry & Dry comments: This is a “the coach has the full support of the board” comment. Later, a mischievous AI chatbot released a media release that summed it up: “We must all now move forward to implement incremental change at radical pace.”
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
By the way, Wry & Dry is on leave next week.
Cheers!
Read this week’s edition of Investment Matters.
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