Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig deeply dives into:
- the latest inflation data
- it’s worse than looks
- an ‘around the grounds’ research update:
- Life360
- Develop Global
To read Investment Matters, you can still click at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Wry & Dry’s bumper issue ponderings…
The Gnats’ Leader has painted his farmyard collective into a sparse corner of the top right-hand paddock. Grim Jim channels Miracle Morrison’s favourite excuse: “Not my problem”. Trumpster’s Armada sails too late to save Iranian protesters. The EU shuts the gate, but the horse has not only bolted but also disappeared. Unique Tasmanian solution to productivity.
1. Meanwhile, in the top paddock…
In a Houdini-like contortion, the Gnats (aka the National Party, a tail of right-wing agrarian socialists much fond of wagging the dog, the dog otherwise known as its erstwhile coalition partner, the Liberals) are both circling the wagons and forming a circular firing squad.
Consider that a maverick and hitherto unknown Gnat MP wants to get his name in the media. And so said on Wednesday that he would challenge Gnat Leader Littleproud for the top gig. He will probably get as many as one vote in any ballot. Such is fame.
At the same time, Littleproud has refused to countenance a meeting with Liberal Head Girl Ley, to the frustration of the few wise heads in the Gnat’s top paddock. Those who count numbers of any sort (see more, below) know that without the Libs the Gnats will become a corrugated iron outhouse of a rural rump.
Currently and wisely, the Libs will not give Littleproud the satisfaction of them giving the DCM to Head Girl Ley. And now that Head Girl Ley has given him a week to come to his senses.
So, Littleproud has come to a fork in the road. Will he take it?1
And once again, just when Ley and her shadow treasurer tried to make Wednesday’s media conversation about the government’s failure on economic policy and inflation, and just like on the Bondi Massacre Memorial Day, the Gnats made the headlines about themselves.
1 “If you come to a fork in the road, take it.” Yogi Berra, legendary Major League Baseball player and speaker of malapropisms.
2. Grim Jim will follow Trumpster and backdown. Really?
It has been a week of Trumpster backdowns. Consider: “I don’t want to invade any country that ends in ‘land’ ”; “NATO troops were actually at the front line in Afghanistan”; and “maybe there is a problem with ICE and Minneapolis, after all.”
Is it possible that Treasurer Grim Jim will also backdown? And say that he and Uncle Albo have not only failed to address Australia’s shocking productivity but also spent too much of borrowed money. Both of which have caused inflation to continue its upward trend.
Consider that in June 2025, CPI was 2%. In December 2025, it was 3.7%. Not quite a doubling, but what the heck is going on? [Actually, to find out, read Craig Shepherd’s insightful explanation in this week’s Investment Matters].
And how might Grim Jim explain why Australia is so different from the rest of the world?
Of course, Grim Jim toothily came out fighting: “I take responsibility for doing my job to address this inflation challenge in our economy and to address the productivity challenge in our economy.”
He has failed in both. Which suggest that Uncle Albo should give him the DCM.
2 Don’t come Monday.
3. Trumpster washes his hands. And then sails.
On Wednesday, Trumpster said that “a massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm and purpose.” [How about that: ships having enthusiasm.]
Could this be a belated apology for another TACO. That is, abandoning Iranian protesters (“keep demonstrating” and then “help is on the way”) when he decided at the last minute against a military response to the regime’s brutal crackdown? Over 10,000 Iranians gave their lives in the hope of Trumpster’s intervention.
Apology? Well. Sort of. Maybe. In fact, no. This is all about landing a few large bombs on the Supreme Leader’s front lawn if Iran doesn’t dismantle its nuclear programme, limit the range of its missiles and ends support for its proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
The ‘Armada’ is not big in numbers (just one aircraft carrier and three destroyers), but it carries some serious muscle. And it is supported by considerable other ‘assets located nearby’.
Perhaps Trumpster should show some real courage and after turning Iran’s nuclear facilities into a parking lot, divert the Armada to the Black Sea. To bring Tsar Vlad to his senses.
And Trumpster’s use of the term ‘Armada’ may not be wise. Readers will know what happened to the last fleet of naval ships called an Armada.3
3 The Spanish Armada’s objective, to invade England in 1588 and reinstate Catholicism, ended badly. It was destroyed by the Royal Navy and bad weather.
4. Factoid 1
Since 2015, more that 8.5 million people have crossed the EU’s external borders to claim asylum. Some 55% were refused and on average 80% of those asked to leave did not do so. And melted anonymously into the EU.
In clear response to a continent-wide anger at this and its socially disruptive consequences, the EU’s new home affairs and migration commissioner now wants to institute a radical overhaul of this failed asylum and migration policy. This week, he said he had an objective of “bringing the numbers down and keeping them down.”
Good luck with your project, sir. You are up against a small but very pushy group: the collective of refugee NGOs, human rights organisations, such as the International Rescue Committee or Amnesty International, as well as social democratic, liberal and green political parties.
Surely, the horse has bolted. The consequence of which is that far-right parties are using the immigrant/ asylum issue as a policy front for their more, err, alarming ideals. The centre-left, centre and centre-right parties have only themselves to blame.
Reform in the UK and AfD in Germany are reaping the harvest.
5. Factoid 2
The Parliamentary Budget Office has calculated that Uncle Albo and Grim Jim would need to cut 28,000 jobs from the federal bureaucracy over the next four years to meet its forecast for public sector wages’ costs.
Wry & Dry is not gambling man, but would welcome any Reader making a market on that happening.
6. Gnats facing oblivion unless it rejoins Libs
It’s all about numbers. A concept unknown in the deeper recesses of the minds of the Gnats.
Courtesy of a sharing arrangement with the Libs in Victoria and New South Wales (Gnats automatically get second place on the ticket), the Gnats currently hold two Senate seats (ex Queensland, where the party is joined at the hip to the Liberals). The Libs hold 20 Senate seats.
Without that arrangement, the Gnats would comfortably fail to get a quota, even after preferences. And hence not have a Senator.
If there is a permanent split, the Gnats will lose staff and resources; and its shadow ministry and cabinet will all take a pay cut. For example, Gnat Leader Littleproud loses his additional compensation for being deputy leader of the Opposition, some $71,000 p.a. Shadow ministers would lose $42,000 p.a.
Ouch.
7. Board of Peace
Was it classic project creep? Or Trumpster’s desire to run the world? Trumpster’s Board of Peace was originally discussed as a vehicle to manage the reconstruction of Gaza. It has now morphed into Trumpster’s rival to the United Nations.
Headed by himself, the Board of Peace gives him full control of funds and a power of veto. It has become the mother of all vanity projects. There are 44 countries in Europe. Only three (Hungary, Albania and Belarus) have accepted the invitation to join. Elsewhere, Tsar Vlad and Emperor Eleven also received the gold embossed invitation; can any Reader imagine that either despot would subsume himself to Trumpster? Nuh.
An invitation also rests on Uncle Albo’s desk. Where it is rapidly being snowed under by memos from Grim Jim trying to explain away Australia’s economic morass.
8. What Uncle Albo wisely didn’t do
In a clear exposition of “I’d better not create a political storm about this after all the recent stuff-ups”, Uncle Albo did not choose one-of-the-boys to succeed one-of-the-boys as Ambassador to the Court of Trumpster.
He appointed Greg Moriarty, current Secretary of the Department of Defence. Moriarty was previously Chief of Staff to former PM Croesus Turnbull. A wise appointment from many angles.
By the way #1, Moriarty is not related to either Professor James Moriarty or Count Jim Moriarty.
By the way #2, the outgoing one-of-the-boys has quietly put up his hand for the top gig at the UN. He also tried this in 2016 and was ignored, as seemingly impossible as that might be.
9. Absurd headline of the month
It must have been a really slow day. Actually, it wasn’t. It was Australia Day. And there was more content to cram into a national daily than might be found in a Liberal-Gnats peace-pipe smoking ceremony.
So, the wonder was why did the Australian newspaper lead with a front-page headline that the family of Liberal Wannabe PM Andrew Hastie had given its blessing for him to run for top gig? And also offer a cute, Australian Women’s Weekly-style family photo and soft article on page four.
Of course, Readers will be relieved that there is no conflict in the Hastie family. And will doubtless look forward to the Australian offering up similar no-family-conflict-here headlines for the other leadership contenders Angus Taylor, Ted O’Brian, or [insert any other name, here].
Weirdly, the Australian is unashamedly Hastie biased. weirdly, because Hastie’s economic policies run counter to the usual free market approach of the paper; he is a comfortable economic populist.
Hastie’s rival, Angus Taylor, is the opposite. He comfortably wears the free-market cloth of Howard and Costello. But he cannot string two words together.
Head Girl Ley comfortably sits on any fence.
Audible sigh.
10. Unique Tasmanian productivity lifting policy
In one of the most oxymoronic policies that have surfaced in living memories, a Tasmanian local council has commenced a four-day week for its workers on the basis that it will lift productivity.
Workers in the Launceston City Council will (a) receive 100% of the before compensation; (b) work 80% of the before hours; and (c) achieve 100% of the before productivity. Really?
The council’s CEO, Sam Johnson, said that he was persuaded to change particularly because of Microsoft Japan’s trial of a four-day work week, where sales productivity improved by 40%.
However, Mr. Johnson’s research into Microsoft Japan’s success seems superficial, to say the least. It was a pilot, not a permanent change. And just for one-month trial. It was unclear if the productivity spike could be sustained over longer periods. And Microsoft did not roll out a permanent four‑day week across Japan.
Most critically, the four‑day week worked for four weeks because work practices, work-flow, processes and sales incentives were redesigned. It wasn’t just that work was merely compressed.
Mr. Johnson did not elaborate on the redesign of processes and work-practices that he must surely also introduce.
Of course, if productivity falls to below the 100% of the before figure, Mr. Johnson will not be able to put the toothpaste back into the tube.
11. BBC again shows its colours
In the epitome of anti-semitism the venerable BBC said on Tuesday in a news report that UK’s Holocaust Memorial Day was “for remembering the six million people murdered by the Nazi regime over 80 years ago”.
Somehow, the BBC forgot to mention that it was 6 million Jews who were murdered.
Snippets from all over
1. ICE causes US budget bill to freeze
America’s Senate failed to advance a spending bill, putting the government at risk of a partial shutdown this weekend. Democrats and some Republicans oppose the inclusion of funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees immigration enforcement operations. (Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: The scales are falling from the eyes of some Republicans.
2. Indonesia’s stockmarket plunges
Indonesian stocks plunged on Wednesday after index provider MSCI warned about the market’s investability and of a potential reclassification that could threaten to reduce capital flows to the country. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: That makes minus 15% in two days. This to the surprise of no-one. The rupiah is trading at record lows against the dollar after President Prabowo Subianto nominated his nephew to be deputy governor of the central bank. Last year, Prabowo sacked finance minister Sri Mulyani, who was widely seen as a safe pair of hands and respected by international investors.
3. Tesla’s sales decline
Tesla’s annual revenue declined for the first time in 2025. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: It is possible that Trumpster’s policies (especially cancelation of EV sales incentives) and a consumer backlash to Musk’s political activism weighed on consumers.
4. US long-term unemployment rises
Unemployed Americans are taking longer to find new jobs than at any point in the past four years as muted hiring deepens concerns about the labour market. (Financial Times, 28 January)
Chart source: Financial Times 26 January 2026.
Wry & Dry comments: Canary in the coal mine?
5. Top Chinese general gets DCM
China’s senior-most general is accused of leaking information about the country’s nuclear-weapons program to the U.S. and accepting bribes for official acts, including the promotion of an officer to defense minister. (Wall Street Journal, 27 January)
Wry & Dry comments: He will have already fallen from the 17th floor.
6. More Conservative defections
Suella Braverman, a former home secretary for Britain’s Conservative party, defected to Reform UK, the hard-right party of Nigel Farage. (The Times, 27 January)
Wry & Dry comments: Another rat leaving a leaking but sturdy ship, and swimming towards a latter-day Titanic.
It figures
- 3.7%: Australia, inflation in 2025, up from 3.2%. Expect a rate increase.
- 0.0%: USA, interest rate change, when the Fed met on Wednesday. As expected by the market, but not by Trumpster.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“He’s crazy.”
Aviaja Sinkbaek, an office manager in Greenland, when asked about Trumpster’s desire to annexe Greenland.
Wry & Dry comments: No need for thousand-word editorials, essays or theses.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!