Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
But firstly, a snapshot of this week’s Investment Matters:
- a review of the positioning of our International Equities sub-portfolio
- a report on the Beach Energy result
To read Investment Matters, just click on the link at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
1. Retire to Donaldonia – the Riviera of the Middle East
Alongside Gaz-a-Lago, the Trump Gaza Strip club is the heart of the entertainment district. Trump Golf Med, one of the five rubble-belt courses, is just a short buggy ride from Trump Gaza Tower.
The Trump Drill Baby Drill dental clinic is adjacent to the Real Men Only Medical Centre. The Handmaidens’ Medical Centre for Women is just over palm-lined Trump Boulevard, next to the Orange Suntan and Big Hair Spa.
In the Gaza Business District, all buildings have a height limit of five stories, except the world’s tallest building, the 135 story Trump Gaza Hotel. That eight-star hotel has amazing views over the Mediterranean American Sea. Trump Business Tower and January Six Business Centre are nearby.
The Trump Apprentice Academy is alongside the Conservative Justices of the Supreme Court Memorial Law Courts.
… Spend your retirement in Donaldonia – the Riviera of the Middle East. See overleaf for contact details.
Disclaimer: this brochure is subject to no proceedings being brought under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States.1
1 Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution relates to presidential succession and disability: “Whenever the Vice President and a majority of …the principal officers of the executive departments… transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.” If the President objects, the Vice President requires a two-thirds vote of both Houses to dismiss the President.
2. When ‘many’ means ‘few’
Uncle Fester Dutton’s second policy (up to $20,000 tax deductions for small businesses to spend on staff meal and entertainment expenses) has spectacularly blown up in his face.
It’s not only that it is a daft policy that fails the this-is-serious-tax-reform test. Nor that there were not any serious costings available from Uncle Fester when the policy was announced (which meant that for the first time ever, Treasurer Grim Jim toasted Uncle Fester in parliament).
It was that Uncle Fester announced on Sunday that the Coalition had the experience to manage cuts to government spending, and hence lunches at we-the-taxpayers’ expense could be managed.
“Many of us have sat around the Expenditure Review Committee,” he opined. The ERC generally has nine members.
‘Many’ would probably mean six or more members. Err, nuh. When he says ‘many of us’ he means ‘three of us’. Y’see only Uncle Fester, wannabe Finance Minister Michael Sukkar and other wannabe Finance Minister Jane Hume have sat on the ERC. Wry & Dry would think that three of nine as ‘few’.
If Uncle Fester says that ‘three’ means ‘many’, then Readers should form a prayer circle for the Coalition’s fiscal policies.
3. Super deals
Albo and Grim Jim are super keen to get their 30% superannuation tax legislation through the Senate.
The legislation is to increase to 30% from 15% the tax on superannuation earnings on the component above $3m. Unrealised capital gains will be taxed for the first time and the $3m threshold will not be indexed.
But the Senate tax wheels were spinning. To woo the recalcitrant cross bench Senators, Grim Jim promised a carrot: he would agree with their wish to curtail debit and credit card surcharges if they would agree to the new tax.
No thanks, said the cross bench. With its own 25 Senators, 11 Greens and 2 Quislings (Senators Thrope and Payman) in his pocket, Grim Jim needs just one more vote.
Yesterday’s vote was deferred until next week, which might give Grim Jim enough time to wet the beak of one cross bench Senator.
4. Spot the outlier 1
5. Tariffs are part of Trumpster’s ‘deal-flow’
Sigh. When will the world realise that the Trumpster is interested in doing deals.
So, he will create chaos in an area that will end with a deal that he can call a victory. He will always say that “it’s the biggest deal the world has seen,” when the thinking world knows it is not.
He lives on deals, so the world should expect that he will keep making pockets of chaos, the solving of which requires a deal. Readers should expect what investment bankers call regular ‘deal flow’.
As journalist Janan Ganesh pointed out this week, the Trumpster is open to what Henry Kissinger called “linkage”. If he is upset about one thing, he can be mollified with a gesture on something apparently unrelated.
Which brings Wry & Dry to tariffs. Countries that are smart enough to do deals that appear to be a victory for the Trumpster will avoid most of the tariff pain. Europe, want to avoid a trade war? Spend more on defence.
The aim for the counterparty is to get results, not kudos.
The mystery is, of course, what possible deal could arise from his plan for the US to annexe Gaza, deport 2.1m Gazans and build a Middle Eastern Riviera? In this case, the answer doesn’t matter.
Aside from wanting deal-flow, the Trumpster likes making the headlines. So, it remains a mystery to Wry & Dry why the world collectively wet its bed with the announcement: no part of the Gaza plan is feasible.
6. Hydrogen truck maker goes the full Hindenburg2
The renewables investment world went nutzo in 2020. Good grief, a truck powered by hydrogen!
And so Nikola3 went public and was valued more than the venerable Ford Motor Company. Which was weird, as it hadn’t sold one single truck. But, well, who cares; it’s a truck powered by hydrogen. Think of the possibilities!
And, well, who cares that the company’s founder and former CEO, Trevor Milton, was convicted of fraud in 2022 for misrepresenting the company’s business. And sentenced to four years in the slammer.
In the last September quarter, Nikola sold just 80 trucks. And somehow lost nearly $200m. That’s a commendable loss of $2.5m per truck. Someone in the company has woken up and thought it might be a good idea to stop making trucks before the cash runs out. Rumour has it that a bankruptcy filing is near.
There is a moral somewhere in this.
2 The Hindenburg was a passenger carrying zeppelin (airship) that caught fire and was destroyed when trying to dock, New Jersey in 1937. The airship used masses of hydrogen to achieve it’s lighter than air characteristic. Sadly, hydrogen is highly inflammable. As many as 35 people died in the disaster.
3 Like Tesla, the company was Named after Nikola Tesla, a Serbian engineer and inventor.
7. There must be an election coming
In the Banana Republic of Victoria there are two bye-elections tomorrow. One a safe Labor seat, the other an equally safe Greens’ seat.
But the Labor Premier is not taking any chances. She has ordered a review of the state’s bail laws, which her government had weakened in 2023. This in response to escalating youth crime.
Err, well, not quite. Later that day the premier’s Police Minister said that he wouldn’t call it a review, his role was just putting forward ideas on improving community safety. He doesn’t need to sit down with the police, lawyers, and criminal justice experts.
Clearly, a Claytons review. Well, a small one. Just before Saturday.
Coincidently, on the same day seven teenagers, six of whom are already on bail, were arrested for speeding in stolen cars. One of the lads had been released on bail ‘dozens’ of times.
8. Spot the outlier 2
9. The big issue
The Trumpster’s son, the Trumpster Junior (aged 47) has been reported to Italian police. The crime: shooting at and killing a rare ‘ruddy shelduck’ on a hunting trip in the Venice lagoon.
Readers will know that the ruddy shelduck (Tadorna ferruginea) is a member of the family Anatidae. And is a protected species in Italy.
Italy being Italy, its excitable media is in an uproar. Also, this being Italy, arrangements, so to speak, will be made. The duck will be given an appropriate burial.
10. Lost in the wilderness
It’s as though there is just one political party in the US. The losing party, named the Democrats (remember), has, well, disappeared.
For example, Readers will remember that minutes after his inauguration, the Trumpster issued a blanket pardon for about 1,500 people convicted of storming Capitol Hill.
Readers will not have noticed that eight days later Democrat leaders held a media conference to condemn the Trumper’s decision.
Sigh.
Snippets from all over
1. Trumpsters White House rebuild
President Trump has proposed building a $100 million ballroom at the White House to host parties and state dinners, promising to pay for the grandiose extension himself. (The Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Who will get naming rights?
2. Cocaine on the rocks?
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has said that “cocaine is no worse than whisky” as the production of coca, the drug’s base ingredient, surges under his presidency. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Perhaps Senor Gustavo is the beneficiary of a, err, ‘personal tariff’ on cocaine.
3. Harry to be deported?
Prince Harry is bracing for the possible release of his US visa records as the case over claims he concealed his past drug use is heard in court for the first time since Donald Trump became president. (The Times)
Wry & Dry comments: The Spare admitted in his 2023 memoir, Spare, that he experimented with cocaine, cannabis and psychedelic substances, which he would have been required to disclose on forms filed before he relocated to California in 2020.
4. Out Muskled
Chinese electric car titan BYD has overtaken Tesla in British sales for the first time as public opinion sours towards Elon Musk. (UK Telegraph)
Wry & Dry comments: It might be that BYDs are much cheaper than Teslas. Or Musk’s foray into European politics to back far-right parties.
5. Spotify’s first profit
Spotify reported its first full year of profitability since its launch in 2008. (Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: Spotify now has 675m active users.
It figures
- 0.25%: UK – the percent points cut in official interest rates, the third in six months.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“The Gaza Strip would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting.”
The President of the USA, in a post on his Truth Social platform.
Wry & Dry comments: So, add Gaza to Canada, Greenland and Panama Canal. Will Ukraine be next? Where are the men in white coats?
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!