Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
But firstly, a snapshot of this week’s Investment Matters:
- December inflation estimates: Will the Reserve Bank cut interest rates this month?
- EarlyPay: AFR reports corporate activity
- Activity reports and updates from mining companies
- DeepSeek: NVIDIA, AI and China – a perspective
To read Investment Matters, just click on the link at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Now to Wry & Dry’s Bumper New Year edition…
…with a bumper summary of what Readers have missed whilst on the beach:
The Coronation
The coronation of the Trumpster had many of the features of that of Napoleon:
- A decent venue (but not quite like Notre-Dame de Paris)
- Crowds of adoring fans (but not as noble, so to speak, as those in Notre-Dame)
- High ceremony (but it was surprising that the Trumpster didn’t administer the Oath of Allegiance to himself, as Napoleon took the crown from the Pope and crowned himself)
- Music (Napoleon had two orchestras, four choirs and over 300 musicians; somewhat more than the Village People)
- Some beautifully dressed women (but no hats in Notre-Dame)
- Masses of hangers-on (billionaires instead of Pope Pius VII and his attendants)
After crowning himself, Napoleon crowned Empress Josephine. The painting is by Jacques-Louis David (who painted himself into the picture) and hangs in the Louvre.
In the end, Napoleon’s ambition and arrogance cost plenty. His good deeds1 were a poor match for his bad.2
The Trumpster’s legacy remains to be seen. Wry & Dry wonders what will be his Waterloo? Perhaps his large mouth…
1 Modernising legal and administrative reforms, establishing a system of public education, emancipation of Jews and other religious minorities, abolition of the Spanish Inquisition, etc.
2 Started wars that devastated Europe, looted conquered territories, abolished the free press, ended directly elected representative government, exiled and jailed critics of his regime, reinstated slavery in France’s colonies, banned the entry of blacks and mulattos into France, and reduced the civil rights of women and children in France.
In good company
The Trumpster withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, thereby joining Iran, Libya and Yemen as the only four countries not party to the agreement.
TrumpMaps: Gulf of America
A world map from 1607 that labelled North America as ‘Mexican America’ also labelled the Gulf of Mexico as the ‘Gulf of Mexico’. A mere 169 years before the United States was founded.
A lame Donald duck?
The Trumpster’s in a hurry. As he needs to be. In two years, the so-called mid-term elections will be held. It is possible, but unlikely that the Republicans will lose the Senate, but they might lose the House.3
A loss of either or both means he would spend two years as a lame duck president. A lame Donald Duck, if you will.
3 Thirty-five Senate places will be contested, 33 of which were elected in 2020. Senators serve six-year terms. All 435 House districts will be contested. House congresspeople serve two-year terms.
Who loves, ya, baby?
Not many. Only two of 24 countries’ peoples clearly consider that the Trumpsters will be good for their country. Note Ukraine’s equivocation.
6. At the Oscars
It was a gutsy move by those Oscar people, nominating The Apprentice for a couple of awards.
Y’see, the film is a blunt account of the 1970s and 1980s rise of the Trumpster.
All of California will be rooting for the film to win at least one statue. Especially Governor Newsom.
Who is going to pick the oranges?
The Trumpster’s signing of an executive order to find alternative countries of residence for some 11.5m American residents has caused much analysis. Especially how it’s going to happen, or might happen.
But it seems that no-one has asked the Trumpster, “Who is going to pick the oranges?” Or the avocados, grapes or whatever. Because it seems that hard work in the sun is not the preferred occupation of Anglo-Americans.
Almost 5% of California’s GDP comes from hard work in the sun. Compare and contrast: IT is about 15% of the state’s economy.
Is this the chance for Australia’s avocado, wine, orange, etc. industries? Readers should be alert for policy announcements from each of Albo and Uncle Fester. Just sayin’.
8. And remember…
… the Trumpster is married to an immigrant.
And now, the other news…
Peace in our time?
In the end, it came in a rush. The Israeli/Hamas ceasefire agreement was signed in time-on in the last quarter. Sleepy Joe patted himself on the back. The Trumpster took all credit. Gazans were delighted. Bibi breathed a sigh of relief. Iran is still working out what went wrong. The media were delighted with the photo ops.
Oh, how quick the world forgets.
Hamas is Hydra4, rapidly regenerating as Wry & Dry writes. Bibi is weary from the fighting, but loves nothing more than a war/battle/skirmish to cover his own sins. A new generation of Gazans have now grown to loathe Israel and Jews even more: what was a battle for land is now also one for revenge. Iran is playing the long game.
It’s the same story that has repeated since 2006.
And violent anti-Semitism has taken root 14,000 kilometres from Israel. And is growing.
Is this Albo’s Future Made in Australia?
4 A serpent-like lake monster in Greek and Roman mythology, with six heads. Every time a head was chopped off, two would regrow.
All the leaves are black. And the sky is grey…
In a city that gave the world a hero every week, where was the real-life hero in fire-ravaged Los Angeles? Cometh the hour, cometh the man/woman. Err, maybe not.
Somehow, dreamily, Wry & Dry expected more from the city that gave the world Clint Eastwood and Bruce Willis. Where was a person of the right stuff?
No New York mayor Rudy Giuliani5 standing ground at Ground Zero on 9-11, and reassuring Americans that terrorism would only make them stronger. No Major-General Stratton visibly taking charge of disaster management after Cyclone Tracy.6
The Mayor gave a brief news conference and told residents where they could find emergency resources. Useful. The Governor (i.e. state premier) issued a video, defending his record and response to the crisis. Useless.
Sleepy Joe tossed billions at the city. Of course. The Trumpster instigated a schoolyard squabble with the Governor. Of course.
The reality: what Californian firefighters needed from government in an emergency was a working fire hydrant, not an electric-vehicle mandate.
Governor Newsom’s 2028 presidential chances are dead in the water.
5 Before his name was tarnished with a suitcase of criminal indictments.
6 A small but devastating cyclone that destroyed Darwin of Christmas Day 1974. More than 80% of houses and 70% of buildings were destroyed. The city was evacuated, with one Qantas B-747 carrying 673 evacuees. About the same number that is today squeezed in a Qantas B-737.
Still a nuclear power station near you
Uncle Fester Dutton decided against an Albo-like January road trip. And instead hit a marginal electorate in the Third World Republic of Victoria to open his faux election campaign.
He also opted not to outbid Albo. In fact, he said overturning much of Albo’s fiscal largesse would be risky.
But wait, there’s more. Last week he announced his second major policy. Small business owners with sales of up to $10m would be able to write-off up to $20,000 for their staff to indulge in ‘business-related meal and entertainment’ expenses. No costing provided.
Really? This is a tax-reform policy? For a person who wants to show serious policies, this is, well, an unserious policy.
But, of course, there will be funding for a nuclear power station near you. That is serious stuff.
Aiming to land on Greenland. Buy it. And buy a hotel.
Apparently an astute Monopoly player, the Trumpster has again raised his wish to purchase more real estate: Greenland. If he does this, and also reclaims the Panama Canal and Canada, he can put a hotel on each. The rent will be huge.
He already has an uncancellable Get Out of Jail Free Card – it’s called the US Supreme Court.
Of course, the purchase or theft of massive amounts of land is in the DNA of Anglo Americans. About 70% of current US area was either bought (from France, Spain, or Russia) or stolen (from Mexico).7 Unarguably, the land of the original 13 states was also stolen (from native Americans).
A purchase of Greenland today would be about the same size as the 1803 Louisiana Purchase from France. Using the then value, the cost of buying Greenland today would be about $380m. Denmark will want a higher price: it costs it over $1bn p.a. to subsidise the lives of Greenland’s 50,000 people.
Perhaps, Denmark should auction Greenland – the bidding would be fierce, the price astronomical. Imagine the Trumpster, Emperor Eleven and Tsar Vlad in the one room, each with a bidding paddle.
7 In 1803 the Louisiana Purchase occurred, from Napoleon, a keen seller, for US$15m. This was the massive drainage basin to the west of the Mississippi River, i.e. all or most of 13 states; some 2.1m km2 were purchased.
In 1819 Spain sold Florida to the US for US$5m. About 170,000 km2 was grabbed. In 1845 Texas (formerly the Republic of Texas) was annexed. About 1m km2 was grabbed. In 1848 Mexico ceded California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona and part of New Mexico to the US. This it did because it lost the Mexican-American War. About 1.4m km2 was grabbed.
In 1867 Alaska was purchased from Russia for US$7.2m (about $130m today). Some 1.7m km2 was grabbed.
We had to smash the village to save it
Soon after it was elected, the UK’s new government cracked down on the tax arrangements for ‘nom doms’ (i.e. someone who lives in the UK but whose permanent residence is registered abroad). In so doing, it cracked the golden egg of tax revenue from them.
So, non-doms voted with their feet. Almost 10,000 have left the UK since the crackdown. According to the Adam Smith Institute, a think tank, the lost millionaires last year would each have paid £393,957 per year in income tax.
To raise more tax (and to ‘tax the rich’ to appease the lunatics to her left), the newbie Chancellor of the Exchequer had to lose tax revenue of some £4bn p.a.
Last year, only China lost more millionaires to other countries than the UK:
Alan Joyce’s legacy
The 2024 Skytrax airline awards have just been released. An announcement that all airlines eagerly await. Well, some less than others.
In the category of the world’s best economy class, the top airlines were Cathay, Qatar, Singapore, Japan Airlines, EVA (Taiwan), ANA (Japan) and Emirates.
Qantas finished outside the top 20.
Qantas has responded as expected. And announced a new range of uniforms for its flight attendants.
King of Woke’s DCM
“If you can see the torpedo, it’s too late” is an old nautical saw. Is it too late for Canada? Have the Canuks seen too late that now former PM Pierre Trudeau was nothing more than an articulate feel-good wus?9
Like the former kiwi Queen of Woke, emotion and empathy overwhelmed the reality of actually running a nation.
Trudeau gave himself the DCM with a popularity rating below Nathan Lyon’s batting average.
In a fast-moving world, is it too late for Canada to catch up? Especially with the Trumpster lowering the economic portcullis and raising the tariff drawbridge.
9 Canada’s GDP per capita has fallen for eight of the past nine quarters. And is the same as when Trudeau came to power nine years’ ago.
Snippets from all over
1. US interest rates unchanged
The Federal Reserve has left US interest rates on hold and has signalled that it is in no rush to adjust monetary policy, defying pressure from President Donald Trump for deep reductions in borrowing costs. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: The Trumpster has been sticking pins in his Jay Powell doll.
2. Deep weeps
On Monday a Chinese AI firm called DeepSeek blew a nearly $600bn hole in the value of Nvidia, an American chipmaker. It marked the biggest one-day loss in the history of America’s stockmarket. (Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: It’s not a ‘Sputnik moment’, as some tabloids would have it. But it scared the daylights out of the American and European AI industry.
3. Hedge fund fee bonanza
Investors in hedge funds have paid out almost half of their profits in fees since the early days of the industry more than half a century ago, new data shows. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: There’s one born every minute.
4. Shrinking China
China’s population has shrunk for the third successive year. (New York Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Emperor Eleven’s ‘marriage and childcare culture’ promotion has, seemingly, failed.
5. Spain’s 100% tax
Spain is planning to impose a 100 per cent tax on real estate purchases for buyers from non-EU countries in a bid to improve housing affordability by deterring foreign purchases. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Something Australia should have done 10 years ago, for all non-residents, that is.
It figures
- 3.2%: Australia – inflation in the 12 months to December, down.
- 4.0%: Australia – unemployment rate in December, up.
- 2.5%: USA – GDP growth in 2024.
- 0.25%: EU – the amount the European Central Bank lowered interest rates, to 2.75%.
- 5.0%: China – GDP growth in 2024 (thereby meeting the official target)
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“Because I have common sense.”
The 45th and 47th President of the USA, last night, in response to a question as to how he could draw the conclusion that yesterday’s mid-air collision in Washington DC was related to DEI initiatives.
He said that the Federal Aviation Administration was, “actively recruiting workers who suffer severe intellectual disabilities and psychiatric problems and other mental and physical conditions under diversity and inclusion hiring initiatives.”
Wry & Dry comments: It is now clear that they the American people have elected a president under DEI initiatives: i.e. someone with “severe intellectual disabilities and psychiatric problems.” Sadly, the irony will be lost on many Americans.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!