Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
This week Craig presents:
- A deep dive on gold miner Minerals 260
- Research comments on Ventia, Worley and Bluescope
- A brief on how companies are using AI
- A detailed review of the National Accounts (i.e. GDP data): “Bigger pie, same sized slices”
To read Investment Matters, you can still click at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Wry & Dry’s musings…
UK PM Starmer would prefer his dinner companion to his cabinet colleague, Rachel Reeves. The Victoria government review of a review fails to move the fiscal needle. Not only is Tsar Vlad playing Trumpster but so also are Zelensky and the EU. Emperor Eleven’s condom edict.
1. “You’ve got full support of the board…”
…are words no football coach/ manager wants to hear. Which brings Wry & Dry to UK PM Starmer. In his only happy moment this month, yesterday he found himself seated next to Claudia Schiffer at a State Banquet for the German President.1
Credit: BCA via PA via Canva.com
Which would have taken his mind off his unhappy moment, when he was earlier forced to express his “full support” for his hapless Chancellor of the Exchequer (Treasurer), Rachel Reeves.
Y’see, Ms Reeves has been, err, economical with the truth. She had warned of a £20-30bn budget shortfall, but Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) later revealed Reeves had been informed as early as September that the gap was much smaller and by October there was actually a £4.2bn surplus.
She used the budget-shortfall myth as an excuse to raise taxes and increase social welfare spending. Not surprisingly, a DCM avalanche has arisen. She now faces an independent ethics inquiry.
But the UK PM has given her his “full support.” Say no more: DCM being wrapped for Christmas.
1 Ms Schiffer, 55, was invited to Windsor Castle, as one of several prominent Germans living in Britain, because the event was in honour of their visiting president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Her married name is Lady Drummond – she is married to Sir Matthew de Vere Drummond, the film director, better known as Matthew Vaughn.
2. Victorian government’s public service review reviewed
In a fit of “something must be done”, Victoria’s new state Treasurer announced in February the creation of The Independent Review of the Victorian Public Service. The reviewer handed in her review on 30 June. The review was then reviewed by the government over the next five months to ensure that no-one in the public service would get hurt feelings.
The government review of the review reduced the review’s public servant and public entities reduction recommendations.
The size of the public service will be reduced by… 1.7%. As it had grown by 51% in the last ten years this seems, well unserious.
The reviewer also wanted to reduce by 78 the state’s 500 entities, but this was reduced to 29. The $427m saving became a saving of $27m. Unserious.
Importantly, the future of the Sheep and Goat Compensation Advisory Committee, the Victorian Strawberry Industry Development Committee and Honey Bee compensation and Industry Development Advisory Committee will be reviewed. Along with a further 87 other advisory committees.
Be excited!
3. Trumpster is also being played by Zelensky and EU
Trumpster is probably the most stupid US president since the last one.
Firstly, he still hasn’t realised that not only is he being played by Tsar Vald, but also by Zelensky and the EU. Zelensky and the EU are happy to prolong the subterfuge of peace talks progressing, when the entire world, except Trumpster, knows they are not. Witness the last two weeks’ of farcical activity.
The aim now, it seems, is for Ukraine to survive the bitter winter and allow (a) the increasing sanctions on Tsar Vlad to even more deeply wound his economy; and (b) the West to regroup and recharge its hardware support for Ukraine. For example, yesterday, the European Commission put forward a controversial plan to fund Ukraine by raising up to €210bn ($245bn) backed by frozen Russian state assets.
Secondly, Trumpster remains under the delusion that the Nobel Peace Prize is given for a surrender. Which is why he is doing everything to get Ukraine to accede to Tsar Vlad’s demands, those being tantamount to a surrender.
4. Trumpster and Nobel Peace Prize
Trumpster hasn’t considered that the winners of the Nobel Peace Prize2 are decided by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which is appointed by the Norwegian Parliament, not by Trumpster.
His problem is that the Norwegian Parliament (Storting) strongly supports Ukraine and opposes Tsar Vlad’s invasion:
- All parties in the Storting agreed to extend a special programme for Ukraine through 2030, committing at least $1.5bn per year and increasing total aid to $20bn
- For 2026, it has allocated an additional $8.4bn to Ukraine
- Norway repeatedly condemns Tsar Vlad’s attacks on civilians and infrastructure and urges him to withdraw from Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.
- Norway also rejected a recent U.S. peace plan that favoured Tsar Vlad’s interests, insisting any agreement must be fair and lasting.
The tail end of 2026 will be sad for Trumpster. The Democrats will regain control of the House in November. And on 10 December, the Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded to not Donald J Trump.
2 The Nobel Peace Prize is one of the five Nobel Prizes established by the will of Swedish industrialist, inventor, and armaments manufacturer Alfred Nobel, along with the prizes in Chemistry, Physics, Physiology or Medicine and Literature. Nobel invented dynamite.
5. Not quite Nutbush but Trumpster limited
On Tuesday there was a special election (i.e. bye-election) for the House seat TN-07 in Tennessee. Trumpster shouted from the rooftops that the Republican candidate had won, with a 9 point margin.
Hold the phone! Last year, in this same district, Trumpster defeated Kamala Kamala by 22 points.
Tuesday’s result was a 13% swing against Republicans; not happy news for Trumpster. Psephologists are already crying that if repeated nationwide (but it never does) in next year’s midterm elections, the House would return to Democrat control.
Trumpster’s lame-duckness would come early.
6. Emperor Eleven’s condom edict
Readers have to give Emperor Eleven credit where it’s due. In the face of a rapidly falling birth rate, he will impose a value added tax (i.e. GST) of 13% on contraceptive devices and drugs.
The same policy revision also exempts nurseries and kindergartens services from VAT.
China’s population has been declining for five consecutive years, by an increasing amount. And ten years ago, 18.8m babies were born in China. Last year there were 9.4m. Emperor Eleven had to do something.
But, if someone cannot afford a condom, how can they afford a child?
7. Political party led by… a committee
Jezza Corbyn, a 1960s evolutionary throwback, extreme left winger, one time leader of the UK Labour Party and victim of Borisconi’s landslide election win in 2019,3 was expelled from the Labour Party in 2024. But his desire to lead a far-left government was undiminished and he did what any such polly would do: start his own party.
And so ‘Your Party’ was formed, with Jezza as its interim leader. Your Party became a loose association of disenchanted leftist groups e.g. Socialist Worker’s Party, Democratic Socialists and other Trotskyist groups.
It held its inaugural conference last weekend. The Jezza got the DCM. And was replaced by… “collective leadership.” That is, a committee.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
3 Jezza led Labour to its worst election defeat since 1935, making it Labour’s fourth successive defeat.
8. Trumpster derangement update
Part I
A key part of Trumpster’s campaign was to stop the flow of drugs into America. And he tried all sorts of ways to do so, including missile attacks on seacraft (mini-submarines, speed boats, etc) allegedly shipping drugs into America. He is also about to approve airstrikes on Venezuela.
About a year ago, Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras, was sentenced to a federal jail in West Virginia for a 45-year prison sentence for cocaine trafficking. A mere 400 tonnes.
Last week, Trumpster said that Hernández was treated “very harshly and unfairly”. And gave him a “full and complete pardon.”
Part 2
Yesterday, in Washington DC, the US Institute of Peace was renamed the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace.
9. Into Africa
Tsar Vlad, not sated by grinding parts of Ukraine into Russia, has turned his attention to Africa. In February, Sudan offered Tsar Vlad his first naval base in Africa, a perch overlooking critical Red Sea routes.
Source: Wall Street Journal 1-Dec-25
The 25-year agreement was signed in February, but construction has been paused indefinitely because of the Sudanese civil war.
In exchange for the port, Sudan would obtain military kit from Tsar Vlad, at ‘preferential prices’. On Monday, the Sudanese Defence Ministry upped its military requirements to include Su-30 and Su-35 fighter aircraft. These are roughly equivalent to the F-15 or F-18 aircraft of the US.
For Tsar Vlad, a naval base on the Red Sea provides significant geostrategic leverage (and prestige). A squiz at the map shows why surrounding countries will be discombobulated by the move; Saudi Arabia and Egypt in particular.
Elsewhere across the dark continent, Tsar Vlad has around 5,000 of his troops scattered across eight African countries. Union of Soviet Socialist African Republics?
Snippets from all over
Eurovision
Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands and Slovenia said on Thursday that they were boycotting next year’s Eurovision Song Contest because Israel would continue to be allowed in the competition. (New York Times)
Wry & Dry comments: ..thereby politicising even more what had already become a political event.
Facial recognition technology use to expand in the UK
The [UK] Home Office is developing a new national facial matching service that will collect custody images of offenders. All 43 [police] forces in England and Wales will have access to the system to use crime scene footage to track suspects. (The Times)
Wry & Dry comments: The London Metropolitan Police is the technology’s most prolific proponent, using it to make 1,300 arrests in the past two years and finding more than 100 registered sex offenders in breach of their licence conditions.
The Devil buys Prada
Prada, a luxury fashion house from Milan, completed its purchase of Versace, a local rival, for €1.25bn ($1.4bn). (The Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: Wait for the law suits.
Hong Kong fire arrests
Police in Hong Kong arrested 13 people for suspected manslaughter following investigations into last week’s devastating apartment-complex fire. (Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: Doubtless the 13 will never be again seen.
Pardon me
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel asked its president on Sunday to pardon him in his long-running corruption trial, a request that the president called “extraordinary” and that critics said would run counter to the rule of law. (New York Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Netanyahu was indicted in 2019 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in connection with three separate, but interlocking cases, and he has been on trial for five years. And said that he would have preferred to prove his innocence in court, but that the national interest demanded otherwise. “Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he.”
It figures
- 2.1%: Australia – GDP growth in the year to end September, less than expected.
- 49.2: China – manufacturing index declined for the eighth consecutive month.
- 48.2: USA – manufacturing index declined for the ninth consecutive month.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“With the Russians, the attitude has always been that conspicuous cruelty is a necessary weapon of war – and we’re seeing this in Ukraine.”
Sir Antony Beevor, unarguably, the world’s leading historian of modern warfare, especially Russian, in an interview in the UK Telegraph.
Wry & Dry comments: The article continued:
Beevor predicts that Putin will press on with tormenting Ukraine regardless of any peace agreement. “He will certainly want to continue the war. Even if there is some form of ceasefire or peace negotiation, he will break that and blame it on Ukraine and the Europeans, and once again count on Trump wanting to be proved a peacemaker.”
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!