Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Nine stories you may have missed…
Übermensch
If ever the phrase “a week is a long time in politics” was apt it was this week. The indifferent Brits elected a government that received just 35% of the vote, the French effectively elected nobody to govern, and Jill Biden picked up the phone and ordered the removalists.
And, weirdly, surviving an assassination attempt makes a person a hero. Suddenly, the Trumpster is just that. A colourful blend of Horatio at the bridge, the 300 Spartans at Thermopylae, Jean Valjean at the barricade. All because the bullet missed.
But wait! There’s more. All sins have been purged. The nasty rumours of the Trumpster’s lies, bankruptcies, felony, insurrection, misogyny, etc. have been washed away. Well, not that he ever saw that he had committed any sins.
Be disturbed. Readers will be aware of ‘the great-man theory’,1 according to which history can be largely explained by the impact of great men, or heroes: highly influential and unique individuals who, due to their natural attributes, such as superior intellect, heroic courage, extraordinary leadership abilities, etc, have a decisive historical effect.
The danger is that the Trumpster now sees himself as ticking all the boxes, to use a very trite phrase. And already, the characterisations have emerged: “Last time America had a candidate this tough was Theodore Roosevelt,” said Elon Musk2. And pledged to give $45m per month to the Trumpster’s campaign.
Wry & Dry has just watched the Trumpster’s convention speech. A blend of a Nuremberg rally, a prayer revival meeting, and a Rolling Stones concert, it was surreal and self-indulgent. In first half the Trumpster was strangely subdued. Had his brush with death changed him? Err, no. The second half was full of the old Trumpster cant.
Without knowing what it means, the Trumpster will now see himself as a 21st century Übermensch.3 He will now become a more extreme parody of himself.
1 The theory is primarily attributed to the Scottish essayist, historian and philosopher Thomas Carlyle, who gave a series of lectures on heroism in 1840.
2 In 1912, the bullet that might have killed Teddy Roosevelt, arguably the greatest US president, hit his chest, was slowed by the contents of his pocket: a metal spectacles case and a copy of his very long speech. Roosevelt not only survived, but went on to give his speech. Bullets then were not what they are today. By the way, Teddy Roosevelt was very, very tough, but, ironically, the term “teddy bear“ was based on him.
3 Übermensch: the ideal superior man of the future who could rise above conventional, especially Christian, morality to create and impose his own values. It is a concept in the philosophy of German Friedrich Nietzsche, in his 1883 book, Thus Spoke Zarathustra.
2. “I’m shocked, shocked to find that the CFMEU is corrupt.”
Contrast and compare:
- In the movie Casablanca, the corrupt local police chief Captain Louis Renault, in closing down Rick’s bar and casino, said that he was “shocked, shocked to find that there is gambling going on in here” just before accepting his winnings. Click here for the clip.
- In Victoria, the premier and former minister for infrastructure Jacinta Allan said that she was “shocked, shocked to find that the CFMEU4 is corrupt” just before denying that she had enabled the open secret of the union’s thuggery and corruption to flourish.
The CFMEU has been the subject of a detailed investigation by journalists from the SMH/Age and Financial Review newspapers and the tabloid television programme 60 Minutes.
Sadly, the media investigations revealed only the tip of a very large iceberg of corruption, illegal activity and political manipulation, especially in Victoria and the ACT.
PM Albo, mindful of election prospects, has become Action Man and shouting to anyone who might listen that “something must be done.”
Premier Jacinta, mindful of election funding and her Upper House minority, presented a worried and concerned countenance for the cameras. That fooled only the sturdy ‘I stand with Dan’ collective.
Readers can be assured that in a few months, it will be back to business as usual.
4 The Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) is Australia’s largest union in construction, forestry, maritime, textile, clothing and footwear production. The CFMEU is affiliated with the Australian Council of Trade Unions and the Australian Labor Party.
3. “And now, the end is near…”
The problem for the Democrats is not the presidential election. That is already well lost. Melania’s recent absence can be explained by her shopping around for new curtains for the White House.
The matter is the other elections: for Congress; the US Senate and the House of Representatives. Democrat supporters not bothering to turn up to vote in a lost presidential race, also are not turning up to vote Democrat in the Senate and House.
It’s as though the Democrats are saying, “Let’s hold hands and jump.”
If the Trumpster gets control (and it’s the Trumpster getting control, not the Republicans) of Congress then his victory will be complete.
The words sung by Frank Sinatra5 will be swimming in Sleepy Joe’s addled brain.
When former president, Democrat hero and Nobel Prize winner O’Bama picks up his phone and calls to suggest it’s time to give yourself the DCM… it’s time.
Like the Titanic steaming in the night, Sleepy Joe has been proudly and stubbornly cruising toward the iceberg. Even as the shouts from those around him increased, he has resolved that all was well. There was no iceberg.
But a detailed report, released this afternoon and compiled by Democrats, showed Sleepy Joe forecast to lose in an Electoral College landslide.
Wry & Dry expects an announcement by Sunday.
5 “And now, the end is near. As I face the final curtain…” The opening lines of a very tacky and sentimental song, much played at funerals. My Way succeeded only because of Sinatra’s voice.
4. China’s deflating economy: what now?
Emperor Eleven has a problem. The GDP of his empire grew at only 4.7% in the year to the end of June. For most countries in the Western world, that would be Nirvana.
But not in China, for two reasons. Firstly, the target growth figure was 5%. An 0.3% miss in a country where targets must be met means thousand-year-old-egg on face.
Secondly, beneath the headline figure, the numbers are even worse. Nominal GDP, which makes no adjustment for inflation, again grew more slowly than the price-adjusted figure.
The gap implies that prices across the economy continue to fall. In fact, by this measure, China has suffered its fifth quarter of deflation in a row (see chart).
Deflation is not good news. It causes falling investment. Companies will hesitate to borrow and invest if falling prices mean that the money they must repay is worth more, in real terms, than the money they borrowed.
Emperor Eleven has a problem. Will he take the Bismarck approach6 and invade a neighbouring country to distract attention?
6 Otto von Bismarck was a Prussian statesman and diplomat who oversaw the unification of Germany. It’s complicated, but he essentially fabricated the cause of the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 to force the other German states into unification.
5. Not the grassy knoll, but a sloping roof
Stalwarts of OH&S rules would have been delighted that the US Secret Service didn’t have a presence on the roof from where the bullet that clipped the Trumpster’s ear was fired, because the slope of the roof made it unsafe.
“That building…has a sloped roof at its highest point, and so there’s a safety factor that would be considered… we wouldn’t want to put somebody up on a sloping roof,” said a Secret Service director.
This makes outstanding sense. OH&S rules are there for the protection of employees. Safety is the #1 priority. Imagine the outrage had a Secret Service agent fallen and hurt him/herself. And the insurance claim.
And this being the US, the injured agent would lawyer-up and sue the government. Possibly costing millions.
Wry & Dry hopes that this is seen as an exemplar of OH&S rules. And the need to follow them, no matter the circumstances.
6. UK – back to the future
King Charles looked as though he was suffering from either constipation or haemorrhoids as he gave the King’s Speech, i.e. read his new government’s legislative agenda. Or maybe it was just that the throne was so damnably uncomfortable.
But the 92 hereditary peers7 left who can sit in the House of Lords would have choked on their Pimm’s and lemonade with the news from their king that they will be given the DCM. “Back to the Club, please James.”
With the possible exception of Lord Bethell, who was a former nightclub owner. He will be probably be back at the Ministry of Sound, in Southwark. A club of a different type.
7 There are 814 hereditary peers, that is, dukes, earls, viscounts and barons. Currently, the 92 who sit in the House of Lords are 42 Conservatives, 28 crossbenchers, three LibDems, two Labor and 17 others. The Lords has 781 members; aside from the hereditary peers, all others are appointed by either the then government (Lords Temporal) or by the Church of England (Lords Spiritual). It is the world’s second largest legislative chamber, after the National People’s Congress of China.
7. Ruddster’s RDS
Never one to miss an opportunity to remind the world of his, well, existence, the Ruddster couldn’t resist an appearance at the coronation of the Trumpster.
There he was on the floor of the Republican convention in Milwaukee, telling the world that he was telling “many ambassadors in Washington [that] it’s really important to chill, just chill” and not be concerned that a Trumpster administration would dilute its role as world policeman.
“I say a lot, to the Euros along these lines, which is chill bill.”
And allow Wry & Dry to review the US experience of some of the ‘Euros’:
- UK: Dame Karen Pierce has been the UK’s person in Washington for four years, with 30 years diplomatic experience.
- France: Laurent Billi, a recent arrival, but with 17 years as a diplomat.
- Germany: Andreas Michaelis, 35 years diplomatic experience.
- Spain: Angeles Moreno Bua, 30 years diplomatic experience.
- Italy: Mariangela Zappia, 17 years as a diplomat.
Wry & Dry feels that these and other ‘Euro’ ambassadors would now be quite relieved with the Ruddster’s reassurance. After all he has been Australia’s ambassador to the US for as many as two years.
8. Wealth
Every country has a ‘wedding of the year’. Now, it seems that planet Earth had its peak nuptials last week, in India. The final instalment of the Anant Ambani-Radhika Merchant $600m weddingathon finished last Friday.
The bride and groom invited thousands of their besties, including Tony Blair, Borisconi, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Katy Perry, Justin Bieber and the inevitable pair of Kardashians.
In 2018, the groom’s older brother was married in a $100m event. Between the brothers’ weddings, the wealth of the family increased to $122bn, from $47bn. That’s a healthy 17% p.a.
It’s sort of weird, but it seems that most Indians viewed the event with pride, seemingly reflecting India’s coming of age on the world stage.
But where was the Ruddster? Has he lost his touch?
9. Musings – who is this dude?
Unarguably, the photograph of the decade.
The question the world is asking, who is the dude in the sunglasses?
Tall, square of jaw, true of eye (well, as much as Readers might think), sharp haircut, crisp white shirt. Sort of dreaming, staring at the camera, with a “you talkin’ to me?” look.
And the poor woman hovering underneath the Trumpster’s right armpit; the pained look on her face told the story: “Phew, this wasn’t in the job description.”
Finally, the man himself. What is he saying? Perhaps “Sieg Heil!”8
8 From the German: “victory brings salvation.”
Snippets from all over
1. Borisconi gives advice to the Trumpster
Boris Johnson urged Donald Trump not to abandon Ukraine after the former president picked a running mate who strongly opposes American support for the war. (UK Telegraph)
Wry & Dry comments: The Trumpster’s side-kick, J.D. Vance, is a hard-line Ukraine sceptic. To whom will the Trumpster listen?
2. France: not a going concern
France is “dangerously exposed” to a financial shock, the country’s national auditor has warned amid growing fears of a spending spree. (UK Telegraph)
Wry & Dry comments: The election of a new government where the left won more seats than either the centre or the right, but not a majority suggests a spending spree. Last month the European Commission gave France a slap on the wrist for breaking the EU’s fiscal rules.
3. Australia’s company tax rate much higher than average
Five UK climate activists have been given record jail sentences for a non-violent protest under a new law, each serving a term of at least four years for their role in shutting down the M25 motorway. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: The five Just Stop Oil protesters were found guilty of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance.
4. Italy to return to nuclear?
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right wing government is planning to reintroduce nuclear energy 35 years after Italy shut down its last atomic plant, in a bid to lower the country’s carbon emissions. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: The plan is to invest in small modular nuclear reactors which “could be operational within 10 years.”
5. Chinese burns
China’s trade surplus rose to $99bn in June, an all-time high. (Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: The government is throwing cash at manufacturing firms, propelling exports. At the same time weak domestic demand has depressed imports. The figures will spook China’s trading partners, who complain that the subsidies have allowed it to flood their markets with goods, including electric cars, at cut-throat prices. Hence, America and the EU are hiking up tariffs on Chinese products.
Data
- Australia: Unemployment grew to 4.1% from 4%.
- UK: inflation was unchanged at 2% in the year to June.
- China: GDP grew 4.7% for the year to end June, less than expected.
And to sooth your troubled mind…
“The water is very, very good. A little cool, but not so bad.”
Anne Hidalso, mayor of Paris, after swimming in the Seine, in an attempt to prove that it was safe to use for some events in next week’s Olympic Games.
Wry & Dry comments: Swimming in the Seine has been illegal since 1923, because of pollution.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!
Read this week’s edition of Investment Matters.
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