Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
But first, a snapshot of this week’s Investment Matters:
This week will be a deep dive into the health insurance sector, especially NIB.
To read Investment Matters, just click on the link at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Baku. The place to be.
Just four countries account for 60% of the world’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.1 Why then are 66,778 people from 195 countries (including climate change zealot, Chris Bowen) attending a jamboree (aka COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan to decide, for the 29th time, how to reduce emissions from fossil fuels?
Perhaps embarrassment that a fossil fuel rich country is hosting the event, for the second successive time, doesn’t matter when it’s a fortnight in, aye, looxury at someone else’s expense.
Or the embarrassment of the host, Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, telling delegates on Tuesday that fossil fuels are a “gift of God.”
Or the embarrassment of the host had the honour of being named corruption’s ‘Person of the Year’ by Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project in 2012.
Or the embarrassment that the host, in the 2013 presidential elections, was declared the winner with 73% of the vote, two days before a single ballot had been cast.
The joke of these summits is that so many people take them so seriously. Whatever Readers think of the arguments around climate change, the emissions needle will not be moved until China, USA, India and Russia agree to sacrifice their economic growth for a greater good.
And that’s not going to happen.
But, hey, the 66,778 delegates who wasted vast amounts of avgas jetting to Heydar Aliyev International Airport2, Buku, will fly away with the feeling of virtue from ‘making a difference’. Wry & Dry is not sure to what.
But wait, there’s more. Upgrade Albo has bid for COP31 to be held in Australia (and Pacific nations) – Turkey has also bid. With the announcement expected at Baku.
A win for Australia will give Upgrade Albo paroxysms of ecstasy in the lead up to the election. Another box ticked to keep the Greens at bay.
1 China 34%, USA 12%, India 8%, Russia 6%. Australia: 1%.
2 Named after the current president’s father, the former president.
Bigger than Luna Park
Childhood images of the entrance to Melbourne’s then ageing and now decrepit fun fair, Luna Park, rest on the massive mouth through which excited children would enter. The owners have decided to rename the entrance the Kevin Rudd Mouth.
Y’see, it probably wasn’t smart for a former Australian PM to call the Trumpster a ‘village idiot’, no matter how apt the comment. Nor to pen some other colourful words about the former and now upcoming US president. His large mouth is as limitless as his narcissism.
The fact that the Ruddster has, by all accounts, done a good job as Canberra’s man in Washington is no longer relevant. During his tenure, he failed to read the tea leaves of the possibility of the Trumpster’s return. Even up until a week before the election, when he finally erased all the nasty social media comments he had made.
And he failed to drop in for a cuppa, as it were, with the former President. Y’know, one former leader shooting the breeze with another. He didn’t.
Not even when the Trumpster was a clear favourite against Sleepy Joe. He forgot the moral of the sailor’s saw: “If you see the torpedo, it’s too late.” And the Trumpster is a torpedo, if a somewhat erratic one.
The Trumpster cannot fire the Ruddster (although he might freeze him out), nor would/should Upgrade Albo give him the DCM. But to pretend that it is all sweetness and light is folly.
As Wry & Dry suggested last week, it’s time that the Ruddster showed some humility and gave himself the DCM, under the clever guise of a mysterious ailment. Treated only in Australia, in a small village. Where he might be given the moniker, the village….
You’re moving out today
The Qatari government has, it seems, given up on successfully negotiating an end to the Gazan war. And have given Hamas’ leaders the DCM.
Essentially, Hamas has no intention of acceding to Israel’s requirement that it, Israel, re-occupy Gaza and for Hamas to be broken up in exchange for the remaining hostages and a ceasefire.
Qatar has served as a mediator since the conflict began, with some success last year with a temporary ceasefire and the release of some hostages. But that’s all.
Hamas’ office will likely relocate to Turkey.
Of course, it’s all moot. Most of Hamas’ leadership has “shuffled off this mortal coil.”3 Gaza itself is without any governing structure, being ‘managed’ by a blend of NGOs and large family clans. Not all of the latter have been sympathetic to Hamas, but fear of repercussions from Hamas’ brutal rule have, hitherto ensured their compliance. They might fill a bigger gap in future.
But for now, it remains to be seen how the Trumpster’s morning mood will determine his Gazan move.
3 Unarguably, the most difficult of Shakespeare’s phrases to fully interpret. It’s from Hamlet’s famous soliloquy, and refers to dying.
Greens’ fiscal fire
There was much fuss last week with Upgrade Albo’s decision to put a match to $16 billion of taxpayers’ funds sitting on the student debt relief bonfire.
But wait, there’s more idiocy. Just when Readers thought they were safe, the Greens announced it wished to add fuel to the bonfire. It wants to toss $81 billion more onto it, the cost of cancelling all student debt.
But wait, there’s even more. This is on top of its $53 billion over the next decade that the Greens’ free university and TAFE policy would cost.
The Greens have really moved into the fantasy world occupied by The Magic Pudding.4
4 A 1918 Australian children’s book written and illustrated by Norman Lindsay. It is a comic fantasy, and a classic of Australian children’s literature. The story tells of a magic talking pudding named Albert which, no matter how often he is eaten, always reforms in order to be eaten again. ‘Pudding’ is today termed ‘dessert’.
US Supreme Court – clinging to power
The desire of pioneering left wing American Supreme Court judge, Ruth Ginsberg, to cling to office ironically cemented right wing dominance of the court.5 Justice Ginsberg was a Democrat appointment (i.e. left wing, broadly defined), who died in office, aged 87.
The trouble was the Trumpster was in office when she inconveniently died. And he promptly appointed a conservative (the very talented but right wing Amy Barrett) as her successor. Had Justice Ginsberg retired when O’Bama was president, i.e. two years earlier, O’Bama would have appointed a left wing judge.
The issue has again arisen. One of the Court’s three left wing justices (there are now six right wing justices), Sonia Sotomayor, has just turned 70. And she says she has no plans to retire from the Supreme Court. Wry & Dry guesses that, well, who knows why.
But she’s just about to miss the chance to ensure a left wing judge succeeds her. Wry & Dry is not suggesting that Republicans will remain in the White House for more than four years, but never say never.
Wry & Dry ponders that the elderly stalwarts of the court’s right wing, Justices Thomas, 76, and Alito, 74, might retire before the 2026 midterm elections (just in case the Republican lose control of the Senate, which must confirm presidential nominees). Thus, allowing the Trumpster to appoint two younger right wing successors.
And thereby locking in the court’s right wing dominance for a generation.
5 The US Supreme Court is equivalent to the Australian High Court as the highest court of appeal. But there the similarity ends. In the US, appointments are political, the aim being to lock in ideology in a court that has taken a strongly interventionist role in Americans lives.
Cbusted
One of the many problems of not having a self-managed superannuation fund is that responsibility for retirement assets is delegated to third-party trustees. These trustees also have, inter alia, massive administrative systems to manage paperwork. And if the fund has tens of thousands of members the ticking of boxes can become time consuming. Especially if a fund member dies.
Which brings Wry & Dry to the problems of a large industry superannuation fund: Cbus. It seems that over 10,000 death and disability payments have been delayed well beyond the expected 90 days. And that Cbus knew about these ‘breaches’ and didn’t appropriately report itself. ASIC has become grumpy, and is now taking legal action against it.
Allow Wry & Dry to give Readers the whisper. The problem is widespread in industry funds. In an attempt to save costs, this sort of administration is outsourced. And the outsourcing company, in this case, is not up to speed. Consider the following…
Firstly, Cbus’ CEO was quick to toss its outsourced company under the bus, in a Senate hearing yesterday. Clearly forgetting which company is responsible for providing the service to members.
Secondly, managing superannuation investments and its administration is not a cheap task. The race to provide services at the cheapest possible price is folly. Investors want things to go right when, for example, a partner dies.
Superannuation funds can scale the investing side of their service. Hence the advertising boasts about a fund’s size. But these funds cannot scale administration matters when an investor needs to speak to a person. And an administrator needs to spend time managing an issue. Such as a death benefit payment.
It’s no longer about Gaza
A typical reaction to anti-Semitic violence is that it’s a sort-of revenge for Israeli action in Gaza. So, it’s sort-of-okay. Sort of.
But now there can be little doubt that it’s not just about Gaza. In Amsterdam over the weekend, thugs terrorised and assaulted Israeli soccer fans. The violence was preceded by messages on popular sites, calling for a Jodenjacht, or ‘Jew Hunt’.
And the follow-up on an Amsterdam tram with rioters in black yelling “Kanker Joden” – “cancer Jews.”
Go back to 7 October last year: Readers will recall the horror of reading what a Hamas terrorist said: “Dad, I’m calling you from the phone of a Jew. I just killed her and her husband, with my own hands, I killed 10.”
This is not anti-Zionism. It is not a denunciation of Israeli policy. Nor a shout out for Palestinian rights.
And now, in Michigan, USA, on Saturday night a group of masked men waved Nazi flags outside a community theatre. The theatre was hosting a performance of The Diary of Anne Frank. The action was videoed and streamed online.
Is it possible that the Gaza war merely stripped away the veneer of tolerance to reveal disgusting anti-Semitism?
Who’d be a politician?
Negative net likeability. Only political pollsters could create such an abomination of the language of Shakespeare.
And put a metric on being liked. Which they have.
Not one of the leaders of the three major parties is, on balance, liked. And the outliers are to be expected.
Does it matter?
Probably not. Part of the job description is to have the hide of a rhinoceros. But perhaps not its brains.
Oops. Then there is the Trumpster.
Gender apartheid
It seems sort of weird that when apartheid was in full swing in South Africa, the world effectively black-listed the government. The story of Mandela’s incarceration, release and assumption of leadership of the country is etched in the minds of many.
That apartheid was racially based. And most of the world was repulsed and took action (sanctions, trade bans, demonstrations, etc).
A new and insidious apartheid has evolved over the last four years – gender apartheid.
In Afghanistan, women are banned from all post-primary education, must wear the traditional burka, cannot speak in public, and cannot work.
These are Muslim women. Wry & Dry is curious as to why more moderate Muslim countries across the world are not voicing their opposition to such oppression.
Wry & Dry was moved to make these observations because of a review he read of an upcoming movie: Bread & Roses (to be released on 22 November).
Russified Ukraine6 – a ‘totalitarian hell’
The smooth noise that will emanate from the Trumpster about his relationship with Tsar Vlad will go unnoticed in that part of Ukraine now occupied by Russia.
To all intents, this is Russia. All remaining Ukrainians must take Russian citizenship by 1 January 2025. Anyone aged 14 or over will be deemed a foreigner and risks deportation. Without Russian citizenship it is not possible for a child to go to school, for any Ukrainian to receive medical treatment or social security benefits. Or to own property.
Some 3 million Ukrainians have fled the occupied area since 2022, leaving 3.5 million. Hence critical labour shortages, now partially filled by some 50,000 workers from Russia and Central Asia.
The extension of Tsar Vlad’s Empire is effectively irreversible.
6 The data source for this article is from the Economist 10 November 2024.
Snippets from all over
1. A Kennedy is back
Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy junior, a vaccine-sceptic and conspiracy theorist, to be America’s health secretary. (The Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: RFK, as he is known, is the son of the brother of JFK, whose afternoon drive through Dallas ended badly.
2. Jailed for negative Ukraine comments
A Russian doctor has been sentenced to 5 years in a penal colony for allegedly making negative comments about Russian soldiers in Ukraine. (BBC)
Wry & Dry comments: She was reported to police by the mother of a 7-year-old boy she had been treating.
3. Archbishop gets DCM
The Archbishop of Canterbury has resigned following criticism of his failure to prevent child sex abuse. (UK Telegraph)
Wry & Dry comments: Too late, as usual.
4. Unwavering support for Ukraine
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron pledged their “unwavering” support for Ukraine as the two leaders met in Paris days after a second Trump administration was elected in the US. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: France will wave from afar.
5. Grumpy Emperor Eleven
China expressed anger at the Philippines for adopting two new laws declaring sovereignty over disputed parts of the South China Sea. (The Economist)
Wry & Dry comments: Chinese officials said the country would take “all necessary measures” to “resolutely defend” its interests. And, of course, possession is nine-tenths of the law.
It figures
- 4.1%: Australia – unemployment rate
- 2.6%: US – inflation in the year to end October
And to soothe your troubled mind…
A miscellany of quotes from some of the people whom the Trumpster has appointed this week:
“There were fine people on both sides.” Pete Hegseth, a Fox News personality, appointed to Defence Secretary, commenting on protests against a white-supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017.
“He is not an enemy of the United States.” Tulsi Gabbard, a conspiracy-minded Democrat-turned-Republican, appointed to Director of National Intelligence, commenting after meeting Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s murderous dictator.
“The most valuable real estate in the world lies between the president’s ears.” Matt Gaetz, a flamboyant Floridan congressman, who has faced charges of sex-trafficking, appointed as Attorney General, speaking about… the Trumpster.
“Any product that needs a manual to work is broken.” Elon Musk, an entrepreneur, appointed as head of Department of Government Efficiency.
“Never in history have doctors deliberately treated patients with this kind of barbarism.” Robert F Kennedy Junior, appointed as Health Secretary, speaking about mandatory vaccinations.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.
Cheers!