Wry & Dry: a cynical and irreverent review of the week in politics, economics and life. For intelligent Readers who disdain the trivial.
Investment Matters
Craig Shepherd presents a deep dive on the warning signal that the latest inflation figures provide. He notes the crucial difference between the two types of inflation and suggests that it is very difficult for the RBA to influence one of them.
Readers should take the time to absorb this thoughtful article. he describes the current policy desert: “…a void in which monetary policy must simultaneously address long-term productivity challenges, intergenerational inequality, and global shocks.”
To read Investment Matters, you can still just click on the link at the bottom of this week’s Wry & Dry. Or here.
Wry & Dry’s musings…
… are this week a relocation from usual back page: And to soothe your troubled mind…
“In many ways the performances of Donald Trump remind me of male chimpanzees and their dominance rituals.”
Jane Goodall, the iconic British primatologist and conservationist, in a 2016 interview with The Atlantic, who died Wednesday at age 91.
Wry & Dry comments: Goodall’s insight wasn’t just a humorous comparison — she was offering a scientific lens on political behaviour, unsubtly suggesting that Trump’s style reflects primal strategies for asserting dominance rather than thoughtful leadership.
1. “… like a Colossus“
“Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world like a Colossus.”1 This is how Uncle Albo now wishes Australians to see him, after his world changing overseas trip. And boy, did he puff out his chest.
And why not? His recognition of Palestine as a sovereign nation played a part in Trumpster’s Nobel Peace Prize Plan (Gaza chapter). And it must be true, as he himself told us: “There is no doubt that recognition played a role in building momentum towards peace.” Sigh. Success has many parents.
Every Australian PM sees travelling overseas through a lens of Australia’s importance in world affairs. Thereby conflating that (a) Australia is bounteously blessed with natural resources and is a very ‘liveable’ place with (b) being a mover and shaker with influential governments in critical global issues.
Sadly, Uncle Albo’s junket showed not only misunderstanding of Australia’s global role but also an embarrassing naiveté, confusing hospitality with deference. Much of the Australian media fell into line. So, when Uncle Albo finally returned to this land of sweeping plains his newspaper clippings’ files was full of:
- His speech to the General Assembly of the UN (but no photos of the almost empty chamber)
- His selfie with Trumpster (Trumpster didn’t know who he was)
- Taking a four-pack of beer to a dinner at 10 Downing Street (thereby ignorantly turning to farce what was to be a serious meeting hosted by UK PM Starmer for him and the PMs of Canada, Spain and Iceland)
- His 15-minute speech at the UK Labour Party’s annual conference (ignoring that his was one of over 50 speeches given)
- Lunch with King Charles (but not a State Dinner)
Meeting Taylor Swift
The point in all of this is that winners are grinners. Had Uncle Albo narrowly won the last election, his passport would still be in his top drawer.
Of course, he should travel overseas and press the flesh. But a more worldly, less self-aggrandising sitting would have presented a better portrait.
The hard question that has yet to be answered is what did his trip achieve?
1 W. Shakespeare, Julius Caesar. spoken by Cassius in Act I, Scene II, speaking of Caesar.
2. Trumpster’s journey of revenge
“Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves.”2
Trumpster’s Nobel Peace Prize Plan (Gaza chapter) may work. Or may not. If it does work, it won’t last because Hamas is a hydra. If it doesn’t, blame Iran, the only large Middle Eastern country not on Trumpster’s approved list.
But there are other issues at play: Trumpster’s malevolence towards his political enemies, and a desire to extract revenge. And directing the US Justice Department to find charges against them.
Consider that soon after Trumpster called for former FBI director James Comey’s prosecution (20 September), Comey gets indicted (25 September). Comey led the FBI’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, including potential ties to Trumpster’s campaign.
Trumpster has said that the FBI should investigate billionaire George Soros (a major fundraiser for the Democrats); Democratic Attorney General for New York Letitia James (who led a major civil fraud case against him); his former national security adviser John Bolton (who keeps on criticising him); and Federal Reserve Chair Lisa Cook (who won’t heed his calls to lower interest rates).
Last week, he said that he would revoking broadcast licenses of networks that criticise him.
Comparing Trumpster to Nixon is being kind to Nixon. Perhaps better to compare to King Ferdinand II of Aragon and Queen Isabella I of Castile, the duo who commenced the Spanish Inquisition.
2 Maybe said by Confucius. But in the same way that every clever English quote was quoted by Churchill, so too every Chinese aphorism was said by Confucius.
3. Lipstick on the pig
Every federal treasurer will attempt to put lipstick on the pig of bad economic data. Grim Jim is no exception, as he dressed up high commodity prices (over which he has no control) as good economic management. Good grief!
When FY-25’s final budget outcome was released this week, he crowed that the deficit of $10bn was much less than expected.
Hold, the phone. The budget forecasts by Treasury were so conservative as to be farcical. The doyen of Australian economists Saul Eslake remarked that “If a Chief Financial Officer of a listed company gave such guidance as Treasury has given, they wouldn’t be long in the job.”
Federal spending blew out by an amazing 5.5%, after inflation, in FY-25. This was almost double the previous year.
Readers might ponder the added cost of the so-called ‘off-budget’ items worth over $100bn over the next four years: Snowy 2.0, the NBN, Whyalla Steelworks bailout, Clean Energy Finance Corporation, National Reconstruction Fund, Housing Australia Future Fund, university student debt write-offs, etc.
All of these need to be paid for by We-The-Australian-Taxpayers.
Grim Jim needs to be careful. There is a good chance that the revenue boom is over. And outlays always end up higher than expected.
He will need to reach for more lip gloss next year.
4. Trumpster on demand
Last week, the few Australians who were glued to their television screens to watch Uncle Albo’s speech to the UN missed an earlier, bigger show. Trumpster on demand.
But, firstly, allow Wry & Dry to remind Readers that before Trumpster took the podium, the previous record for the longest speech at the UN was four hours and 29 minutes. That was in 1960, when Cuba’s revolutionary Fidel Castro, then a mere 34 years old, denounced imperialism, colonialism and other isms. Except communism.
As Trumpster’s speech approached the one-hour mark, money was changing hands on whether Castro’s record would be broken. He was in full flight, lambasting the state of the Scottish countryside (wind turbines), London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan (supporter of sharia law), mass migration (destroying the “soul of the west”) and climate change advocates (“feckless liberals”).
And he expressed his hurt feelings that the UN had rejected his $400m bid in 2001 to refurbish the UN building. Weep.
But, to everyone’s relief, after 57 minutes he noticed that there were more empty seats facing him than when he started. And sat down.
Trumpster will look back and regret that he failed to outlast Castro. Once he finds out who Castro was.
5. A poor picture
There is information in the below chart.
6. Italian freeze
News that the Italian government is considering ‘freezing’ Italy’s retirement age at 67 years is causing conniptions.
The back story is that Italy’s retirement age is linked automatically to the change in life expectancy. That age changes every two years. In Australia, the pension age is 67 but increases are not automatic. An increase can only be done by a change in the law.
The despair is from the bean counters. Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio would rise to 139%, up from 132% today, if the freeze proceeded. And Italy has the largest proportion of over-65s in the EU (24.3%). But wait, there’s more. Italy is one of eight EU countries that population of which is declining. More workers are needed to help pay taxes to support the pensioners.
The situation is not helped by just 46% of Italians aged between 50 and 74 actually working.
But if the freeze does not proceed, there will be a pension age increase in January 2027. There will not be joy from those still in work force. Well, for the three months by which the pension age will increase.
But there is good news out there. The government expects Italy’s budget deficit to fall to 3% of GDP this year. This will cause happiness in the piazzas across the country, as this figure is better than that of France (5.4%) and UK (5.3%).
7. Melbourne can crow about something
The venerable Economist magazine has just released its latest index of the world’s most liveable cities. And in spite of Melbourne’s soaring crime rate, the gateway to the south pole finds itself in fourth place.
Source: The Economist
8. Dickie Bird
Wry & Dry generally avoids sporting matters. There has been one exception – he was compelled to write a note reflecting on the life and career of Max Walker.3 Big Max was a great personality with a great sense of humour. That humour added colour to the grey of some of his test cricket and AFL colleagues.
And now, another exception. Harold ‘Dickie’ Bird died last week. A peerless cricket umpire, he had the eccentricity of yesteryear, a quick wit and a generous spirit. He actually played 93 first class games (for Yorkshire), before a knee injury truncated his career. Umpiring then followed.
Each of Walker and Bird showed character, self-effacement and humour that is so rare in a monetised sporting world.
3Bowling medium pace seamers, Walker played 34 test matches for Australia, and took 138 wickets at the decent average of 27.47. He also played 93 games for Melbourne Football Club.
Snippets from all over
1. Antisemites kill two Jews in UK synagogue attack
Police in Britain named Jihad al-Shamie, “a British citizen of Syrian descent”, as the suspected attacker in a car-ramming and stabbing at a synagogue in Manchester, an English city. Two people were killed and four injured in the attack on Yom Kippur, a Jewish holiday. (Various)
Wry & Dry comments: This event will embolden the lunatics from both the left and right.
2. Trumpster versus woke military
Mr Trump and Pete Hegseth, America’s secretary of war, railed against wokeness at a hastily arranged gathering in Virginia of American military leaders from around the world. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Mr. Hegseth added value by criticising diversity initiatives and “fat generals” at the Pentagon.
3. Trumpster versus Democrats
President Donald Trump has threatened to slash more US agencies on the back of the federal shutdown that began this week, ahead of a meeting on Thursday with Russ Vought, his budget director who has long championed shrinking the government. (Financial Times)
Wry & Dry comments: Brilliant tactic by Trumpster: fire thousands of federal workers and close government infrastructure and clean energy programmes in Democrat-controlled states.
4. Tsar Vlad calls up 100,000 men
Vladimir Putin has called up more than 100,000 Russian men for military service in what amounts to the biggest autumn conscription since 2016. (UK Telegraph)
Wry & Dry comments: Tsar Vlad needs more meat for the Ukraine meat-grinder.
5. Moldova defies Tsar Vlad
Moldova, a republic of 2.4m people squeezed between Ukraine and Romania, defied Russia by re-electing its pro-European government. The Kremlin spent tens of millions of dollars trying to subvert the elections held on September 28th. (The Times)
Wry & Dry comments: The result was less a sign of approval for the ruling party’s policies or its lacklustre reforms than of fear of losing the country’s independence to Russia.
It figures
- AAA: Australia. S&P affirmed Australia’s credit rating.
- 3.6%: Australia. The cash rate target that remained unchanged.
- 3.00%: Australia. Inflation in 12 months to August, up from 2.8%.
And to soothe your troubled mind…
“I’d like to apologise for the rude and mean-spirited behaviour from our American crowd at Bethpage. As a former player, (Ryder Cup) captain and as an American, I am ashamed of what happened.”
Tom Watson, a legend of golf (five British Opens, two US Masters and one US Open championships), commenting on the behaviour of US spectators at last weekend’s Ryder Cup (which America lost).
Wry & Dry comments: Only a little bit worse than the Lords’ members.
Disclaimer
The comments in Wry & Dry do not necessarily reflect those of First Samuel, its Directors or Associates.