Rates, Inflation and Retail: Reading the Signals Behind the RBA’s Cup Day Hold
At Investment Matters, we try to avoid focusing on the minutiae of economic and interest-rate policy. Consuming seemingly endless writing on perceptions of the Reserve Bank (RBA) and changes in the underlying data may be a staple for the investment team, but not necessarily critical to Readers.
But there are exceptions, and the changes over the last week, including the RBA’s decision to hold the cash rate at 3.6% on Melbourne Cup Day, as widely expected, deserve attention due to their impact on markets and the Australian economy.
AI Capital Allocation and Market Implications
This week’s Investment Matters examines the topic of AI investment within a historical framework of overinvestment and the misallocation of resources.
A rash of new investment in artificial intelligence in the US, especially by Nvidia, the chipmaker, and OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, has been announced in recent months. Investment in data centres and IT helps explain a significant portion of overall US growth in recent years. But markets have begun to concentrate on the financial engineering and cross-company relationships that funded this investment.
September CPI: Implications for Markets and Housing
The September CPI print has shifted the narrative surrounding monetary policy in Australia. While global inflation has shown tentative signs of moderation, the Australian experience highlights the structural persistence of price pressures in non-tradable goods and services.